I went 14-10-1 against the spread last week.
The college football landscape looks and feels a little different now that we saw the outcome of the Georgia/Notre Dame and Wisconsin/Michigan games. We can probably write off Michigan being any sort of Big Ten championship contender after that poor performance.
We are also making a shortlist of potential Heisman candidates. No one is running away with it yet, but conference play is just getting started. We should be able to cross off a few guys after this week.
We at ‘America’s White Boy’ pick 25 college football games against the spread in Week 5 of the 2019-20 NCAA Football season (September 28th,, 2019). We also pick some smaller conference games.
Duke at Virginia Tech (-2.5) – My pick is Duke Blue Devils
The Hokies are starting a rebuild and don’t have a ton of impact players that you’ll see play at the next level. They lost to the bad Boston College squad early this season and played low level teams the last two weeks. Duke started the year out getting trounced by Alabama 42-3, but have looked much better the last two weeks. Duke QB Quentin Harris has a pretty good arm and can do damage with his legs. The Blue Devils are a bit underrated due to a lopsided 42-3 defeat on their record. Duke is a better overall team than Va Tech and should keep this close or upset the Hokies, so I’m taking the points.
Northwestern at Wisconsin (-24) – My pick is Wisconsin Badgers
Wisconsin is coming off a huge win against Michigan. They spanked them and the Wolverines needed a couple late scores to make the final score look less embarrassing. Northwestern is far from the same team that competed for the Big Ten championship last year. They don’t get any consistency from their quarterback and their defense is below average in the Big Ten. This line does seem a bit inflated due to the Michigan win, but I’ll still bite on it.
Rutgers at Michigan (-27.5) – My pick is Rutgers Scarlet Knights
Speaking of Michigan, they are licking their wounds after getting exposed by Wisconsin. Their offense is about at the same level as most Jim Harbaugh Michigan offenses (which is below average), but their defense is far from any other team Harbaugh has coached in Ann Arbor. The defense can’t bail out the offense and they aren’t starting out in favorable field position. Rutgers is usually a doormat for Michigan, but this game should be within 28 points as the Scarlet Knights will score a few times to keep it within range.
Middle Tennessee at Iowa (-24) – My pick is Iowa Hawkeyes
I love me some Iowa QB Nate Stanley. I’m higher on him than many of the projected quarterbacks in the 2020 NFL Draft. The Hawkeyes will bounce back from the close call against Iowa State. The Blue Raiders stacked their non-conference schedule with some good teams, but they will be overmatched in this game. I’m taking Iowa to cover at home.
USC at Washington (-10) – My pick is USC Trojans
USC is down to their third-string quarterback after Kedon Slovis was knocked out of last week’s game against Utah. Junior QB Matt Fink replaced Slovis and played pretty well. He threw for 351 yards and three passing touchdowns. The offense ran better under Fink than it did for most of the time Slovis was in the game. Washington has been pretty damn good so far this year. QB Jacob Eason had huge shoes to fill by taking over after QB Jake Browning graduated. He is a better athlete and has a higher ceiling than Browning. The Huskies should win the game, but I liked what I saw from Fink last week. I have to take the points.
Clemson at North Carolina (+26.5) – My pick is North Carolina Tar Heels
North Carolina is a middle-of-the-road ACC team. They should probably be 21-point underdogs, but due to their back-to-back losses to Wake Forest and Appalachian State, they aren’t getting any love from Vegas. A loss to App State isn’t embarrassing this year as they are a good team. I think no matter what number Vegas attaches to Clemson’s point spread, they will still get action on Clemson. They are right up there with Alabama as a public team. The Tigers should easily beat the Tar Heels, but this point spread is a handful of points too bloated. I’m taking the points.
Virginia at Notre Dame (-11.5) – My pick is Notre Dame Fighting Irish
The Irish are coming off a tough loss to Georgia. They were in the game up until the end, but it just wasn’t meant to be. They just couldn’t stop Georgia’s running game. I was also impressed with Irish QB Ian Book. He held his own against Georgia’s defense, but made two mistakes. They should go back to covering against most ACC teams. Virginia is good, but the Irish defense should clamp down and secure the cover at home.
SMU at South Florida (+7) – My pick is SMU Mustangs
SMU is an improved team with Texas-transfer QB Shane Buechele under center for the Mustangs. It helps that this week he faces a bad South Florida team. They’ve been destroyed in both games against fellow FBS teams. The Bulls are going to have a rough year against most teams in their conference. I’m taking SMU to cover the point spread.
UConn at UCF (-43) – My pick is UCF Knights
UConn is one of the worst teams in the FBS. They are coming off a 38-3 loss to Indiana, which isn’t on par with the talent of recent Hoosier squads. UCF has way more weapons on offense and want to smoke UConn to forget their one-point loss to Pitt. This point spread could be met by halftime. Let’s hope UCF keeps the gas pedal to the floor all game.
Akron at UMass (+6.5) – My pick is Akron Zips
This is where we pick a game between smaller conference teams. These two teams are in the bottom twenty teams in the FBS. UMass is pretty bad at every facet of the game, but Akron can move the ball through the air. That should be the factor in this game. UMass’s secondary is beyond awful and Akron should cover on the road.
QUICK HITS
Arizona State at California (-4.5) – My pick is California
Wake Forest at Boston College (+6.5) – My pick is Wake Forest
FAU at Charlotte (+1) – My pick is Charlotte
Iowa State at Baylor (+2.5) – My pick is Iowa State
Cincinnati at Marshall (+3) – My pick is Cincinnati
East Carolina at Old Dominion (-2.5) – My pick is Old Dominion
UL-Lafayette at Georgia Southern (+3.5) – My pick is UL-Lafayette
Stanford at Oregon State (+3.5) – My pick is Stanford
Kansas State at Oklahoma State (-5) – My pick is Kansas State
Mississippi State at Auburn (-11) – My pick is Auburn
BONUS PICKS!
La Tech at Rice (+10) – My pick is Louisiana Tech
UAB at Western Kentucky (+3) – My pick is UAB
UNLV at Wyoming (-9) – My pick is Wyoming
Colorado State at Utah State (-23.5) – My pick is Colorado State
Washington State at Utah (-5) – My pick is Washington State
Sweetbob’s college football picks against the spread record in previous seasons:
2013: 134-79-8
2014: 148-118-4
2015: 149-118-3
2016: 196-145-6
2017: 183-159-13
2018: 177-157-6
2019: 54-43-3
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About the Author…
Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on Twitter at @Sweetbob.