Were you one of those guys who bet on NFL preseason games?

I get it. You were excited to wager on football again and just jumped the gun a little. It’s now time to bet on some games that count!

We had a pretty good year betting on NFL games last year. We went 144-115-16 and hit on a few underdog moneylines to come out in the black for the season.

There are a ton of new quarterbacks making their first starts for their new teams this weekend. Veteran quarterbacks like Kirk Cousins, Alex Smith and Sam Bradford hope to lead their new teams to successful seasons. Also, quarterbacks Andrew Luck, Deshaun Watson and Ryan Tannehill return from injuries. Which quarterback will make the biggest impact in Week 1?

We pick ever NFL game against the spread and throw out a few upsets in Week 1 of the 2018 NFL season.

Atlanta Falcons at Philadelphia Eagles (-1) – My pick is Philadelphia Eagles

The Eagles are coming off a Super Bowl win, but are still without QB Carson Wentz. QB Nick Foles will start this game while Wentz recovers from major knee surgery. Foles led the team to a Super Bowl victory, so I don’t see much of an issue there. Neither the Eagles or Falcons looked very good this preseason, but that can be deceiving. Teams often rest their stars and use that playing time to decide the last five or six players to make the team. The Falcons didn’t put up a ton of points last season, but still won ten games in 2017. These two teams will most likely be playoff contenders again, but I have to give the nod to the Eagles at home.

San Francisco 49ers at Minnesota Vikings (-6.5) – My pick is Minnesota Vikings

The hype train was all about Niners QB Jimmy Garappolo this offseason. San Francisco appeared to go from laughingstock to above average after acquiring him midseason. He had numerous 300+ yard games, but too many drives ended in field goals. The Niners should be competitive this year, but I’m not on the Jimmy G bandwagon. The Vikings signed free agent QB Kirk Cousins this offseason and let QB Case Keenum leave via free agency. Cousins proved he was worth a big money deal after signing consecutive franchise tags with the Redskins. He has a better roster on both sides of the ball. The Vikings secondary will make it tough for Garoppolo. I am going with the Vikings cover in Week 1.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints (-9.5) – My pick is New Orleans Saints

I really hate picking a near-double-digit point spread cover in Week 1, but I’m not a huge fan of Bucs QB Ryan Fitzpatrick. He has had stretches of competence, but he is a little too ‘gunslinger’ at times. I’m sure the Bucs want RB Peyton Barber to get 25+ carries, but that’s in a perfect world. The Saints could get a double-digit early lead, which would force Fitzpatrick to pass. The Saints are also without a star due to suspension. RB Mark Ingram failed a PED test, so it will be the RB Alvin Kamara Show…and I expect him to have a monster game. I’m taking the Saints to cover at home.

Houston Texans at New England Patriots (-6.5) – My pick is Houston Texans

The last time these teams faced each other, the Patriots won 36-33 in a shootout. Texans QB Deshaun Watson threw for 301 yards and Pats QB Tom Brady threw for five touchdowns. Brady needed a huge game since their running game was nonexistent. The Texans didn’t have Watson much longer since he went down with a season-ending injury a few weeks later. He’s healthy now and I expect to see a much-improved offense. The Patriots are without WR Julian Edelman due to PED suspension, but they played without him all last season due to injury. They still have some question marks at running back and I’m unsure if they replaced RB Dion Lewis, who left via free agency. Rookie RB Sony Michel had a fumbling issue in college, and head coach Bill Belichick has put many rookie RBs in the doghouse for doing that. I think this will be a tight game and I’m taking the points.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns (+4) – My pick is Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers appear to be without star running back Le’Veon Bell. He hasn’t reported to the team after holding out all preseason. They are prepared to start RB James Conner, even if he shows up between now and game-time. The Steelers should probably be larger favorites, but the Browns got the ‘Hard Knocks’ bump in Week 1. Teams featured on the program tend to get ‘public team’ treatment early in the year. The Browns defense will be good, but I’m not sold on the offense. Can QB Tyrod Taylor get the ball to his WR studs (Jarvis Landry & Josh Gordon)? I’m not sure they can keep up with the Steelers, so I’m taking Pittsburgh to cover. 

