I started off strong this year and but just went 12-12-1 against the spread last week.
The key to staying hot while betting college football game is to not get too bogged down on the last week’s games. It’s important to stick with your own personal rankings and know when to bail on a team. Well, after the first couple weeks of the season, it is about time to think about jumping off a bandwagon. There won’t be much value on teams that are perceived to be unbeatable. You may have another week or two to ride them before the value disappears.
We at ‘America’s White Boy’ pick 25 college football games against the spread in Week 3 of the 2019-20 NCAA Football season (September 14th,, 2019). We also pick some smaller conference games.
Ohio State at Indiana (+17.5) – My pick is Ohio State Buckeyes
Indiana has been a smart bet against the spread against Ohio State for years. The Hoosiers are 7-1 ATS the spread against the Buckeyes in their last eight games. I think Vegas knows bettors recognize this and are giving Ohio State a few extra points to entice bettors a little to get the bets 50/50. This year’s Indiana team doesn’t have the same offensive line and backfield talent as in year’s past. On the flipside, Ohio State’s offense is coming off a 42-0 clobbering of Cincinnati. I like OSU QB Justin Fields and think he should do well against Indiana’s front-seven. I’m taking the Bucks to cover in Bloomington.
Stanford at UCF (-9) – My pick is UCF Knights
Before the Stanford/USC game, I would have probably picked Stanford if this line versus UCF was -9, but I don’t have much faith in Stanford’s offense to keep up with UCF. The Knights will find ways to score, even on a top-tier defense…they are just that good. Stanford would need to find the endzone a couple more times than expected just to keep this game interesting. I also don’t like the travel to Orlando for the Cardinal. I’m taking UCF to cover at home.
Iowa at Iowa State (+1.5) – My pick is Iowa Hawkeyes
I really like what Iowa is doing right now. Iowa QB Nate Stanley has developed into one of the best QBs in the Big Ten. They also use a variety of running backs to just attack the front-seven until they are tired. The Hawkeyes are a legit contender in the Big Ten this year. I usually stay away from the yearly Iowa/Iowa State games due to their games being so crazy in the past, but I feel pretty confident about Iowa right now.
Ohio at Marshall (-4.5) – My pick is Marshall Thundering Herd
Marshall impressed me a lot last week. They held their own against Boise State and held them to just 14 points. They lost the game, but they were supposed to lose by much more. They had some issues on offense against Boise State’s solid defense. They won’t face the same level of D against Ohio. The Bobcats are a middle-of-the-road MAC team and Marshall should cover at home.
Florida at Kentucky (+9) – My pick is Kentucky Wildcats
Kentucky finally beat Florida last year for the first time in decades. They were getting close in recent years, so they finally have the monkey off their backs. The Wildcats lost some talent to the NFL this offseason, but they have played great so far. QB Terry Wilson Jr. blew out his knee and will miss the remainder of the year. They relied on Troy-transfer QB Sawyer Smith after Wilson went down with the injury against Eastern Michigan. He is a better passer than Wilson, but Kentucky will miss the elusiveness and speed Wilson had out of the backfield. I still think they can sneak up on the Gators and make this a close game, so I’m taking the points.
TCU at Purdue (+2.5) – My pick is Purdue Boilermakers
Purdue will not win games on defense this year. It’s just not going to happen, so QB Elijah Sindelar will have to win games with his arm. He did just that last week against Vanderbilt. He threw for over 500 yards and threw for five touchdowns with only one interception. If he can limit his picks, I believe he can make this a close game against TCU. If Purdue can make a stop or two, they may even win this game outright.
Clemson at Syracuse (+28) – My pick is Clemson Tigers
Syracuse got hosed by Maryland last week by 43 points. I knew Maryland was the better team, but I was not expecting such a dominating win. Clemson is coming into this game with wins over Georgia Tech and Texas A&M. Clemson QB Trevor Lawrence has not looked the best in either game. I believe he turns it around on Saturday against Syracuse’s soft defense, so I’m taking Clemson to cover.
Oklahoma at UCLA (+22.5) – My pick is Oklahoma Sooners
Sooners QB Jalen Hurts looks like Kyler Murray 2.0 this year. The Sooners have been dominant on offense and their games haven’t even been competitive. UCLA are currently 0-2 with an offense that appears to not have the talent to properly be efficient in the scheme. It’s going to take another year or two to get the kind of athletes for a typical Chip Kelly offense. Oklahoma is a juggernaut and should cover at UCLA.
Texas Tech at Arizona (+2) – My pick is Texas Tech Red Raiders
Arizona QB Khalil Tate has had flashes of brilliance, but he has widely been inconsistent all throughout his collegiate career. We keep waiting for him to ‘get it’ and turn into a Heisman candidate, but I don’t think it’s going to happen for him. Texas Tech QB Alan Bowman has improved from last year. It helps that his defense has helped him out by giving him decent field position. This game could be close, but I think Texas Tech is just a little bit more balanced and should cover on the road.
FAU at Ball State (+3) – My pick is Florida Atlantic Owls
This is where we pick a game between smaller conference teams. FAU started off the year against two monster opponents, Ohio State and Central Florida. They were beaten in both games, but they were no embarrassed. Ball State went the easier route with a neutral site loss to Indiana and a gimme game versus Fordham. Ball State lost some talent via transfer and they have a huge talent discrepancy on offense compared to a year ago. FAU should go into Muncie and cover against Ball State.
QUICK HITS
NC State at West Virginia (+6.5) – My pick is NC State
Louisville at Western Kentucky (+10) – My pick is Louisville
North Carolina at Wake Forest (-3) – My pick is North Carolina
Pittsburgh at Penn State (-17) – My pick is Penn State
Eastern Michigan at Illinois (-7) – My pick is Illinois
Maryland at Temple (+7) – My pick is Maryland
Kansas State at Mississippi State (-7.5) – My pick is Kansas State
Air Force at Colorado (-3.5) – My pick is Colorado
East Carolina at Navy (-7.5) – My pick is Navy
USC at BYU (+4) – My pick is USC
BONUS PICKS!
North Texas at California (-14) – My pick is California
Southern Miss at Troy (-2.5) – My pick is Troy
Louisiana Tech at Bowling Green (+11.5) – My pick is La Tech
Georgia State at Western Michigan (-9) – My pick is Georgia State
Florida State at Virginia (-7.5) – My pick is Virginia
Sweetbob’s college football picks against the spread record in previous seasons:
2013: 134-79-8
2014: 148-118-4
2015: 149-118-3
2016: 196-145-6
2017: 183-159-13
2018: 177-157-6
2019: 29-19-2
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About the Author…
Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on Twitter at @Sweetbob.