We had a good Week 3 with our betting picks against the spread. We went 10-6 and went with the money line in the Detroit game. We are liking a lot of road teams to win ATS this week. It could be a recurring trend this season, since home-field advantage doesn’t seem to be holding up this year. Could the Lions win two in a row? Could the Steelers go 1-3 to start the season? Here are our Week 4 NFL betting picks against the spread.
I don’t think home-field advantage is as important so far this season as it has been in the past. It will change later on in the season when snow and heavy winds may sway the momentum of the game. This early in the season, teams are still tweaking with the offense and many lack an identity. The good teams will win on the road and the bad teams will lose at home.
Oakland Raiders (+9) at Houston Texans (-9) – My pick is Oakland
I might be insane, but the Raiders can still run the ball and Houston is the worst in the league at stopping the run. Oakland may not win this game, but should keep it close, with or without JaMarcus Russell.
Tennessee Titans (-3) at Jacksonville Jaguars (+3) – My pick is Tennessee
Jacksonville looked good last week, but the Titans are hungry for their first win. The AFC South games are usually closer than most games, but the Titans will win this game by more than 3 points.
Baltimore Ravens (+2) at New England Patriots (-2) – My pick is Baltimore
I missed on the Falcons beating the Patriots last week, but the Ravens are a better team than Atlanta. Joe Flacco may not have many weapons, but they have a dual-threat running game that will cause New England’s D-line to struggle. I like the Ravens to out-right win this contest.
New York Giants (-9) at Kansas City Chiefs (+9) – My pick is New York
The Giants faced a large spread last week and they easily covered. I think it will happen again this weekend. They will shutdown Larry Johnson and force the Chiefs to throw on their secondary. The pass rushers for the Giants will have a field day on Matt Cassel.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+7.5) at Washington Redskins (-7.5) – My pick is Tampa Bay
The Bucs will be forced to rely on Carnell Williams and Derrick Ward in this game. Albert Haynesworth is hurting, so the Bucs will be able to run all over Washington. I don’t care who Tampa Bay has at quarterback, it won’t matter much in this game.
Seattle Seahawks (+10.5) at Indianapolis Colts (-10.5) – My pick is Seattle
The Colts will win this game, but they don’t normally beat opponents by much. Seattle will be without Matt Hasselbeck, but Seneca Wallace is a good back-up. Julius Jones will have a good game, but the Colts will make defensive stops when it counts.
Cincinnati Bengals (-6) at Cleveland Browns (+6) – My pick is Cincinnati
The Bengals looked great against the Steelers last week and the Browns were their usual horrible Browns. The Bengals defense has improved a lot from last season and I see them winning this game by a lot. The Browns can’t score on any NFL team this year, Derek Anderson won’t change anything for them.
Detroit Lions (+10) at Chicago Bears (-10) – My pick is Chicago
Could the Lions possibly win two weeks in a row? I doubt it, the Bears looks to finally have things starting to mold. Matt Forte must have a big game, the Bears need him to get going this season or their hopes of making the playoffs could end soon. The Bears win this game easily, by two touchdowns.
New York Jets (+7) at New Orleans Saints (-7) – My pick is New York
The Saints always start off looking unbeatable, but when they face a good defense, they don’t seem so powerful. Bart Scott and the rest of the Jets defense will make Drew Brees work for their yards. I’m not sure if the Jets wins this game, but they will keep it within seven points.
Buffalo Bills (-1) at Miami Dolphins (+1) – My pick is Buffalo
Miami will have to rely on Chad Henne and their running game to put points on the board, but the Bills have more weapons on offense than the Dolphins. I look for Terrell Owens to finally get going and Fred Jackson to dominate in this game. The Bills will win this game, in a close one.
St. Louis Rams (+9.5) at San Francisco 49ers (-9.5) – My pick is San Francisco
The Rams could be the worst team in the league. Kyle Boller adds a better passing option than Marc Bulger, but the 49ers came into their own against the Vikings last weekend. Vernon Davis finally has his head screwed on straight and is a physical beast. Shaun Hill will keep targeting him against the Rams and win this game and cover the spread.
Dallas Cowboys (-3) at Denver Broncos (+3) – My pick is Dallas
Denver has not played any team that did not make the playoffs last year and Dallas has played three games against teams that finished over .500 last season. I know what kind of team the Cowboys are after three games, I have no clue if Denver is any good yet. This game will prove it and Denver is a hoax, the Cowboys will run all over them and win this game and cover.
San Diego Chargers (+6.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers (-6.5) – My pick is San Diego
I am not sure if many people saw the Bengals/Steelers game last week, because this line has moved a lot in the Steelers favor since it has opened. Troy Polamalu isn’t going to play and Antonio Gates will be free to catch everything win sight. The Chargers will go into Pittsburgh and win this game. This is my upset of the week.
Green Pay Packers (+3.5) at Minnesota Vikings (-3.5) – My pick is Minnesota
Brett Favre will be pumped up to play his old team on Monday Night Football. Green Bay’s new 3-4 defense will cause Farve some trouble, so look for Adrian Peterson to run amok. Ryan Grant will have a good game and Aaron Rodgers will have a lot on his shoulders if the Packers plan on keeping this one close. Give me the Vikings ATS in this game.
I hope you enjoy our picks. They are for entertainment purposes and please bet responsibly.
