I went 10-3-1 last week against the spread. I’ve had back-to-back monster weeks. I even hit on two moneyline plays last week that paid out pretty nice (Colts & Bucs).
New England Patriots receivers are dropping like flies. Is this the week the perfect season comes to an end?
We pick every NFL game against the spread and throw out a few upsets in Week 12 of the 2015 NFL season.
Philadelphia Eagles at Detroit Lions (-1) – My pick is Detroit Lions
Philly got killed by Jameis Winston and nearly every other member of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last week. Sam Bradford apparently passed the concussion protocol this week, so it looks like Mark Sanchez will go back to the bench. Tampa Bay killed Philly’s secondary by having their large receivers overpower them. Guess who has the league’s best large receiver? Calvin Johnson should have a nice game. I’m taking the Lions on Turkey Day.
Carolina Panthers at Dallas Cowboys (+1) – My pick is Carolina Panthers
Vegas appears to want us to bet on Carolina, because this line is a bit bonkers. I agree that Tony Romo makes Dallas much, much better, but Vegas has a lot of faith in him. Dallas is a very public team, so maybe this line is hoping to get more action on Carolina. I’m still going with my gut and picking Carolina.
Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers (-9) – My pick is Chicago Bears
I loved Green Bay earlier this season, then they went on a slide. Chicago has been playing much better lately. Jay Cutler appears to be getting the hang of the new offense. I’m hoping running back Matt Forte, tight end Martellus Bennett and wide receiver Alshon Jeffery will play on Thursday. I think this game will be closer than expected. I’m taking the points.
Oakland Raiders at Tennessee Titans (+2) – My pick is Oakland Raiders
The Titans have been horrible at home the last two seasons. They haven’t won a single game at home this season. Oakland has played some of their best games on the road. The Raiders are underrated and think they win this game by a touchdown or more. I’m taking Oakland on the road to cover.
San Diego Chargers at Jacksonville Jaguars (-4) – My pick is San Diego Chargers
Wow, the Jaguars are favored in back-to-back games. I bet you’d have to go back to the David Garrard days to have seen that happen the last time. The Jags won a sloppy game last Thursday in which neither team appeared to want to win the game. I like Blake Bortles in about every other possession. He still makes way too many mistakes for Jacksonville to win consistently. San Diego is a better road team than at home. The Chargers are getting nothing from their running game. Philip Rivers looks like he could be playing hurt, but he has enough weapons to play the short passing game to keep this game close. I don’t trust Jacksonville to cover anything more than a field goal. I’m taking the points.
Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs (-4) – My pick is Kansas City Chiefs
This game is off the board at a lot of sportsbooks until they find out if Tyrod Taylor is healthy enough to play. I don’t think it matters much. The Chiefs are just clicking on every level. The offensive line is so locked in that it doesn’t matter which running back carries the ball. They have been winning the battle in the trenches. Kansas City is playing its best football right now. I’m taking the Chiefs to cover at Arrowhead.
Miami Dolphins at New York Jets (-3.5) – My pick is New York Jets
The Jets beat the Dolphins 27-14 in London earlier this year. It was Miami head coach Joe Philbin’s final game. The Dolphins have had moments of success since, but they have lost three of their last four games. The Jets are also on a slide and have went 0-4-1 ATS since Week 6. I don’t trust neither quarterback to have much ball security. I believe Ryan Tannehill will make one more mistake than Ryan Fitzpatrick. I’m taking the Jets to cover at home.
New Orleans Saints at Houston Texans (-3) – My pick is New Orleans Saints
Brian Hoyer appears to be healthy enough to start on Sunday for the Texans. It will be interesting to see how well the Texans will move the ball against the Rob Ryan-less Saints defense. I’ve been burned by the Saints a few times this year. Their defense has just been atrocious. I just don’t trust the Texans offense to win a shootout. I’m taking the points.
St. Louis Rams at Cincinnati Bengals (-9) – My pick is Cincinnati Bengals
The Rams suffered an unfortunate ending to their loss to the Ravens. Quarterback Case Keenum clearly suffered a concussion, yet he stayed in the game only to fumble the ball soon after. The Ravens then kicked a field goal to win the game. The Bengals started the year off with eight-straight wins, but have lost back-to-back games. Cincinnati will right the ship and cover at home against the Rams. I just don’t trust the St. Louis offense to score many points.
Minnesota Vikings at Atlanta Falcons (-1.5) – My pick is Minnesota Vikings
I don’t know what to make of this betting line. It opened up at -2.5 and has been bet down to -1.5 at the time of this post. I expect this line to be bet down even more by kickoff (it wouldn’t surprise me if this game became a pick’em). The Falcons aren’t as good as they looked early in the season. Atlanta is 0-6 ATS in their last six games, and in those games, they are 2-4 outright. Minnesota didn’t look great against Green Bay last week, but it was basically a must-win game for the Packers. I’m going to take the points and possible Minnesota moneyline play.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Indianapolis Colts (-3) – My pick is Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Andrew Luck will not play in this game. The Colts will start Matt Hasselbeck, who is 3-0 this season as the starter. He’s more of a game manager quarterback, so don’t expect huge fantasy numbers from him. Tampa Bay has been playing great lately. Jameis Winston finally figured out how to use Mike Evans properly. I can’t wait until Vincent Jackson and Austin Seferian-Jenkins are both healthy. The Colts could have trouble with the Bucs. I’m taking the points and a possible Tampa Bay moneyline play.
New York Giants at Washington Redskins (+3) – My pick is New York Giants
The Redskins fell back down to Earth after their big win against New Orleans. Washington was thoroughly trounced by Carolina. Their secondary just gave up too many big plays. I expect Odell Beckham Jr. to have a really nice day. I don’t see Washington doing much with him. I’m taking the points.
Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers (+10.5) – My pick is Arizona Cardinals
Arizona won a huge statement game over Cincinnati last week. They needed to prove that they are a true contender and beating Cincinnati helped cement that. San Francisco is a dumpster fire at this point. Arizona beat San Francisco by 40 points earlier this season. I really hate picking a double-digit point cover on the road, but the Niners are so, so bad. I’m taking Arizona to cover.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Seattle Seahawks (-3.5) – My pick is Pittsburgh Steelers
Seattle isn’t the same Seattle team that made it to back-to-back Super Bowls. They have issues on offense and their defense isn’t as stout. Marshawn Lynch isn’t expected to play. Rookie running back Thomas Rawls had a career day against the Niners last week, but that won’t happen against the Steelers. Seattle is a tough place for a road team to play, but Pittsburgh’s offense will test Seattle’s secondary. I’m taking the points.
New England Patriots at Denver Broncos (+3) – My pick is Denver Broncos
New England is perfect on the season, but they have been losing key guys on offense week after week. Danny Amendola has a sprained knee, but he could miss this game. The Patriots don’t have many options at receiver at this point. Denver may need to triple-team Rob Gronkowski. Brock Osweiler played well in his first career start. Peyton Manning is expected to miss a few more weeks. It would be apropos for Osweiler to beat New England after Manning struggled to do so for many years. This game will be close. I’m taking the points and Denver as a possible moneyline play.
Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns (-3) – My pick is Cleveland Browns
ESPN promoted this game last week as a Johnny Football drool fest, but he was demoted after going H.A.M. in Austin, Texas during the bye week. Baltimore will be without quarterback Joe Flacco and running back Justin Forsett in this game and for the rest of the season. Josh McCown isn’t a bad quarterback. They shouldn’t have an issue covering at home on Monday night.
*These picks are for entertainment purposes
Sweetbob’s NFL picks against the spread record in previous seasons:
Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on Twitter at @Sweetbob