I went 7-5-1 against the spread last week.

I’ve historically done very well on Thanksgiving. I’ve been perfect the last two Turkey Days. I’ve at least went 2-1 every year for as long as I can remember. I’ve just been able to find value with these lines.

…and I hope I didn’t just jinx it.

There are fifteen games on the schedule for the first time in awhile. This is the final week for byes, so we are going back to a sixteen game schedule next week.

Will Matthew Stafford lay an egg on Thanksgiving?

We pick every NFL game against the spread and throw out a few upsets in Week 12 of the 2018 NFL season.

Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions (+3) – My pick is Chicago Bears

The Lions snapped a three-game losing streak with a 20-19 win at home against the Panthers. It wasn’t pretty, but the Lions rode RB Kerryon Johnson and WR Kenny Golladay. Johnson sprained his knee in the win and won’t be available on Thursday. The Bears have four-straight (4-0 ATS), but come in with a hobbled quarterback. QB Mitchell Trubisky is dealing with a shoulder injury, but is expected to play on Thursday. The Bears are on a roll and the Lions are barely scraping by without WR Golden Tate. I’m taking the Bears to cover in Detroit.

Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys (-7.5) – My pick is Washington Redskins

The Redskins lost QB Alex Smith for the season when he broke his leg last week. QB Colt McCoy came in nearly led them to a win, but a late field goal sealed the win for the Texans. The Redskins defense is still very good and will be a big factor on Thursday. The Cowboys have won back-to-back games and have relied heavily on RB Ezekiel Elliott in those wins. I expect a battle of the running backs with Adrian Peterson and Elliott going toe-to-toe. I don’t expect a high-scoring affair and will be within a touchdown. I like the Redskins defense a little too much, so I’m taking the points.

Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints (-13) – My pick is New Orleans Saints

The Saints have been on fire since RB Mark Ingram returned from suspension in Week 5. They have been perfect outright AND against the spread since getting him back. This is the first double-digit point spread the Saints have faced since weeks 1 and 2 (which they both failed to cover). The Saints have been embarrassing good teams since those early blunders. The Falcons have a good offense, but it’s hard to believe that they will keep this one close. The Saints have been so great that Vegas could inflate this point spread by a couple more points and I’d still think about taking the Saints.

Seattle Seahawks at Carolina Panthers (-3.5) – My pick is Seattle Seahawks

The old strategy of betting against Seattle on the road hasn’t paid off this season. The Seahawks are 3-0 against the spread in their last three road games. I really like their running attack now that they have three running backs that are sharing the rock. Their new running attack helped them to beat the Packers last week and stay close with the Rams the week before. The Panthers are a very good home team this season and have won every game there this season (4-1 ATS at home). They are coming off two bad losses on the road. They were smoked by the Steelers and then lost a nail-biter at Detroit. The Seahawks are playing better football overall right now. I have to take the points.

Oakland Raiders at Baltimore Ravens (-10.5) – My pick is Baltimore Ravens

The Ravens started rookie QB Lamar Jackson last week and he ran the ball, a lot. Baltimore defeated Cincinnati 24-21 and many thought the rookie was the reason they got the win. The Ravens have yet to decide if he will start this game, but it’s unclear if QB Joe Flacco will start. The Raiders got their second win of the season last week with a 23-21 win at Arizona. No one on the Raiders stood out, but Oakland is good enough to squeak out wins against bad teams. The Raiders have been blown out a few times this season, and in those games, they have been unable to stop the run. If the Ravens use a similar gameplan this week with Jackson, I expect a HEAVY running attack. I’m going to roll the dice with Jackson and take the Ravens to cover.

Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals (-3) – My pick is Cincinnati Bengals

The Bengals just completed an insanely tough stretch of games. They faced the Steelers, Chiefs, Bucs, Saints and Ravens. They only managed to go 1-4 in those games (1-4 ATS). This is the first winnable game they’ve had since early-October. The Bengals may be without WR A.J. Green again (they have yet to say if he will return this week), but WR Tyler Boyd has been solid in his absence. The Browns are coming off a bye and used RB Nick Chubb a lot in their win versus the Falcons. I don’t expect the Browns to stray much from that gameplan. The Bengals have been run on a lot during this tough stretch of games. The Bengals should look much better this week than they have in a long time. Their level of opponent has dropped and think they should cover at home.

New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles (-6) – My pick is New York Giants

The Eagles haven’t looked like the same team that won the Super Bowl last year. They are coming off one of the worst losses in franchise history. They were smoked by the Saints 48-7. In their defense, the Saints are clicking right now and they would do the same against many other NFL teams. The Giants have won back-to-back games and have strung together two wins for the first time in a long time. QB Eli Manning looked great against the Bucs last week. He was 17 for 18 for 231 yards with two passing touchdowns. The Giants are using RB Saquon Barkley more and Manning has been accurate as hell. The Eagles are reeling and it’s not a great time for a division rival to come to town. I think this game will be close, so I’m taking the points.