Cincinnati Bengals at Indianapolis Colts (-2.5) – My pick is Cincinnati Bengals

I’m a Colts fan, but it often affects my Colts handicapping. It’s not like I’m a homer and always positive about my team, it’s quite the opposite. I’m often way too negative. I often focus on the flaws. I try to back-off and make sure I’m being impartial. That being said, I’m not optimistic about the Colts this season. They are thin at cornerback, they have no depth at wide receiver and I worry the rookie offensive linemen may need a little more experience before they can adequately protect returning QB Andrew Luck. Also, how will Luck deal with taking a big hit to his repaired shoulder? The Bengals have their own issues on offense too. QB Andy Dalton is perpetually on the hot seat, but he has kept his job…just like head coach Marvin Lewis (who everyone thought would be fired at year’s end). I like Bengals RB Joe Mixon and think he could have a big game against an unproven Colts defense. I’m taking the points in a close, low-scoring game.

Tennessee Titans at Miami Dolphins (+1.5) – My pick is Miami Dolphins

The last time QB Ryan Tannehill took the field in the regular season, he was the captain of a ten-win Dolphins team. He suffered a season-ending injury early in training camp and missed the entire 2017 season. He’s a much better quarterback than his reputation. He spent the year studying under head coach Adam Gase. Many expect the Titans to take a leap forward under new head coach Mike Vrabel. I think they could be a Wild-Card contender, but QB Marcus Mariota will need to stay healthy. This game could be a coin-flip, but I like the Dolphins a little more at home.

Buffalo Bills at Baltimore Ravens (-7.5) – My pick is Baltimore Ravens

I have talked a lot of shit about the Bills so far this offseason. They have made some questionable decisions and the fact that they announced QB Nathan Peterman as the starter is just baffling. He instantly struggled against NFL-level secondaries last season. I can’t believe he improved much this offseason. The Ravens are probably a .500 team, but their defense should eat up Peterman, so I’m taking them to cover.

Jacksonville Jaguars at New York Giants (+3) – My pick is Jacksonville Jaguars

All the years of the Jaguars picking in the top-five finally paid off last season. All their defensive talent matured and rookie RB Leonard Fournette helped alleviate the pressure on QB Blake Bortles. Most of that squad is back and they got a taste of the postseason. They remind me of Seattle when they first started to win under head coach Pete Carroll. The Giants hired head coach Pat Shurmur, who only has a 10-23 record as a head coach. He has had success as offensive coordinator on different teams, but has yet to find success as head coach. He has a healthy WR Odell Beckham Jr. and fresh rookie RB Saquon Barkley, so things are looking up for the G-Men. The Jags will break in Barkley and make him earn every yard. I think Jacksonville’s defense is just too much for the Giants, so I’m taking them to cover on the road.

Kansas City Chiefs at Los Angeles Chargers (-3) – My pick is Los Angeles Chargers

The Chiefs made some changes this offseason by trading QB Alex Smith to Washington and they sent star CB Marcus Peters to the Rams. I’m not a huge fan of those changes, but I am intrigued by QB Patrick Mahomes. He has a big arm, but he’s unproven. He may struggle if Chargers defensive wizard Joey Bosa pressures him a half-dozen times on Sunday. The Chiefs have an eight-game winning streak against the Chargers, and are 6-2 against the spread during the streak. I think it’s time the Chargers win and will cover at home.

Dallas Cowboys at Carolina Panthers (-3) – My pick is Carolina Panthers

The Cowboys are banged up on the offensive line. We all know how horrible they played last season when just one piece of their line goes down. Carolina has a lot of defensive players that will exploit those holes in their line. I’m also not sold on the Cowboys defense. They will need near-perfect play on that side of the ball if they wish to make the postseason. I don’t see this offense being prolific without WR Dez Bryant and TE Jason Witten, or if OL Travis Frederick has to miss an extended amount of time. I think the Panthers will run all over the Cowboys defense.

