I went 8-5 last week against the spread. I bounced back from a rough outing and hit on some nice moneylines. The underdogs put me well ahead for the week. I did miss on my Giants moneyline play, but I felt good that it nearly paid out.
New England appears to be as vulnerable as ever with the loss of wide receiver Julian Edelman. Can Buffalo end their bid for a perfect season?
We pick every NFL game against the spread and throw out a few upsets in Week 11 of the 2015 NFL season.
Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars (-3) – My pick is Jacksonville Jaguars
This is only the third time in the last two seasons that Jacksonville has been favored in a game. They lost the game against Houston that they were favored in earlier this year, but covered the -4 spread against Tennessee last year. The Jaguars are getting better little-by-little as the season progresses. They aren’t making huge strides, but I like their ability to move the ball through the air. Blake Bortles has talent, but he needs to limit his interceptions. The Titans have had some good moments with Marcus Mariota, but I like the Jags on the short week.
St. Louis Rams at Baltimore Ravens (-1.5) – My pick is St. Louis Rams
Case Keenum is the new starting quarterback in St. Louis. I’ve followed his career since he was a freshman at the University of Houston. I always thought he had the talent to possibly succeed in the NFL. He had a shot with the Texans, but it was a team in distress with injuries and a lame-duck head coach. The change at quarterback may give this young team a shot of energy. The Ravens have had a handful of tough, close losses. They are really close to packing it in and calling it a lost year. I’m taking the Rams as a possible moneyline play.
Dallas Cowboys at Miami Dolphins (+1) – My pick is Dallas Cowboys
I said last week that the Cowboys wouldn’t win a game until Tony Romo comes back. Well, it appears that he will start on Sunday. The Brandon Weeden/Matt Cassel circus appears to be over, but with Romo’s shaky injury history, they will have to take it one week at a time. Miami’s honeymoon period for their interim head coach is over. They were dominated by New England and Buffalo, but managed to hold off Philly last week. The Cowboys are delusional enough to think they still have a shot at the postseason, so I think they will cover in Miami.
Denver Broncos at Chicago Bears (-1) – My pick is Chicago Bears
The Brock Osweiler era may have officially started last week. Peyton Manning is dealing with an injured foot and severely hampered his ability, so they had to pull him. Osweiler played well, but he’s not on the same level as Peyton (circa 2013). Chicago appears to have finally ironed out the kinks in their new offense. Since they were blanked by Seattle, they are 4-2. Their two losses were only by a field goal in each game (one in overtime). Let’s not forget that Chicago’s head coach and offensive coordinator were in Denver the last few seasons. I’m taking the Bears to cover at home.
Washington Redskins at Carolina Panthers (-7.5) – My pick is Carolina Panthers
This one is simple. When Washington is able to run the ball, they can stay in games. Carolina is very good against the run, so I don’t see Washington being very productive on the ground. Washington would probably be double-digit underdogs if they didn’t score 47 points against Rob Ryan’s swiss cheese defense last week. I’m taking the Panthers to cover at home.
Oakland Raiders at Detroit Lions (+2.5) – My pick is Detroit Lions
I like Oakland and think they finally set themselves up to have a competitive team, but I can’t pick them as a road favorite. The Lions have their issues, but they are coming into this game with confidence after beating Green Bay. The Lions can’t run the ball at all, but Matthew Stafford is starting to spread the ball all over instead of throwing to a triple-teamed Calvin Johnson. The Raiders aren’t quite ready to win (and cover) games on the road as the favorite. I’m taking the Lions.
Indianapolis Colts at Atlanta Falcons (-6) – My pick is Indianapolis Colts
Should Atlanta be giving six points to anyone right now? They lost to the 49ers in their last game! Andrew Luck will miss this game (and possible more) with a lacerated kidney. Matt Hasselbeck has filled in as a game manager and won both his starts this year. Atlanta has lost three out of their last four games. I don’t quite understand this line. I’m taking the points.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Philadelphia Eagles (-5.5) – My pick is Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Man, I’m picking a lot of the dogs this week. Mark Sanchez is expected to start for Philly against Tampa Bay, since Sam Bradford has a sprained AC joint. Tampa Bay has played well in their last two road games. They beat Atlanta in overtime and only lost at Washington by a point (after losing a large lead). I don’t have much faith in Sanchez to fix the wrongs in Philly’s offense. I’m taking the points.
New York Jets at Houston Texans (+2.5) – My pick is New York Jets
Ryan Fitzpatrick is expected to start at quarterback after undergoing surgery on his thumb. The Jets lost to their former coach last Thursday and Houston surprised a lot of people on Monday night by handing Cincinnati their first loss. I believe it was a trap game for Cincinnati as they have a big game at Arizona this week. Don’t read too much into that win. Houston is still a very flawed team. I’m taking the Jets to cover.
Kansas City Chiefs at San Diego Chargers (+3) – My pick is Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs haven’t missed a beat (and have actually been playing better), since they lost Jamaal Charles for the season. San Diego is marred in a ‘we could be moving to Los Angeles’ drama, so playing at home isn’t much of an advantage right now. I’m taking the Chiefs.
San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks (-12.5) – My pick is Seattle Seahawks
One month ago, Seattle beat San Francisco 20-7 on the road. Colin Kaepernick is no longer the starting quarterback for the Niners. Blaine Gabbert won his first start at home against Atlanta. Rumors of in-fighting in Seattle locker room is worrisome, but the Niners may not need to score many points on Sunday. It may not take a ridiculous amount of points to cover this spread.
Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings (+1.5) – My pick is Green Bay Packers
After starting out the year 5-0 ATS, Green Bay has lost their last four games against the spread. Minnesota has been the hottest team in the NFL against the spread. The Vikings are 8-1 ATS on the year. Minnesota relies heavily on the run to control the game. Green Bay has been solid against the run this year. I don’t see Minnesota having a ton of success on the ground, but Adrian Peterson will get some yards, but nowhere near the 200+ he had last week. I’m picking Green Bay to bounce back from a rough stretch and cover on the road.
Cincinnati Bengals at Arizona Cardinals (-5) – My pick is Cincinnati Bengals
Cincinnati lost a trap game against Houston on Monday night. It was a bad game all-around and neither team looked great. Arizona won an emotional game at Seattle last week and they could be due for a letdown. Arizona let Seattle wider receiver Doug Baldwin gain 134 yards in receiving yards. Cincinnati has an excellent receiving corps. They will test Arizona’s secondary. This line seems a bit high, so I’m taking the points.
Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots (-7) – My pick is Buffalo Bills
New England beat Buffalo at their house by the score of 40-32 in late-September. New England has stayed perfect this year, but they suffered two crushing blows lately. They lost Dion Lewis for the year with an ACL injury and Julian Edelman broke his foot last week. Tom Brady won’t be able to utilize the short screen and
illegal pick quick slot passes as well. The Bills have a real shot at ending the Patriots perfection. I’m taking the points.
*These picks are for entertainment purposes
Sweetbob’s NFL picks against the spread record in previous seasons:
Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on Twitter at @Sweetbob