I hit the most popular college football games, but missed on a lot of under-the-radar games. I’m still well above .500 on the season, but really struggled picking the early games last Saturday.
The big game against Ohio State and Penn State really paid off last week. It was a fun watch and came down to the final minute of the game. This week’s big game is Oklahoma at Oklahoma State. Can the Cowboys cover the game at home?
Iowa State, Georgia Tech and Notre Dame have been awesome against the spread this season. Can all three cover this weekend?
We at ‘America’s White Boy’ pick 25 college football games against the spread in Week 10 of the NCAA Football season (November 4th, 2017). We also pick some smaller conference games.
Wisconsin at Indiana (+12) – My pick is Wisconsin Badgers
Wisconsin isn’t flashy, but they are undefeated. I realize they have had one of the easiest schedules of any top-25 team, but they excel at one of the things the Hoosiers just can’t stop, the run. Indiana is a solid team and have been in nearly every game this season, but when a team runs the ball late in the game, they just can’t stop them. I’m not sure why more teams did’t attack them in that fashion, but their loss to Michigan opened my eyes to their swiss cheese run defense. I have to take the Badgers to cover in Bloomington.
Auburn at Texas A&M (+15) – My pick is Texas A&M Aggies
Texas A&M come into this game with a 5-3 record outright and 5-2-1 against the spread. The only game they weren’t ‘in the game’ was last week against Mississippi State. A&M QB Kellen Mond had a rough game and didn’t look comfortable. Auburn followed their 27-23 loss to LSU with a 52-20 win at Arkansas two weeks ago. Auburn expects to have RB Kamryn Pettway healthy enough to play even though he is dealing with a lingering heel injury. If this line was single-digits, I’d probably take Auburn, but I have to take the points if A&M is given more than two touchdowns.
Syracuse at Florida State (-4.5) – My pick is Syracuse Orange
Florida State has been a disaster since losing QB Deondre Francois in their first game of the year. Freshman QB James Blackman is struggling to just get completions right now. He only completed 42% his passes in the 35-3 loss at Boston College. Syracuse had a couple big wins this season, but fell flat on their face two week ago in their 27-19 loss at Miami. They still won against the spread (+17.5), but QB Eric Dungey threw four interceptions, I’m pretty sure they would have upset the Hurricanes. He still ran for 100 yards, but the guy only completed 31% of his passes. This game was an outlier and has been very good before they faced Miami. I am taking the points in anticipation of Dungey turning things around this week.
Georgia Tech at Virginia (+9.5) – My pick is Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
Georgia Tech comes into this game with a 6-0-1 record against the spread. They were perfect on the season before their push against the spread in their 24-10 loss at Clemson. The Tigers are historically very good against the triple-option, so it wasn’t a huge surprise. I was on Virginia QB Kurt Benkert’s bandwagon early this season. He has struggled in back-to-back losses. It doesn’t help him that his defense can’t stop the run. You know where this is going…the Yellow Jackets should be able to run all over the Cavaliers if they can’t stop a simple running attack from a team like Boston College. I’m taking Tech to cover on the road.
Stanford at Washington State (-2.5) – My pick is Washington State Cougars
The Cougars have had a rough couple weeks since starting the season with six-straight wins. QB Luke Falk, who was once a probable first-round pick in NFL Draft, was benched last week after a poor start against Arizona. He will start at home against Stanford. I think the benching was more about motivating him. Stanford has won five-straight games, but has struggled to win against the spread on the road. They are 1-4-1 against the spread on the road. I really like Falk and think he will take care of business and cover at home over the Cardinal.
Ohio State at Iowa (+17.5) – My pick is Iowa Hawkeyes
The Buckeyes are coming off a huge win at home over then-undefeated Penn State Nittany Lions. They came back from a 11-point deficit with only 5:42 left in the game. Ohio State QB J.T. Barrett had a monster game with four passing touchdowns, 328 passing yards and another 95 yards on the ground. The Buckeye defense was able to hold star running back Saquon Barkley to only 44 rushing yards on 21 carries. That being said, this is the definition of a ‘letdown game.’ Iowa is a good team with a better-than-advertised defense. I would venture to say that the Hawkeyes have the best defense the Buckeyes have faced so far this season. I have to take the points here.
