I finished 12-13 last week after betting against some large point spreads. I whiffed because many big spreads covered last week.
The best betting advice I can give someone at this point in the season is if you don’t have a good ‘feel’ for a team or have missed on a lot of bets on a certain team, abandon them. If you don’t, you’ll just be chasing your own tail trying to break even.
We at ‘America’s White Boy’ pick against the spread for all the big college football games on Saturday (November 12th, 2016) and a few Thursday games. We also pick five extra games as a bonus.
USC at Washington (-9) – My pick is Washington Huskies
USC has won five-straight games after losing back-to-back road games early this season. QB Sam Darnold is one of the best quarterbacks in the Pac 12 and he’s only a freshman. USC is 4-1 ATS during their winning streak. Washington comes into this game undefeated and currently seeded in the College Football Playoff. They haven’t been as good against the spread lately, but that’s mostly due to all the hype surrounding the team. Washington QB Jake Browning could start to run away with the Heisman with a strong showing in a marquee game. I’m taking the Huskies to cover.
Michigan at Iowa (+21.5) – My pick is Michigan Wolverines
I really hated this spread at first glance, but after Penn State’s 41-14 win over Iowa, I can see Michigan’s path to a cover. Penn State ran for 359 yards against Iowa. If Michigan gets near that total, their defense should stop the Hawkeyes enough for a cover. I do fear that half-point a little, but Michigan has covered some large point spreads this season. I have to take Michigan here.
LSU at Arkansas (+7.5) – My pick is Arkansas Razorbacks
LSU were shutout at home against Alabama, but if a team could take anything positive away from a shutout, they did only give up ten points to a potent Alabama offense. LSU is a perennial SEC powerhouse school, so I don’t expect them to really hang their hats on only losing by ten points to Alabama. Arkansas has handled LSU the last two years. They have also stopped LSU RB Leonard Fournette from doing any damage. I think Arkansas keeps this one close, so I’m taking the points.
Auburn at Georgia (+10) – My pick is Auburn Tigers
I have talked some smack about Auburn this season, but they have proven me wrong. The Tigers are actually 7-2 ATS this season. I haven’t featured them in my picks much since I felt I was so wrong on scouting them early in the season that I should probably just avoid them. Georgia squeaked by Kentucky last week and are a team in transition. Auburn should take advantage of them and unleash RB Kamryn Pettway, who is currently injured, but could play. Auburn should cover on the road.
Georgia Tech at Virginia Tech (-14) – My pick is Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
We all know Georgia Tech has a funky rushing attack that teams can have issues against. There are ACC teams out there like North Carolina and Clemson that never really have issues with the triple-option. Virginia Tech hasn’t fared as well against it. You can’t really practice against it, since your scout players won’t be as good as the players you’re facing on Saturday. I still think the Hokies win the game, but they will be pulling their hair out at times dealing with GT’s ever-changing backfield. I have to take the points.
Texas Tech at Oklahoma State (-12) – My pick is Texas Tech Red Raiders
Oklahoma State put up 70 points against Texas Tech in Lubbock last season. Texas Tech wasn’t too shabby themselves with 53 points, so it wasn’t really a blowout. I believe we will see another shootout this weekend. Texas Tech couldn’t stop the run against Texas last week, but Oklahoma State doesn’t have much of a running attack to worry about. I have to take the points in a high scoring affair.
Mississippi State at Alabama (-29) – My pick is Mississippi State Bulldogs
Don’t sleep on Mississippi State this weekend. They have a decent offense, but I worry about their defense. They were able to knockoff Texas A&M last week, so they come into this game with momentum. Remember, Alabama wasn’t exactly scoring at will against LSU last week. This spread is a little too big, so I’m taking the points.
Kentucky at Tennessee (-13.5) – My pick is Kentucky Wildcats
I feel like people get the idea that I have a man crush on Kentucky QB Stephen Johnson. I just see the vast improvement of Kentucky’s offense since he took over the starting job. Kentucky is still a flawed team, but they will hold their own against middle-of-the-road SEC teams. I believe Tennessee fits that description now that they lost their last three SEC games. I don’t think the Vols have the firepower to cover. I’m taking the points.
Baylor at Oklahoma (-16) – My pick is Oklahoma Sooners
Both Baylor (2-6 ATS) and Oklahoma (3-6 ATS) have been poor against the spread this season. Baylor was ran out of their own stadium against TCU last week. They couldn’t stop the run to save their lives. Well, guess who is back for Oklahoma? RB Samaje Perine is expected to suit up for the Sooners. After witnessing what TCU did to Baylor, I expect a lighter workload for QB Baker Mayfield and a non-stop rushing parade from RBs Dimitri Flowers and Perine. I have to take Oklahoma to cover at home.
Appalachian State at Troy (pk) – My pick is Appalachian State Mountaineers
This is when we pick a game with smaller conference teams. We usually pick a MAC conference game here, but this game stands out. Appalachian State is 7-2 with their two losses coming against Tennessee and Miami (FL). Troy is 7-1 on the year and their only loss was at Clemson. You have two very solid small schools that should have a really close game. Appalachian State has the better defense and has averaged over 300 rushing yards the last two games. I just don’t think Troy will be able to hang on.
Notre Dame at Army (+14) – My pick is Notre Dame
Ohio State at Maryland (+28.5) – My pick is Ohio State
South Carolina at Florida (-11.5) – My pick is South Carolina
Utah at Arizona State (+6) – My pick is Utah
Penn State at Indiana (+7) – My pick is Indiana
Tulsa at Navy (+1.5) – My pick is Navy
Illinois at Wisconsin (-26.5) – My pick is Illinois
Vanderbilt at Missouri (-3.5) – My pick is Vanderbilt
Colorado at Arizona (+15.5) – My pick is Colorado
California at Washington State (-14.5) – My pick is Washington State
SMU at East Carolina (-7.5) – My pick is East Carolina
Miami (OH) at Buffalo (+10.5) – My pick is Miami (OH)
Rice at Charlotte (-10.5) – My pick is Charlotte
Texas-San Antonio vs Louisiana Tech (-22.5) – My pick is UTSA
South Florida at Memphis (+3) – My pick is South Florida
Sweetbob’s college football picks against the spread record in previous seasons:
*These picks are for entertainment purposes
Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on Twitter at @Sweetbob.