We love posting season win over/under picks for the NBA, MLB and NFL. Sportsbooks are often very close to the actual win totals, which makes it hard for a bettor to win. They do have bad years, but the 2017-18 NBA season was very good for sportsbooks.
Out of the the 30 NBA team’s season win totals this preseason, the sportsbooks were +/- a single win for nine of them. That’s an insanely good year prognosticating the NBA this season. I guess the betting public also had a say in it as well.
People think sportsbooks try to guess the exact total of wins in a season or score of a game. That’s actually not the case most of the time. They try to get bets on both outcomes as evenly as possible. This is why lines move as a bet becomes lopsided. A lot of novice bettors may not understand that either.
Here are where the sportsbooks picked the NBA teams over/under season win totals and how many wins each NBA team had this season.
You can read my preseason NBA season wins posts for the Eastern and Western Conference.
Eastern Conference
Atlanta Hawks – 24 1/2 Wins – 24 Season Wins
The Sportsbooks were only a half-win away from the real total. I have a feeling they probably took more money on the ‘over’ as there were worse teams on paper than the Hawks.
Boston Celtics – 54 1/2 Wins – 55 Season Wins
If the Celtics lost one more game, Vegas would have won a TON of money. The ‘over’ bet for the Celtics was one of the most popular bets this preseason as they added Gordon Hayward and Kyrie Irving. No one expected them to be without both players (injuries) by the end of the regular season.
Brooklyn Nets – 27 1/2 Wins – 28 Season Wins
The Nets were horrible on paper this preseason. Many experts predicted another win total in the mid-20’s. Vegas probably did pretty well as they barely eclipsed the over/under season wins total.
Charlotte Hornets – 42 Wins – 36 Season Wins
I never thought the Hornets would lose 46 games this season. I picked the ‘over’ for them this preseason. Mitch Kupchak took over the team and cleaned house the day after the season ended. I expect some roster changes this offseason as well.
Chicago Bulls – 22 Wins – 27 Season Wins
Vegas can thank rookie Lauri Makkanen for the ‘over’ for the Bulls season win total. He was such a great addition while Bobby Portis and Nikola Mirotic were out early in the year. The Bulls have the bare bones of a team they could be good in a couple years.
Cleveland Cavaliers – 54 Wins – 50 Season Wins
The Cavs had a facelift during the season when they traded away a lot of the additions they made last offseason. I had a feeling adding Derrick Rose, Isaiah Thomas and Dwayne Wade wasn’t going to be a good fit with LeBron.
Detroit Pistons – 38 1/2 Wins – 39 Season Wins
Another half-win margin for the sportsbooks. To be honest, they probably weren’t going to touch the ‘over’ until they unloaded a lot of guys for Blake Griffin. They were pretty good after that point. I’m interested to see what moves they will make this offseason.
Indiana Pacers – 30 1/2 Wins – 48 Season Wins
This is the first huge miss. A lot of people weren’t sold on the Pacers after they traded away franchise stud Paul George. They received Domantas Sabnois and Victor Oladipo from the Thunder in that deal. Oladipo made a case to win the Most Improved Player of the Year Award and will receive a huge pay day this offseason.
Miami Heat – 44 1/2 Wins – 44 Season Wins
I’m not sure how the public viewed the Heat this preseason. I picked the ‘over’, but I could see why someone would have bet on the under. A lot of injury-prone guys were expected to play big minutes. Also, we didn’t know Dwayne Wade would find his way back to the Heat either.
Milwaukee Bucks – 47 Wins – 44 Season Wins
I thought the Bucks were on the verge of a 50+ win season. They canned Jason Kidd midseason and maybe they would have won more than 47 games if they handed the keys to coach Joe Prunty sooner.
New York Knicks – 28 1/2 Wins – 29 Season Wins
Considering the Knicks lost Kristaps Porzingis to injury after only 48 games, and they still won 29 games, it wasn’t ‘that’ bad of a season I guess. I thought they were going to hit the ‘under’ WITH the Unicorn.
Orlando Magic – 33 1/2 Wins – 25 Season Wins
I knew the Magic were doomed before the season started. I didn’t like how the roster was put together and Frank Vogel was the wrong coach for this team. They fired him after the season, so they won’t have that problem next year.
Philadelphia 76ers – 39 Wins – 52 Season Wins
I was off in my assessment of the Sixers this season. I thought it was going to be one more season before they turned in this sort of win total. Ben Simmons was better than expected and Joel Embiid was ‘mostly’ injury-free this season.