Seattle Seahawks at Denver Broncos (-3) – My pick is Denver Broncos

Seattle usually starts the season with the ‘public team’ treatment. They are getting that treatment again since Denver should probably be a 4.5-point favorite. I like the QB Case Keenum signing and drafting rookie RB Royce Freeman. He’s a North-South runner, but has good vision. Seattle didn’t do a lot to fix their offensive line issues from a year ago. The Broncos have pass rushers and will induce grass stains on QB Russell Wilson’s jersey. I am taking the Broncos to cover. 

Washington Redskins at Arizona Cardinals (-1.5) – My pick is Arizona Cardinals

I’m really intrigued by the Arizona Cardinals. They will either be a division contender or completely combust. New QB Sam Bradford takes over what feels like his tenth team since being drafted #1 by the Rams years ago. He gets RB David Johnson back, who suffered a nasty wrist injury in Week 1 last year…and missed the rest of the season. It wasn’t a lower-body injury, so I don’t expect a sharp decline in production. The Redskins also have a new quarterback. They traded for Alex Smith, but didn’t do much else to improve their offense. They lost rookie RB Derrius Guice for the season to a knee injury and only signed WR Paul Richardson to fix their WR depth issue. I’m not feeling the Redskins this year and I like the Cardinals to cover at home.

Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers (-7.5) – My pick is Chicago Bears

The Packers come into the season loaded on offense, but with questions on defense. They drafted two young cornerbacks and will rely on them to be game-changers. Bears QB Mitchell Trubisky may test them a few times, but I expect a lot of what we saw from him last season…solid at getting his running backs the ball. Will Khalil Mack be an impact player for the Bears less than a week after acquiring him? I’m hoping he will be impactful enough to keep that half-point from covering. The Packers may win the game, but I’m taking the points in a close game.

New York Jets at Detroit Lions (-6.5) – My pick is Detroit Lions

The Jets made a bold move by trading QB Teddy Bridgewater and giving the keys to the castle to rookie QB Sam Darnold. Jets head coach Todd Bowles had success in his first year with the team, but has went a combined 10-22 in his last two seasons. Will he get a pass with a rookie QB starting this season? I still think his job is on the line. There are other question marks on offense as well. WR Robby Anderson could be hit with a suspension due to off-the-field problems and I hate WR Terrelle Pryor. The Lions should be contenders this season, but I guess we will see if rookie RB Kerryon Johnson is the answer to their running back problem. Detroit QB Matthew Stafford hasn’t had a consistent running back since he was in college. The passing game will be there all day, but they need production on the ground. I think the Lions will cover at home on Monday Night Football. 

Los Angeles Rams at Oakland Raiders  (+4) – My pick is Los Angeles Rams

The Raiders will miss Khalil Mack in this game. The Raiders may need to score 35+ points just to keep up with the Rams. I don’t see the Rams defense allowing near that amount. The Rams are clearly in win-now mode after acquiring CB Marcus Peters, WR Brandin Cooks and DT Ndamukong Suh this offseason. The Raiders are starting a new regime under former head coach Jon Gruden. He had success during his first run and was one of the few Raiders head coaches to avoid getting fired by Al Davis (he was traded to the Bucs instead). The Raiders have pieces of a contending team, but their defense has no depth. The Rams will exploit that and ruin Gruden’s Monday Night Football homecoming. I’m taking the Rams to cover.

*These picks are for entertainment purposes

Sweetbob’s NFL picks against the spread record in previous seasons:
2013: 133-95-10
2014: 131-114-9
2015: 150-108-9
2016: 143-120-13
2017: 144-115-16
2018: 0-0-0

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About the Author…

Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on Twitter at @Sweetbob