There were some close-to-the-betting-line games last week. There were three ties in my weekly bets. I still finished slightly under .500, which was aggravating. I missed two games by a point or less. I’m limping a little, but I’m feeling strong this week.

Vegas is predicting another week of close games. There is only one double-digit point spread and nearly half of the games are within a field goal. I may not have any nails left on my hands by Monday night.

The rookie quarterbacks were 0-4 outright last week. Will they bounce back this week?

We pick ever NFL game against the spread and throw out a few upsets in Week 5 of the 2018 NFL season.

Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots (-10) – My pick is New England Patriots

The Colts come into this game with a lot of damage. They will be without TE Jack Doyle and WR T.Y. Hilton, and a few others are currently questionable, like LT Anthony Castonzo and C Ryan Kelly. The Patriots have less issues, but TE Rob Gronkowski’s ankle may limit him this week. He said the injury is no big deal, but he could just be putting on a tough face. It’s hard to go against QB Andrew Luck since he tends to get the Colts back into games late, but the Patriots are a beast at home. The Pats should be able to cover this game against a banged-up Colts team.

New York Giants at Carolina Panthers (-7) – My pick is Carolina Panthers

The Giants are coming off a 33-18 loss at home to the Saints. The Panthers do a lot of things like the Saints, especially their short passing game. The Saints didn’t do a lot of it against the Giants, but RB Alvin Kamara did have nine targets. The Giants are going to get a lot of RB Christian McCaffrey in this game. They already struggle against a traditional running game, so they will have trouble stopping him too. The Giants have some stars on offense, but it will be their defense that fails them.

Atlanta Falcons at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3) – My pick is Atlanta Falcons

The Falcons come into this game 1-3, but don’t let their record fool you. They could be 4-0 or 0-4 pretty easily. They are coming off a one-point loss to Cincinnati and an overtime loss the week before that. Atlanta QB Matt Ryan is finding his stride and now has a rapport with rookie WR Calvin Ridley. He is finding the young receiver when it counts. The Steelers are 1-2-1 and rumors are swirling that the leadership has lost the locker room. They are coming off a 26-14 loss to the Ravens. They were out-gained in just about every facet of the game. They haven’t really looked like themselves all year. I think this will be another close contest, so I’m taking the points. 

Miami Dolphins at Cincinnati Bengals (-6.5) – My pick is Miami Dolphins

Both teams come into this game with a 3-1 record (and 3-1 ATS). The Dolphins are coming off a drubbing by the hands of the Patriots. They always struggle in New England, so it wasn’t a huge surprise. The Bengals have been hanging on in close games and their only loss was at Carolina in Week 3. As long as Cincinnati QB Andy Dalton keeps the ball in his team’s hands, the Bengals keep winning. There was a huge injury last week and Dalton lost one of his favorite weapons for the season. TE Tyler Eifert injured his ankle in a horrible scene. The Bengals are a different team without Eifert. This injury is bigger than people think. The Dolphins should keep this one close and I’m taking the points.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Kansas City Chiefs (-3) – My pick is Jacksonville Jaguars

This should be a fun game. The Chiefs haven’t looked human at all this season. QB Patrick Mahomes have them off to a 4-0 start (4-0 ATS). Their defense could be better, but they have been scoring more points than the other team…so their defense has been as good as they needed to be, right? The Jaguars are 3-1 (3-1 ATS) with their lone loss coming from a 9-6 loss to the Titans. Some could say that it was a letdown game coming a week after a huge 31-20 win versus the Patriots. The Jaguars will be without star RB Leonard Fournette (hamstring) after re-injuring it last week. This game will come down to defense. Both teams should put up crooked numbers, but can the Jaguars secondary make Mahomes look mortal? I believe Mahomes will turnover the ball a couple times and this contest will be close, so I’m taking the points.

Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns (+3) – My pick is Cleveland Browns

The Ravens have won the last five meetings against the Browns and covered every single one. They have dominated the Browns since their re-introduction to the league. The Browns may have their first true franchise quarterback since said re-introduction. QB Baker Mayfield nearly won his first two games, but the Raiders finished them off in overtime. Mayfield looked pretty darn good in the game thanks to the running game. Running backs Nick Chubb and Carlos Hyde took a lot of pressure off the young quarterback. I think Mayfield is in for another battle this Sunday. The Ravens have beaten some good teams this year. Their lone loss game at Cincinnati Week 2. I’m a believer in Cleveland think this game will be close, so I’m taking the points.

Tennessee Titans at Buffalo Bills (+3.5) – My pick is Tennessee Titans

The Titans have won three games in-a-row thanks to their youth. They have selected near the top of the last few drafts and the talent is finally maturing into an NFL-level team. Some people pegged QB Marcus Mariota as a bust this preseason. He hasn’t put up video game numbers like he did at Oregon, but he is finally getting some talent around him…specifically WR Corey Davis. He needed a huge target and the second-year talent was injured for most of his rookie season. The Bills are working through their own growing pains with QB Josh Allen. They are coming off a shutout loss at Green Bay. They will have trouble putting up points again this week, so I’m taking the Titans to cover in Orchard Park, New York. 

Denver Broncos at New York Jets (-1) – My pick is Denver Broncos

The Broncos have lost back-to-back games and the Jets have lost three in-a-row. Denver’s pass defense is their weakness and they were out-gained through the air by nearly 100 yards per game in their last two losses. I don’t see rookie Jets QB Sam Darnold lighting up the Broncos secondary as much as Joe Flacco and Patrick Mahomes. The Jets have their own defensive issues and haven’t looked right since letting Browns QB Baker Mayfield lead a comeback late in Week 3. As long as Denver QB Case Keenum can keep from throwing interceptions, I think they can squeak out a road win.

Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions (+1) – My pick is Detroit Lions

Do we know if the Packers are good? Throw out the first game since one could argue that comeback was an ‘Act of God’, since it was so improbable. They tied the Vikings in Week 2, and Minnesota followed that tie with two beatings from the Bills (!) and Rams. Then the Packers lost to Washington, who are probably in the lower-third of the league. The Packers then beat the Bills 22-0, a score many teams in the NFL could duplicate against Buffalo. You could argue the same about the Lions, but they at least have a 26-10 win over a legit playoff team (New England). Detroit QB Matthew Stafford hasn’t had a bad game against the Packers in recent memory. They beat the Packers both times last year, but both games were without QB Aaron Rodgers. When both quarterbacks are healthy, these two teams usually play in tight games. I have to give a slight nod to the Lions at home.

Oakland Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers (-4.5) – My pick is Los Angeles Chargers

The Raiders won a battle against the Browns in overtime last week. QB Derek Carr threw for 437 yards and he connected with WR Amari Cooper and TE Jared Cook a combined 16 times for 238 yards and three touchdowns. The Chargers are coming off a 29-27 win at home against the 49ers. They were double-digit favorites in that game, but Niners QB C.J. Beathard played better than expected. The bookmakers clearly underestimated Beathard’s skill-set. The bookmakers won’t have that problem this week since these teams are known commodities. I like the way the Chargers are using both running backs Melvin Gordon and Austin Ekeler. QB Philip Rivers doesn’t have to force throws down the field if they can move down the field from runs and short passes to the backs. I’m taking the Chargers to cover at home.

Minnesota Vikings at Philadelphia Eagles (-3) – My pick is Minnesota Vikings

The Vikings are coming off a 38-31 loss to the Rams last Thursday. As crazy as it sounds, I could see the Vikings getting some confidence back from that close loss to such a solid Rams team. The morale was at an all-time low before the game having lost 27-6 to the Bills the previous week. Vikings QB Kirk Cousins went back to his bread and butter by just throwing darts to WR Adam Thielen and WR Stefon Diggs. The Eagles are coming off a close loss themselves. The Titans needed just about the entire overtime period to beat the Eagles 26-23. Eagles QB Carson Wentz isn’t quite up to the speed of the game yet, but he’s looking better than the previous week. The Vikings could find themselves in another shootout. I am taking the points in a close game.

Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks (+7) – My pick is Los Angeles Rams

I can’t remember the last time the Seahawks were underdogs by this large of a margin at home. They are rarely ever underdogs at home, so it may have been early in Pete Carroll’s tenure. That being said, they should be underdogs by this margin due to the talent on the Rams. They are stacked on both sides of the ball and I fear for Seattle QB Russell Wilson. His offensive line is a wreck and defensive tackles Aaron Donald and Ndamukong Suh are coming to town. The Seahawks are going to struggle on offense, so I’m taking the Rams to cover on the road.

Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers (-4.5) – My pick is Arizona Cardinals

This pick took the longest to research. There are a lot of unknowns since Arizona rookie QB Josh Rosen has only one start under his belt and San Francisco backup QB C.J. Beathard has only one start under his belt this year as well. I was impressed with Beathard more than Rosen, but that is because Beathard was able to start a couple games last year. The Cardinals started out the season with two bad losses to the Redskins and Rams. They only scored six combined points in those two games. They then went on to lose to the Bears by two…and last week, lost to the Seahawks by a field goal. Arizona is looking for their first win and this is their best shot. This is a huge game for Rosen and he could cement his role as the permanent starter with a big win (even though he should hold a clipboard for a season). I have a feeling Cardinals RB David Johnson will finally have a huge game. I think this will be a close one, so I’m taking the points.

Dallas Cowboys at Houston Texans (-3) – My pick is Houston Texans

The Texans are another team that is better than their record (1-3). They have lost three close games at New England, at Tennessee and at home to the Giants. They finally got their first win, but it took overtime to get the win at Indy. The Cowboys are probably where they should be at 2-2 (1-3 ATS). They won both games they should have won and lost at Seattle and at Carolina. The Cowboys aren’t special and will probably only win seven or eight games this season. They lack depth at wide receiver and their offensive line injuries make them a very average offensive team. The Texans have playmakers on both sides of the ball and QB Deshaun Watson is looking like his pre-injury self more and more. This is only their second home game and the crowd will be pumped to see the in-state Cowboys come to Houston. I think Houston will cover.

Washington Redskins at New Orleans Saints (-6) – My pick is New Orleans Saints

The Saints have been in some shootouts this season. Their first three games were all within a score and they went 2-1 in those games. They finally had an easier contest last week with a 33-18 win at the Giants. They will be even stronger this week since RB Mark Ingram’s suspension ended. Their offense will look more like last year with both RB Alvin Kamara and Ingram working the short-yardage game. The Redskins have been up and down this season. They came out of the gate by smoking the Cardinals 24-6, only to lose at home to the Colts 21-9…and then they beat the Packers 31-17 two weeks ago. They are coming off a bye last week. This could be a close game at halftime, but I just like the Kamara/Ingram combo a lot and the Saints will come into this game knowing they have a full squad again. 

*These picks are for entertainment purposes

Sweetbob’s NFL picks against the spread record in previous seasons:
2013: 133-95-10
2014: 131-114-9
2015: 150-108-9
2016: 143-120-13
2017: 144-115-16
2018: 28-30-5

Follow us on Twitter @Sweetbob & ‘LIKE’ us on Facebook!

About the Author…

Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on Twitter at @Sweetbob