Toronto Raptors – 48 1/2 Wins – 59 Season Wins
The Raptors finished the regular season with home-court advantage in the Eastern Conference. They are a balanced team and often gets overlooked by more ‘flashy’ teams in the East like the Sixers and Celtics.
Washington Wizards – 49 Wins – 43 Season Wins
I’m always a tad too bullish on the Wizards every preseason. I just look at their roster and expect more. They didn’t hit the ‘over’ on their season win total this season, but at least they made the postseason.
Western Conference
Dallas Mavericks – 35 1/2 Wins – 24 Season Wins
This one was off by a large margin. I guess people thought Harrison Barnes and rookie Dennis Smith Jr. would make larger impacts. It didn’t help that the Mavs were trotting out lineups with Aaron Harrison and Salah Mejri late in the season. #tank
Denver Nuggets – 45 1/2 Wins – 46 Season Wins
I was a firm believer in the Denver Nuggets ‘over’ season win total. I’m a big fan of Nikola Jokic and thought he would will this team to 50 wins this season. They did eclipse the over/under of 45 1/2 wins, but they were a game why of the postseason.
Golden State Warriors – 67 1/2 Wins – 58 Season Wins
An over/under win total of 67 1/2 wins was just going to be extremely difficult to hit. The Warriors suffered injuries and they were without both Kevin Durant and Stephen Curry for periods late in the year. They need everything to be perfect to hit the ‘over’ this season.
Houston Rockets – 56 Wins – 65 Season Wins
The Rockets needed to get home-court advantage this season. They haven’t won a ring since Hakeem Olajuwon suited up for them. Regular season wins were more important to them than other top teams. They played all-out all season and earned their postseason advantage. They now need to cash in on that advantage and win the Western Conference.
Los Angeles Clippers – 44 1/2 Wins – 42 Season Wins
The Clippers knew they were out of the playoff race midseason and made some trades. They traded their former franchise star Blake Griffin to Detroit and received some future assets. I expect DeAndre Jordan to be traded this offseason as well.
Los Angeles Lakers – 33 1/2 Wins – 35 Season Wins
This preseason, all the focus was on Lonzo Ball, but Kyle Kuzma stole all the shine once the season started. The Lakers will make some big moves this offseason to acquire a couple max players.
Memphis Grizzlies – 37 1/2 Wins – 22 Season Wins
It’s been a long time since the Grizzlies had a season this bad. I think they were in Vancouver the last time they won this few games. They need a team overhaul and rebuild from the ground up.
Minnesota Timberwolves – 47 1/2 Wins – 47 Season Wins
I picked the ‘over’ this preseason as I thought the T-Wolves were a 50+ win team. They have a ton of young talent and love Karl Anthony-Towns. They should win at least 50 games next season.
New Orleans Pelicans – 39 1/2 Wins – 48 Season Wins
I had written off the Pelicans after DeMarcus Cousins suffered a season-ending injury. They actually played better and the addition of Nikola Mirotic made them a better team. Anthony Davis should get some MVP votes.
Oklahoma City Thunder – 53 1/2 Wins – 48 Season Wins
It took about 30 games before Carmelo Anthony and Paul George learned how to play with Russell Westbrook. Both guys were very ball-dominant on their former teams, so they had to learn their role.
Phoenix Suns – 29 Wins – 21 Season Wins
I’m not sure which direction the Suns are moving. Devin Booker and Josh Jackson are really the only two pieces they should build around. Also, did Marquese Chriss forget how to play basketball last offseason? He was horrible this year.
Portland Trail Blazers – 42 1/2 Wins – 49 Season Wins
I love the core of stars on the Blazers. They are balanced and can hang with any team, no matter the style. They can open up the court and run with the best teams and also play half-court sets with Jusuf Nurkic.
Sacramento Kings – 28 Wins – 27 Season Wins
Vegas probably lost their shirts with Kings ‘under’ bets this season. The franchise is bad and should be sold to a team owner with actual basketball knowledge. They only smart thing Vivek has done since he bought the team was drafting De’Aaron Fox.
San Antonio Spurs – 53 1/2 Wins – 47 Season Wins
No one really knew that Kawhi Leonard would basically miss the entire season. He only played nine games and his quad injury could probably keep him out the entire postseason as well. I suspect Vegas did well with this bet. The Spurs are a very public team and probably got a lot of ‘over’ bets.
Utah Jazz – 41 Wins – 48 Season Wins
Ben Simmons may win Rookie of the Year, but my vote would be for Donovan Mitchell. The kid was great and dynamic for the Jazz. He made game-winning shots and would often trend on Twitter. ‘Basketball Twitter’ loved them some Donovan Mitchell this season.
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About the Author…
Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on Twitter at @Sweetbob.