The NFL moved their extra-point try back to a 33-yard attempt before the 2015 season. They first tried it during the preseason and found that moving it back gave the game a little extra drama that extra-points lacked. Also, kickers weren’t having any trouble connecting with the point after touchdown, the move wasn’t expected to have much more than just the appearance of drama.
Fans and NFL officials realized that kickers were becoming too darn good. Not only were kickers rarely missing extra points, but field goal success rate beyond 45 yards was at an all-time high. You would think that moving back extra-points to the 15-yard line wouldn’t be a huge change, but kickers started to miss them more than expected.
Through eight weeks of football, there have been 32 missed extra-points. In Week 8 alone, there were five missed, two in the Bengals/Bucs game on Sunday.
With all the missed extra-points the last three-and-a-half years, has the new rule cost bettors a win from what used to be a gimme point?
Extra-point tries are being missed at roughly the same rate as the last few years, but a handful of kickers have already lost their jobs due to missed extra points (and a few timely missed field goal attempts). The ‘social media era’ has allowed shorter clips, like missed extra points, to be shared by millions of fans. It still feels like an extra-point miss is a big deal, but on average, there are five missed extra-point tries every week.
There could also be extra attention placed on missed extra-points due to more people betting on the NFL in the United States. A number of states have legalized sports betting, and many more states are working on legislation to pass laws to ease their stance on sports betting. You can check out USALegalBetting to see if your state could soon be the next state to legalize sports betting. Online sports betting is still the most used method in the U.S., but as more states see the potential tax revenue from legalizing sports betting, in-person betting could make a huge gain in the coming years.
Here are the totals of missed extra-points over the last five years.
- 2018 – 32 (through eight weeks)
- 2017 – 64
- 2016 – 73
- 2015 – 67
- 2014 – 8 (year before the extra-point rule change)
With this many extra-point misses, has any really affected a point spread win/loss?
Here are the missed field goal leaders this season.
- Chandler Catanzaro (Tampa Bay) – 4
- Caleb Sturgis (LA Chargers) – 4
- Chris Boswell (Pittsburgh) – 3
- Mason Crosby (Green Bay) – 2
- Graham Gano (Carolina) – 2
- Adam Vintieri (Indianapolis) – 2
I went through every extra-point miss this season and decided if any possibly affected the winner against the spread. Out of all of the extra points missed this season, there were only two that may have affected the point spread winner.
The first one was in Week 6 in the Bucs/Falcons game. Bucs kickers Chandler Catanzaro missed an extra-point in the first quarter, which affected the gameplan throughout the rest of the game. The Bucs lost 34-29 and lost against the spread by two points. If Catanzaro made the early extra-point kick, it could have swayed the betting outcome.
The second missed extra-point that may have affected the betting outcome was in the Ravens/Saints game in Week 7. Ravens kicker Jason Tucker missed a late PAT that would have forced overtime. The Ravens were -2.5 favorite in this game, so getting the game into overtime could have meant a win against the spread for the Ravens…but Tucker missed and the Saints covered.
A few of the PAT misses that happened this season were ‘close games’, but honestly, most have zero effect on the betting outcome of games. Most happened in blowout wins/losses that had double-digit winning margins with small point spreads.
If a team has a kicker who struggles with extra-points, should you factor that in your betting strategy?
This is a tricky one, but if a kicker is struggling with extra-point tries, they are probably having trouble hitting regular field goals. The single-point he will miss or hit will most likely not even factor in the point spread cover. Remember, kickers are still hitting their extra points 93%+ of the time.
I would suggest that a two-point defensive safety may swing more games than missed extra-points. They are impossible to factor into your betting strategy since they are rare in the NFL. If you’re that far in the weeds and trying to take a magnifying glass to look at stats, you’ve already lost. There are so many more important things that can affect a betting win…and a kicker missing an extra-point is low on the list.
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About the Author…
Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on Twitter at @Sweetbob