Wake Forest at Notre Dame (-13.5) – My pick is Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Notre Dame has had an unbelievable season outright and especially against the spread. Their only loss was at home against Georgia, who is still undefeated on the year. Notre Dame is a very public team, so Vegas is getting hosed by them this season. I’m surprised their point spreads haven’t been much higher. Irish RB Josh Adams has forced his name in the Heisman trophy conversation. He’s averaging 8.9 yards an attempt! Wake Forest has had a solid season so far. They were expected to finish near the bottom of the ACC and here they sit with a 5-3 outright record. They have also been very good against the spread with a 5-2-1 record. I just can’t pick against the Irish right now. I’m taking them to cover at home.
Oklahoma at Oklahoma State (-2.5) – My pick is Oklahoma Sooners
Oklahoma has owned Oklahoma State the past decade. They are 8-2 outright in their last ten meetings. The Sooners have had a lot of elite teams during that stretch. This year’s squads are much more even than in most years. The Sooners have stud quarterback Baker Mayfield and a lot of NFL talent on both sides of the ball. Oklahoma State has QB Mason Rudolph, who should play on Sundays in the NFL soon and one of the best receivers in the SEC, WR James Washington. Oddly enough, I think this game will come down to which team can run the ball better. Both teams have stacked backfields, but Oklahoma’s backfield is better and their run defense has improved greatly since the beginning of the season. This game should be close, but I like the Sooners just a little more than the Cowboys. I’m taking the points and I may put a few jellybeans on the moneyline.
LSU at Alabama (-21) – My pick is LSU Tigers
I realize that LSU has had their struggles this season and Alabama is arguably the best team in the country, but this line is insulting to LSU. The Tigers have actually started running the ball better the last few weeks. They also had a nice win at home against Auburn in mid-October. I know Alabama is on an entirely different level when they play their best, but weird things happen in college football in November, especially in the SEC. Top teams always have a few scares at this time of the year. Alabama should win the game, but this line is too high, so I’m taking the points.
Ball State at Eastern Michigan (-23.5) – My pick is Ball State Cardinals
This is where we pick a game with smaller conference teams. I’m riding my Eastern Michigan game picks again. The Eagles are 6-2 ATS on the season and have been playing teams pretty darn close all season. They 2-6 outright and have lost six-straight games, but all of those losses were within a touchdown. Hell, their last two games went into overtime and were won by field goals. Ball State is also 2-6 outright, but have been atrocious the last four weeks. They have been outscored in those four games by the score of 200 to 32. It’s plausible that Eastern could win and cover, but this spread is a little too high for my taste. The most points they have scored in a game has been 30, and needed overtime to hit that mark. I’m taking the points on Thursday.
QUICK HITS
Oregon at Washington (-21) – My pick is Washington
Virginia Tech at Miami (FL) (+2.5) – My pick is Virginia Tech
Colorado State at Wyoming (+3) – My pick is Wyoming
Minnesota at Michigan (-15.5) – My pick is Minnesota
Utah State at New Mexico (-4.5) – My pick is Utah State
Iowa State at West Virginia (-2.5) – My pick is Iowa State
Maryland at Rutgers (+2) – My pick is Maryland
Memphis at Tulsa (+11.5) – My pick is Tulsa
Marshall at FAU (-7.5) – My pick is Marshall
Arizona at USC (-7) – My pick is Arizona
BONUS PICKS!
BYU at Fresno State (-14) – My pick is Fresno State
UL Lafayette at South Alabama (-5.5) – My pick is South Alabama
Army at Air Force (-6.5) – My pick is Air Force
Georgia State at Georgia Southern (+4) – My pick is Georgia State
Appalachian State at UL Monroe (+9.5) – My pick is UL Monroe
Sweetbob’s college football picks against the spread record in previous seasons:
2013: 134-79-8
2014: 148-118-4
2015: 149-118-3
2016: 196-145-6
2017: 117-100-8
*These picks are for entertainment purposes
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About the Author…
Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on Twitter at @Sweetbob.