2013 NFL Week 9 – Betting Picks Against Spread

crazy-nfl-fan-indianapolis-coltsI had another good week. I went 9-4 last week. I missed on the Atlanta and Kansas City games (like everybody else), but I also picked the Giants on a moneyline play for the upset. My season record against the spread is 61-35-7 on the season.

Say goodbye to any value in the points spreads. The value is now in the decent teams coming off a loss (Atlanta, Dallas, Washington). Those plays are risky, but they’ll payoff again this week. Keep those teams in mind in the coming weeks.

Six teams are on bye this week, so there are three less games this weekend. Whoever made that decision in the NFL office should be fired. I’m sure he’s the same guy who’s pushing for more NFL games in London.

We pick every NFL game against the spread and throw out a few upsets in Week 9 of the NFL season.

Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills (+3) – My pick is Kansas City Chiefs

This game is difficult to handicap. Do we really know how good the Chiefs are? They’ve played a cupcake schedule and barely squeaked out a win at home against Cleveland last week. There’s been value in Buffalo’s betting lines so far. They are 5-3 ATS, but Chiefs will take care of business in Buffalo on Sunday.

Tennessee Titans at St. Louis Rams (+3) – My pick is Tennessee Titans

I hate picking against home underdogs at this point in the season. I’ve actually picked against a few home dogs this week. Jake Locker is back and the Rams quarterback situation is a mess. I really like the Titans in this game.

San Diego Chargers at Washington Redskins (+1) – My pick is Washington Redskins

I’m going with an old standby with my pick this week. The ‘west coast team traveling to the east coast for a 1pm EST game” theory. The Redskins can put up points on any defense, but their own defense is poor. They’ve looked good the last two weeks, even though they had the lead against Denver, but they imploded in the fourth quarter. I love Washington’s value and pick the Redskins to cover.

Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers (-7.5) – My pick is Atlanta Falcons

Carolina has covered three weeks in row and Vegas has figured them out. It’s rare that an NFL team to cover more than three weeks in a row. Atlanta looked like garbage against Arizona last week, but they’re too talented of a team to be 2-5 ATS the spread. Vegas has also adjusted on them as well. Carolina may still win the game, but I don’t see them covering a spread over a touchdown.

Minnesota Vikings at Dallas Cowboys (-10.5) – My pick is Dallas Cowboys

I’ve been all-in on Dallas this season. That being said, it’s difficult to cover a double-digit point spread in the NFL. The public is undeterred with last week’s embarrassing loss to Detroit. The line opened at -10 and some sporstbooks alredy have the game at -12. At the time of this post, you can still get a -10.5 at sportsbook.ag and topbet.eu. I hate Minnesota’s quarterback situation and the Cowboys will put eight men in the box against Adrian Peterson. Give me the Cowboys to cover at home.

New Orleans Saints at New York Jets (-5.5) – My pick is New Orleans Saints

Here I am going against a home dog again. Home teams this week are just facing tough opponents. The Jets have won every other week this season, but New Orleans is playing too well to not cover at the Meadowlands.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Seattle Seahawks (-15.5) – My pick is Seattle Seahawks

I hate picking three teams to cover double-digit point spreads this week, but going into Seattle is a tough task for an 0-7 team. The Bucs are only 1-6 ATS and Seattle already covered a -19.5 spread at home against the Jaguars earlier this season. The Bucs are in the wrong place at the wrong time. Seattle will win big at home.

Philadelphia Eagles at Oakland Raiders (-2.5) – My pick is Oakland Raiders

I can’t stomach to watch this game. Matt Barkley and Terrelle Pryor face off in a re-match of their USC/Ohio State games, in which USC won both contests. Unfortunately, those USC teams are better than this year’s Eagles team. Pryor will use his legs in a Raiders win.

Pittsburgh Steelers at New England Patriots (-7) – My pick is New England Patriots

It’s no surprise this line hasn’t moved all week. Both teams are very public and often get heavy bets. I see a lot of value in picking New England this week. They struggled in the first half of last week’s game and Pittsburgh got embarrassed by Raiders. The Steelers let the Raiders run all over them. I believe the offenses are equal (due to Brady’s receivers’ poor play), so the game will come down to defense. I give the nod to the Patriots in that category. This game will be close to the spread, so a push wouldn’t surprise me, but my jellybeans are on New England.

Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns (+2.5) – My pick is Cleveland Browns

The Ravens have burned me a few times this season. They’re not playing well right now. I trust the Browns defense more. Jason Campbell is an upgrade over Brandon Weeden. I like the Browns to prevent the Ravens from covering on the road.

Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans (+2.5) – My pick is Indianapolis Colts

I’m taking the team I know. The Texans are a huge question mark with Case Keenum at quarterback. The Colts secondary play a physical style that will throw off his timing. Indy will miss Reggie Wayne a lot, but I have faith Andrew Luck will find other receivers. I like the Colts to win on the road by more than a field goal.

Cincinnati Bengals at Miami Dolphins (+3) – [Thursday] – My pick is Cincinnati Bengals

After Cincinnati destroyed the Jets last week, it’s hard to go against them. They have corrected their early season mistakes. I’ve been against Miami for most of the season and they’re only 3-4 ATS. Cincinnati is much better at 5-2-1 ATS. The Bengals will win on the road Thursday night.

Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers (-10.5) – [Monday] – My pick is Green Bay Packers

Green Bay is playing great. Teammates have faith in Josh McCown to keep the offense moving with Jay Cutler on the shelf. A double-digit spread against another NFC North team is hard to cover, but I like Green Bay on Monday nights. The Packers offense is balanced with Eddie Lacy playing like a rookie of the year candidate.

*These picks are for entertainment purposes

Sweetbob is currently 61-35-7 on the season.

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