I went 7-5-1 last week after missing on some late games. I did hit on a couple nice moneylines, but really wish the Vikings looked better. They started out so hot, but they have now fell on their faces.
There are six teams on a bye week once again and there isn’t a game in London…so you can sleep in on Sunday!
We are starting to get some more division games this week, so there’s some historic information out there that can help you out. That info will be huge the last month of the season.
We pick ever NFL game against the spread and throw out a few upsets in Week 9 of the 2016 NFL season.
Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+4) – My pick is Atlanta Falcons
Many people weren’t expecting much from the Falcons after their week one loss to Tampa Bay in Atlanta. The Falcons then won their next four games. QB Matt Ryan has been great this season and is putting up the best offensive numbers of his career. The Falcons do need to run the ball 20+ times, with at least modest success, to cover. Atlanta has struggled this year when they become one-dimensional. Tampa Bay is currently one-dimensional after multiple injuries in their backfield. I think Atlanta gets payback and covers on the road.
Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings (-6.5) – My pick is Detroit Lions
I was quite bullish on the Vikings and they’ve let me down the last two weeks. Their defense is still solid, but I worry about their offense. Teams have figured out how to stop QB Sam Bradford while also stopping their mediocre running game. If teams stack the box and take away the short throws, Bradford isn’t as effective. The Lions have the receivers to force the Vikings secondary to really work to stop them. I have to take the points in this game.
New York Jets at Miami Dolphins (-4) – My pick is Miami Dolphins
The jets have won two-in-a-row, but neither of their opponents (Cleveland or Baltimore) are very good at running the ball. The Jets were god awful in the first half against Cleveland, but turned things around to win. Miami is a very good running team with RB Jay Ajayi coming off back-to-back 200+ yard games. Ajayi should have every opportunity to have another good game this weekend. I’m taking Miami to cover at home.
Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants (-2.5) – My pick is New York Giants
The Eagles attempted to dink and dunk the Cowboys to death last week, but Dallas won in overtime. Rookie QB Carson Wentz completed 32 passes on 43 attempts, but only had 202 passing yards. The Giants had a bye week just as Odell Beckham Jr. got hot. I don’t anticipate the rest hurting him. I’m taking the Giants to cover at home.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens (-3) – My pick is Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers are going through some tough times with injuries, but the Ravens haven’t impressed me all year. QB Ben Roethlisberger appears to still be out healing from knee surgery, but he did resume some football activities this week. I guess it wouldn’t completely surprise me if he ends up playing, but I’m planning on Landry Jones to start. The Steelers still have enough weapons to keep this one close, so I’m taking the points.
Dallas Cowboys at Cleveland Browns (+7) – My pick is Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys are 6-1 and are on a roll. They are a popular Vegas team since they have won six straight games against the spread. I knew this line would be a little high based on that and how bad the Browns have played this season. Cleveland should have had their first win last week, but gave the game away in the second half. I have to take Dallas to cover here.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Kansas City Chiefs (-9.5) – My pick is Jacksonville Jaguars
The Chiefs are dealing with some injuries. QB Alex Smith bounced in and out of last week’s game after ‘almost’ suffered a concussion…and then coming back in the game and definitely suffered a concussion. Their backfield is also struggling with Spencer Ware getting a concussion and with them placing Jamaal Charles on injured-reserve. The Jags have struggled running the ball, but fired their offensive coordinator after losing to Tennessee last Thursday. I am not sure if the banged-up Chiefs can put up enough to cover this one. I’m taking the points.
New Orleans Saints at San Francisco 49ers (+3) – My pick is New Orleans Saints
I don’t want anything to do with San Francisco right now. New Orleans is great on offense and I just don’t think the Niners can keep up with the Saints on the scoreboard. The Saints should cover in the Bar Area.
Carolina Panthers at Los Angeles Rams (+3) – My pick is Carolina Panthers
Man, I’m taking a lot of road teams…but I feel good about the picks so far. The Panthers looked great after their bye week in their win at home against Arizona. I think they have straightened out some of their issues. I expect them to get on a roll and turn their season around.
Tennessee Titans at San Diego Chargers (-5) – My pick is San Diego Chargers
San Diego has been pretty good against the run this season and the Titans sure love to run. I have a feeling San Diego rookie Joey Bosa will keep Tennessee QB Marcus Mariota in check. This line could be a little tight to cover, but I think the Chargers get it done.
Indianapolis Colts at Green Bay Packers (-7) – My pick is Green Bay Packers
Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers has had his ups and downs this season, but he hasn’t played pretty great the last two weeks. Indy star cornerback Vontae Davis is in the concussion-protocol as I type this, so it’s unknown if he will play. I’m going to assume he doesn’t suit up, and it he doesn’t, Rodgers will have a field day with the Colts secondary. I have to take the Packers to cover.
Denver Broncos at Oakland Raiders (pk) – My pick is Denver Broncos
Oakland is a beast on the road, but have struggled at home this season. They still haven’t really figured out their issues in their secondary. It has made many games a struggle just to come back and win. Denver is too talented on offense to let this opportunity to go to waste. I think Denver gets it done in Oakland.
Buffalo Bills at Seattle Seahawks (-6.5) – My pick is Buffalo Bills
Seattle isn’t the same team that has been invincible at home. They are still undefeated there, but the games have been a battle until the end. Seattle’s offense is a tad broken. They miss a dominating running back and players in the backfield that can block for QB Russell Wilson. I just don’t trust them to cover this spread against a team that can run the ball. I’m taking the points.
*These picks are for entertainment purposes
Sweetbob’s NFL picks against the spread record in previous seasons:
Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on Twitter at @Sweetbob