I went 8-5-1 against the spread last week.
I started out 0-2 against the spread, but went 8-2-1 after the London game ended on Sunday. I really needed that.
It might be time to abandon a team or jump on the bandwagon on a team that has struggled against the spread. Market corrections are coming soon for some of these teams.
Can Jacksonville QB Blake Bortles make a huge turnaround and keep his starting job? He will need a huge performance in London.
We pick ever NFL game against the spread and throw out a few upsets in Week 8 of the 2018 NFL season.
Miami Dolphins at Houston Texans (-7.5) – My pick is Miami Dolphins
If Houston QB Deshaun Watson was healthy, I’d probably go with them here, but he’s playing with a partially-collapse lung. He didn’t look healthy last week and that injury needs rest to heal. On the flipside, Miami is starting QB Brock Osweiler. I know I’ve crapped on him for years, but he hasn’t been horrible in relief this year. We will get a healthy dose of running backs in this game. Watson is in ‘game manager’ mode while his chest injury heals. This game will be closer than expected, so I’m taking the points.
Philadelphia Eagles at Jacksonville Jaguars (+3) – My pick is Philadelphia Eagles
This game will be played in London, England. Both teams come into this game with injury issues at running back. The Eagles are a little better off as the guys they rely on have been on the team all year. The Jaguars also have a huge question mark at quarterback. QB Blake Bortles was benched last week in favor of QB Cody Kessler. Bortles will get the start this week, but he could have a short leash. The Eagles are only 3-4 this season, but have played well on the road. I have little to no faith in the Jaguars right now. They were a potential Super Bowl contender and now sit at 3-4 after three bad losses in a row. They need to figure out their quarterback situation, and the answer isn’t currently on the roster. I’m taking the Eagles to cover in jolly olde England.
Washington Redskins at New York Giants (+1) – My pick is Washington Redskins
The Giants are another team that appears broken. They already sent a flare out showing their intention to possibly ‘pack it in’ by sending troubled CB Eli Apple to the Saints. They could move a few more players before the Oct. 30th trade deadline next week. They didn’t look horrible at Atlanta on Monday night, but fell down by too many points to finish their fourth quarter comeback attempt. The Redskins have won three of their last four games. They had a brutal stretch of games, but managed wins over Green Bay, Carolina and Dallas. Their lone loss during this group of games was a 43-19 loss in New Orleans. Washington isn’t going to score many points and rely on their defense to finish games. I believe their defense matches up well with the Giants offense…especially if CB Josh Norman gets in WR Odell Beckham Jr.’s head again. I’m taking Washington to cover.
Seattle Seahawks at Detroit Lions (-3) – My pick is Seattle Seahawks
The woes that Seattle suffered early this season appear to be over. They have won three of their last four games and are 3-1 ATS in those games. They are protecting QB Russell Wilson much better than before. He is also getting the ball out of his hand quicker. The running game has has improved the last few games as well. They are getting healthy at the position for the first time in two years. The Lions also have a renewed running game with rookie RB Kerryon Johnson. Unfortunately, QB Matthew Stafford hasn’t been as consistent as in previous campaigns. He is throwing it less, but it takes away from the big play capabilities his big throwing arm possesses. I believe Seattle will exploit Detroit’s less-than-stellar run defense in this game. It will be a tight game and Seattle could squeak out a road win here, so I’m taking the points.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Cincinnati Bengals (-4.5) – My pick is Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals are a tough home team. They are coming off a rough 45-10 loss at Kansas City. They didn’t play well in any facet of that game. Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes and RB Kareem Hunt just sliced them up. Tampa Bay registered their first win since QB Jameis Winston’s suspension ended. Their pass defense is still a huge issue for them to overcome. They did well last week in not letting Browns rookie QB Baker Mayfield have much success…but the Bucs still needed overtime to win. Bengals QB Andy Dalton has more weapons than Mayfield. The Bucs secondary will have trouble stopping wide receivers A.J. Green and Tyler Boyd, so I’m taking Cincy to cover.
New York Jets at Chicago Bears (-7) – My pick is Chicago Bears
The Bears are coming off a hard-fought loss against the Patriots. This was a difficult game for the Patriots and now many young teams like the Bears have tested the Patriots. Chicago just didn’t have an answer for newly-acquired Patriots WR Josh Gordon. Bears QB Mitchell Trubisky has grown a lot in this season. He really took a huge leap since they played the Bucs. He did make a couple bad passes against the Patriots, but Bill Belichick will give quarterbacks hard looks. The Jets wide receivers are in shambles. It made for a rough last game for rookie QB Sam Darnold. They lost to the Vikings by 20 points and he only completed 17 of 42 passing attempts. The Vikings crowded the line and didn’t let their running backs get any traction. Darnold is going to struggle when the Jets are a perceived one-dimensional team…they become a zero-dimensional team. I’m taking the Bears to cover.
Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs (-10) – My pick is Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs are coming off a 45-10 win at home versus the Bengals. The Chiefs are a monster at home. They are 3-0 and their average margin of victory is 20 points. The Broncos are coming off their own 45-10 blowout (at Arizona). I don’t believe that carries the same weight as the Chiefs victory over a good Bengals team. Denver’s defense is still better than average and only held the Chiefs to 27 points in their 27-24 loss in Week 4 in Denver. All of the Chiefs studs did damage in that game, but the Broncos were able to move the ball on the ground to keep it close. The Broncos can be stopped on the ground and they were against the Jets and Rams. The Chiefs offense will just produce too many points, so I’m taking them to cover.
Baltimore Ravens at Carolina Panthers (+2) – My pick is Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens don’t get as much love as they should. They are 4-3 on the year (4-3 ATS) and their defense is better than anticipated. They are coming off a close one-point loss at home against the Saints. Before that game, they only allowed one touchdown in their two previous games combined. QB Joe Flacco has more weapons this season and is competing 61.7% of passes and has a 11/4 TD-INT ratio. He isn’t a good fantasy quarterback since he only has 11 passing touchdowns through seven games, but he’s efficient. The Panthers are back to their old ways with very few traditional rushing yards. QB Cam Newton gets more out of his rushing attempts than RB Christian McCaffrey. The diminutive running back is a pass-catching threat at the NFL level, and that’s about it. Newton can’t do it all and will need a lot of help against the Ravens. Baltimore’s defense will win the game for the Ravens and cover at Carolina.
Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers (-8) – My pick is Cleveland Browns
The Browns (5-2 ATS) only have one loss by more than four points this season. They are just 2-4-1 on the season, but have played in three overtime games. The last time the Browns and Steelers met, they tied in the opening week of the season. The Steelers have a lot of drama surrounding the team as star RB Le’Veon Bell is still a holdout. The drama hasn’t been as loud this week due to their bye week. This isn’t a gimme game for the Steelers. The Browns were starting QB Tyrod Taylor the last time they faced. Pittsburgh may win the game, but it will be another close one, so I’m taking the points.
Indianapolis Colts at Oakland Raiders (+3) – My pick is Indianapolis Colts
The Raiders offense really only showed up in one game this season (vs Browns). They are now without two of their main offensive contributors. WR Amari Cooper was traded to Dallas and RB Marshawn Lynch injured his groin. When it comes to injuries, the Colts are now seeing the light at the end of the tunnel. They were without RB Marlon Mack, WR T.Y. Hilton and TE Jack Doyle for a stretch of games. Mack and Hilton are back and Doyle could return this week. Veteran kicker Adam Vinatieri could miss this game with a groin injury, but the Colts had some kickers visit the team this week. The Colts impressed me last week and QB Andrew Luck didn’t need to do ‘too much’ and make dumb mistakes. It was the first game all season that every squad on the Colts contributed. The Raiders are already tanking and the Colts are playing better, so I’m taking the Colts to cover.
Green Bay Packers at Los Angeles Rams (-9.5) – My pick is Los Angeles Rams
This is the biggest underdog betting line of QB Aaron Rodgers career. The Packers faced more points the last two years in games, but it was when Rodgers was out injured. The Packers defense have struggled on the road. They could stop RB Adrian Peterson in their 31-17 road loss to the Redskins. Well, Rams RB Todd Gurley is on another level from the aging Peterson. On top of that, the Rams have ballhawks on defense that could turn Rodgers gray. It doesn’t help that TE Jimmy Graham, WR Randall Cobb and WR Geronimo Allison were all limited in practice this week. It’s a pretty daunting point spread to cover, but this Rams team is that talented.
San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals (-1) – My pick is San Francisco 49ers
I’ve went back and forth with my pick. The Cardinals beat the Niners 28-18 in San Francisco earlier this month. It was neck-and-neck until Arizona recovered a fumble and ran it in for a touchdown. Niners QB C.J. Beathard threw two interceptions and lost two fumbles in that game. The Cardinals had excellent field position for most of the game, but often couldn’t capitalize. Beathard did do some positive things in that game as he threw for 349 yards and had three total touchdowns. If Beathard is smarter with the ball in this game, they should get a win in Arizona.
New Orleans Saints at Minnesota Vikings (pk) – My pick is New Orleans Saints
This might be the best game of the week. The Saints have won five games in a row and are 4-1 ATS during the winning streak. They are a much better team with RB Mark Ingram back from suspension. RB Alvin Kamara is a good, but he’s so much better with Ingram. The Vikings struggled early this season, but have now rattled off three-straight wins. The victories weren’t against the elite teams, but three straight wins is hard to come by in the NFL. If the Saints can double team WR Adam Thielen, I think they have a shot in this game. The Saints are one of the best teams in the NFL and this would be a huge win for them. I’m taking New Orleans in this contest.
New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills (+13.5) – My pick is New England Patriots
This is a huge NFL point spread, but I thought about what it would take for me to actually take Buffalo. The Bills are very bad and they were just piss poor against the Colts. I honestly think it would take like +18 before I’d pick them. The Patriots should coast towards a cover on Monday Night Football.
*These picks are for entertainment purposes
Sweetbob’s NFL picks against the spread record in previous seasons:
2013: 133-95-10
2014: 131-114-9
2015: 150-108-9
2016: 143-120-13
2017: 144-115-16
2018: 50-49-8
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About the Author…
Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on Twitter at @Sweetbob