It’s time to bob and weave in the NFL. Teams that have been consistently covering spreads will finally become vulnerable. The value in their spreads will either be non-existent or razor-thin. Yes, even the Jacksonville Jaguars are looking good in Week 4.
Last week, I went 9-7 in my betting picks against the spread. I am now 26-22 on the season.
I had a decent season betting against the spread in the NFL last season (133-95-10). Any year you hit nearly 60% of the NFL games against the spread is a damn good year. I hope to keep it going in 2014.
I’m sorry about posting this weeks’ picks so late, but they didn’t automatically post like I had this article setup to do.
We pick every NFL game against the spread and throw out a few upsets in Week 4 of the 2014 NFL season.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Pittsburgh Steelers (-7.5) – My pick is Pittsburgh Steelers
This line might end up being a half-point too high, but how could anyone be confident enough to put money on the Bucs? Their offensive coordinator announced he will take an indefinite medical leave and their offensive line is a joke. Mike Glennon will be starting for Tampa, which could be a slight upgrade, but there are just too many replacement-level NFL players on the team.
Detroit Lions at New York Jets (+2) – My pick is Detroit Lions
The Jets are 0-2-1 against the spread this year, but they weren’t empty losses. I use the term ’empty loss’ meaning if a team just got blown out. If a loss against the spread was close, you can learn something from it…unlike an empty loss. Detroit impressed me with their win against Green Bay. That is a game they would have lost with Jim Schwartz as their head coach. Detroit will win this game by a field goal.
Miami Dolphins at Oakland Raiders (+4) – in London, England – My pick is Oakland Raiders
Miami misses Knowshon Moreno. They have been horrible without him. Dolphins head coach Joe Philbin caused a ruckus when he wouldn’t completely commit to Ryan Tannehill as the starter. I guess this didn’t sit well with him and they had a private meeting. Philbin is a lame duck coach since they hired a new general manager in the offseason. If they don’t have a winning season he’s gone, so Philbin might be thinking about shaking things up. I don’t want any part of that. The Raiders aren’t great, but they are already in London practicing. Give me the Raiders to cover in jolly ole’ England.
Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears (+2) – My pick is Chicago Bears
The Packers start off slow year after year. They will have trouble with this year’s Bears. I know Chris Conte will still be out there to give up one or two big plays per game, but the Bears will squeak this one out.
Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans (-3) – My pick is Houston Texans
I’m not sold on EJ Manuel just yet. This will be a huge test. He’s not ready (just yet) to win at Houston.
Carolina Panthers at Baltimore Ravens (-3.5) – My pick is Carolina Panthers
The Steve Smith Sr. Bowl will finally take place on Sunday. I know Carolina got smoked by Pittsburgh last week, but I still believe in them. They just didn’t match up well against Pittsburgh. Give me Carolina to ‘whoop’ on Baltimore.
Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts (-7.5) – My pick is Indianapolis Colts
Charlie Whitehurst will start for the Titans…and they might be better off. Whitehurst had a few nice starts as a backup in the past. I just think the Colts have been tested so far and are better than their record. They will roll at home against the Titans.
Jacksonville Jaguars at San Diego Chargers (-13) – My pick is Jacksonville Jaguars
It’s time to bob and weave with Jacksonville. They are 0-3 ATS and the spread has inflated to almost two touchdowns. I’m not saying the Jags will win, but this week could be the week they win against the spread.
Atlanta Falcons at Minnesota Vikings (+3.5) – My pick is Atlanta Falcons
Give me the Falcons…All. Day.
Philadelphia Eagles at San Francisco 49ers (-4.5) – My pick is San Francisco 49ers
The Eagles are becoming a bit overrated. They’ve had a comeback every game and they can’t keep doing that. The Niners will hold serve and cover at home.
New Orleans Saints at Dallas Cowboys (+3) – My pick is New Orleans Saints
As much as I want to pick Dallas (since the Saints are horrible on the road)…but I can’t. I’ve seen too many Cowboys games to know how this ends.
New England Patriots at Kansas City Chiefs (+3) – My pick is Kansas City Chiefs
Arrowhead can cause weird things to happen. The Chiefs looked great last week at Miami and they will keep this game close. Give me the points and a possible moneyline upset.
*These picks are for entertainment purposes
Sweetbob was 133-95-10 against the spread in NFL games last season.
Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on Twitter at @Sweetbob