San Francisco 49ers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3.5) – My pick is Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Bucs had to use QB Jameis Winston last week after QB Ryan Fitzpatrick shit the bed against the Giants. Winston was able to move the ball well and looked like a starter in this league. The Bucs have lost seven out of their last eight games (1-6-1 ATS). The market is about to correct on them. The Niners had one very good game on a Thursday and everyone assumed Niners QB Nick Mullens was good. I’m not sold on him and he may not be able to capitalize on the Bucs weak pass defense. The Bucs are underrated right now due to their recent poor performance against the spread. This line is low enough that I’m taking the Bucs to cover.

New England Patriots at New York Jets (+9.5) – My pick is New England Patriots

The Patriots have historically under-performed against the Jets. The Patriots haven’t covered at MetLife Stadium against the Jets in years. I believe this is their year since the Jets offense is butt. In the Jets most recent game, they lost to the Bills 41-10…in a game they were favored to win by a touchdown. Both teams are coming off their bye and the Patriots will be fully-prepared for the lowly Jets. I’m taking the Pats to cover on Sunday.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Buffalo Bills (+3) – My pick is Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jags have lost six-straight games (0-4-2 ATS) and are coming off a tough final-second loss against the Steelers. Their defense played great for three quarters, but they snoozed in the fourth. The glimmering light of hope was the performance by RB Leonard Fournette. He played great and his hamstring didn’t bother him at all. The Bills had last week off, but recently looked much better with QB Matt Barkley at quarterback. He carved up the Jets, but he shouldn’t have an easy time against the Jaguars. Jacksonville is another team that the market is about to correct on, so I’m taking them to cover.

Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Chargers (-12) – My pick is Arizona Cardinals

The Chargers are a good team, but they have been playing down to their competition this season. They haven’t been blowing out very many lowly teams and have let teams like the Niners and the Bills stay within double-digits late in the game. The Cardinals aren’t a very good team overall, but they do have some very talented players spread on both sides of the ball. Also, their defense is underrated with DE Chandler Jones causing a lot of trouble with his pass rush. The Chargers should win the game, but I’m taking the points.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Denver Broncos (+3) – My pick is Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers are on a six-game winning streak (5-0-1 ATS). Last week, they need a last-second rushing touchdown from QB Ben Roethlisberger to keep their streak alive. The Broncos had their own come-from-behind win last week. Denver kicker Brandon McManus kicked a 34-yard field goal as time expired to defeat the Chargers 23-22. They needed a big game from rookie RB Phillip Lindsay. The Broncos are no pushovers, but the Steelers are playing some really good football right now. It’s hard for me to pick against them since their are loaded with talent on offense and their defense is underrated. I have to take Pittsburgh to cover on the road.

Miami Dolphins at Indianapolis Colts (-9) – My pick is Indianapolis Colts

This Colts team has improved so much over the course of the season. They are on a four-game winning streak (3-1 ATS) and QB Andrew Luck hasn’t been sacked in five games. Their young offensive line is getting the job done. Luck has been able to move the ball well against some really good defenses. The Dolphins have had issues at quarterback as backup QB Brock Osweiler has been starting for injured QB Ryan Tannehill (shoulder). It’s unknown if Tannehill is available to start, but as of two weeks ago, this game was the one they were targeting. Even if Tannehill starts, I still like the Colts to cover. They are just playing too well right now.

Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings (-3.5) – My pick is Minnesota Vikings

The Vikings have been an inconsistent team this season. They have lost two of their last three games, but they haven’t play poorly in a game since their Week 3 loss to Buffalo. They are coming off a five-point loss against a very good Bears team. The Packers are also coming off a loss and haven’t won a road game all season. They just couldn’t stop Seattle’s rushing attack and that’s been a recurring issue for them this year. The last time these teams faced off, it ended in a 29-29 tie in Week 2. Both teams are playoff-caliber teams, but they need to string together a few more wins to get back in the hunt. The Vikings offense is playing better than the Packers right now. I also think Vikings CB Xavier Rhodes will cause headaches for Packers QB Aaron Rodgers.

Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans (OFF) – My pick is TBD

The health of Titans QB Marcus Mariota is up in the air right now. I will make my pick when the betting line is back on the board.

*These picks are for entertainment purposes

Sweetbob’s NFL picks against the spread record in previous seasons:
2013: 133-95-10
2014: 131-114-9
2015: 150-108-9
2016: 143-120-13
2017: 144-115-16
2018: 82-69-10

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About the Author…

Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on Twitter at @Sweetbob