I finished under .500 (again) last week, but I think nearly everyone bombed last week. There were so many upsets that nearly half of the Top 25 lost and we have about half as many unbeaten teams left.
Try not to completely abandon your betting strategy if you had a bad week. It seems like every October there is one week out of the month that is just wacky. I hope you were able to land on an upset moneyline or two last week, because it was hard to volume bet games.
We at ‘America’s White Boy’ pick 25 college football games against the spread in Week 8 of the 2018-19 NCAA Football season (October, 20th, 2018). We also pick some smaller conference games.
Oklahoma at TCU (+8) – My pick is Oklahoma Sooners
Oklahoma was off last week, so they had a lot time to think about their loss to Texas. It wasn’t QB Kyler Murray’s fault, it was their defense. TCU is coming off a 17-14 loss to Texas Tech and they have their offense to blame. The Horned Frogs just can’t put enough points on the board. Oklahoma should be able to out-score what their defense gives up. I don’t trust TCU’s offense in this game, so I’m taking the Sooners to cover.
Maryland at Iowa (-9.5) – My pick is Iowa Hawkeyes
Iowa’s offense has been on a tear since their loss to Wisconsin back in late-September. Iowa QB Nathan Stanley had his best game of his college career against Indiana last week. He threw for six touchdowns and for over 300 yards. He has thrown for over 600 yards with ten passing touchdowns in his last two games. Iowa hasn’t been known for their offense in a number of years. The Hawkeyes also excel at stopping the run. It’s bad news for Maryland as that is their best way of moving the ball. I don’t think this game is close and I’m taking Iowa to cover at home.
USC at Utah (-7) – My pick is Utah Utes
USC is on a nice three-game winning streak. They knocked off the previously unbeaten Colorado Buffaloes last week. Freshman QB J.T. Daniels is still only completing about 50% of his passes, but he is moving the ball better. Utah is coming off two impressive wins. They beat Arizona by 32 points and won at Stanford by 19. They are using a handful of running backs and running the ball right down their opponents throats. USC has struggled against good running games. They were embarrassed by both Texas and Stanford early this year. I don’t like the Trojans in this game at all, so I’m taking Utah to cover.
Ohio State at Purdue (+12.5) – My pick is Purdue Boilermakers
Purdue QB David Blough and RB D.J. Knox have led Purdue on their current three-game winning streak. The seniors have filled in for injuries and the Boilermakers haven’t missed a beat. They are only 3-3 (4-2 ATS) on the season, but haven’t lost by more than four points all season. Ohio State is still perfect on the season (2-4 ATS), but haven’t covered in their last three games. Also, they are 0-2 against the spread on the road. The Buckeyes will probably win this game, but this point spread is inflated, so I’m taking the points.
Oregon at Washington State (-3) – My pick is Oregon Ducks
Oregon upset the previously-unbeaten Washington Huskies in overtime last week. The Ducks don’t get much love for their defense, but they dug in their heels against Washington QB Jake Browning. I didn’t expect much from Washington State going into this season. They have only lost one game so far, but have played a pretty cupcake schedule. They do have a win at home over Utah, but that was following a USC loss. The Cougars have a very good passing offense, but as a whole, I don’t think they are on the same league as Oregon, so I’m taking the points (and a possible Oregon moneyline play).
Vanderbilt at Kentucky (-11.5) – My pick is Vanderbilt Commodores
Kentucky is coming off their first loss of the season. They had a week off to let that loss ruminate. They win on defense and they just couldn’t stop Texas A&M in overtime. Vanderbilt is 3-4 (3-4 ATS) on the season and are on a two-game losing streak. Florida and Georgia both handled the Commodores and they slightly covered those games. This line could be close, but I’m not a huge fan of QB Terry Wilson. I just don’t think he can lead an offense to cover a double-digit points spread over Vandy.
Mississippi State at LSU (-6.5) – My pick is LSU Tigers
LSU just had their biggest win in recent memory. They beat Georgia 36-16 and dominated the Bulldogs all game. The Tigers arrived on the national scene and are a legit beast at home this year. Mississippi State bounced back from back-to-back losses to Florida and Kentucky. They beat Auburn 23-9 and finally got their running game back on track. It was just last year when MSU beat LSU 37-7 in Starkville. LSU will avenge that loss and cover at home.
Colorado at Washington (-17) – My pick is Colorado Buffaloes
Colorado suffered their first loss of the season to USC. They haven’t played a very difficult schedule, but it was still a surprise. Washington is coming of their first loss as well (see above). Are the Huskies really that much better than the Buffaloes? Washington’s schedule hasn’t been challenging either. Washington will most likely win this game, but I think this line is inflated, so I’m taking the points.
Alabama at Tennessee (+28.5) – My pick is Alabama Crimson Tide
Nearly half of the top 25 lost last week, but not Alabama. The Crimson Tide smoked Missouri and was as crisp as ever. I know head coach Nick Saban got a lot of shit for not naming a starting quarterback, but he is working this two-quarterback system better than any head coach I’ve witnessed. Tennessee is a shell of the once proud program. They are coming off a win over Auburn, but they have been smoked in every other game against a top opponent. The half-point does scare me a bit, but I’m taking the Tide.
Eastern Michigan at Ball State (+3) – My pick is Eastern Michigan Eagles
Eastern Michigan just loves to play in close games. They are only 3-4 (5-2 ATS) on the season, but ever since their 51-17 win over Monmouth to open the season, the margin of victory in any of their games have been seven points. Their last four games have been within a field goal or less. Their offense isn’t anything to write hope about, but their defense is keeping them in games. Ball State is right there among the middle-of-the-pack in the MAC. They had a difficult non-conference schedule, but only have wins over Central Connecticut, Kent State and Central Michigan. Eastern Michigan is coming off a pretty big win at home versus Toledo. I have to take Eastern Michigan in this game.
QUICK HITS
Buffalo at Toledo (+1) – My pick is Buffalo
Miami (OH) at Army (-7.5) – My pick is Army
Michigan at Michigan State (+7) – My pick is Michigan
Virginia at Duke (-7) – My pick is Duke
Bowling Green at Ohio (-16.5) – My pick is Bowling Green
Florida Atlantic at Marshall (+3) – My pick is Marshall
Western Michigan at Central Michigan (+4) – My pick is Western Michigan
Penn State at Indiana (+15) – My pick is Penn State
Rice at Florida International (-23.5) – My pick is FIU
UCF at East Carolina (+21.5) – My pick is UCF
BONUS PICKS!
Utah State at Wyoming (+15) – My pick is Utah State
Georgia Southern at New Mexico State (+11) – My pick is Georgia Southern
Memphis at Missouri (-9.5) – My pick is Memphis
NC State at Clemson (-17.5) – My pick is NC State
Kansas at Texas Tech (-18) – My pick is Texas Tech
Sweetbob’s college football picks against the spread record in previous seasons:
2013: 134-79-8
2014: 148-118-4
2015: 149-118-3
2016: 196-145-6
2017: 183-159-13
2018: 84-86-2