I went 6-2 with my NFL picks against the spread and over/under picks last weekend. I went 3-1 against the spread and 3-1 with my over/under picks. I believe I should have been 4-0 ATS, but Big Ben was nearly murdered by Vontaze Burfict…but you can’t predict injuries, so it is was it is.
Three of the four playoff games are being played outdoors this weekend, so check weather reports before kickoff. Denver, Charlotte and Foxborough are all supposed to be clear skies and relatively pleasant this weekend.
The road teams won all four playoff games last weekend. Will the trend continue?
We pick every NFL Divisional Playoff game against the spread.
Since there are only four games this weekend, as a bonus I will also pick the over/under for each game.
Kansas City Chiefs at New England Patriots (-5) – over/under (42) – My pick is Kansas City Chiefs & OVER
Kansas City smoked Houston last week to advance. Kansas City dominated from the opening kickoff, which Knile Davis took 100+ yards for a touchdown. The Chiefs are a good story and have deserved every bit of their success this year. They do have three injuries that I worry may hurt them. WR Jeremy Maclin and linebackers Justin Houston and Tamba Hali haven’t participated much in practice this week. They are all game-time decisions. The Patriots limped into the postseason after losing their last two games. I expect this game to play out like their game against the Jets in Week 16. The Pats lost that game in overtime. This game will be won & lost in the trenches. I’m not sure if KC will beat New England, but this one will be close. I’m taking the points and the over.
Green Bay Packers at Arizona Cardinals (-7) – over/under (50) – My pick is Arizona Cardinals & UNDER
The Packers got annihilated in Arizona just a few weeks ago. Green Bay’s offensive line was destroyed by Arizona’s pass rush. Aaron Rodgers was sacked nine times in that game. I usually don’t like to look at a previous team’s matchup to make an definite judgment, but Arizona was just so dominant in that game. The game won’t be as big of a blowout. I don’t think Arizona will need to score a lot to cover this spread. I’m picking Arizona to cover and taking the under.
Seattle Seahawks at Carolina Panthers (-2) – over/under (44) – My pick is Carolina Panthers & UNDER
The last time these two teams played, it turned out to be Carolina’s coming out party. They came back in the fourth quarter to win in Seattle. Carolina RB Jonathan Stewart is expected to play his first game since injurying his foot in Week 14. Seattle RB Marshawn Lynch is currently questionable and it wouldn’t surprise me if he was ruled out on Sunday. Carolina will be tested in this game. I expect a defense-oriented game between these teams. It will be a close one. I’m picking Carolina to cover (maybe by a late field goal) and I’m taking the under in this contest.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Denver Broncos (-7) – over/under (39.5) – My pick is Denver Broncos & UNDER
If Big Ben was healthy, I’d probably pick the Steelers to win this game outright. He is currently listed as questionable with a sprained AC joint and torn ligaments in his throwing shoulder. Also, RB DeAngelo Williams is expected to miss this game with a foot injury AND WR Antonio Brown still isn’t cleared from the concussion he suffered last weekend. I can’t imagine Big Ben will be very effective in his condition and I have no faith in Landry Jones. I hate taking spreads that are a touchdown or greater in the playoffs, but Pittsburgh’s injuries are just too great to ignore. I’m taking Denver to cover and picking the under.
*These picks are for entertainment purposes
Sweetbob’s NFL picks against the spread record in previous seasons:
Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on Twitter at @Sweetbob