Patriots and Colts fans have had this weekend’s upcoming game circled since the schedule was announced. The Patriots have dominated teams so far and the Colts just hope to get their quarterback on the field.
I went 7-6-1 last week against the spread. I felt pretty good about the outcome. I missed a few early games, but rebounded with the late games. I had two underdog moneyline plays that paid out.
A few players are returning from injuries this week and it doesn’t appear that the weather will play a huge factor this weekend. All eyes are on Andrew Luck since the Colts haven’t made it clear if he will start on Sunday night.
We pick every NFL game against the spread and throw out a few upsets in Week 6 of the 2015 NFL season.
Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints (+3.5) – My pick is Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta is currently undefeated and are 4-1 ATS. NFC South teams have historically been great at home, but the Saints have not been lately. The Falcons have been able to run the ball well for the first time in years. Devonta Freeman has stepped up to become a huge part of the offense. I don’t trust New Orleans at the moment. They haven’t been able to fill the hole Jimmy Graham left in their offense. Atlanta covers on Thursday night.
Denver Broncos at Cleveland Browns (+4.5) – My pick is Cleveland Browns
Denver is in the same boat as Atlanta. They are undefeated and are 4-1 ATS, but Denver’s covers have been by the slimmest of margins. C.J. Anderson has been horrible in the backfield. At this point in Peyton Manning’s career, he needs a strong running game to pull away from teams. Cleveland has been pretty darn good since their opening week loss to the Jets. They are 2-3 on the year, but they’ve been strong the last four games. The biggest surprise during this stretch is realizing Josh McCown isn’t horrible at his job. I’m going to take the points here.
Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars (+1) – My pick is Houston Texans
Brian Hoyer looked pretty good in relief last week. It was bold move to not let Ryan Mallet go back in the game after he was rattled on a play and it nearly paid off. The Texans lost the game, but Hoyer reclaimed his starting job. The Jags lost to Tampa Bay last week, but got an effort from Blake Bortles that made me think that he actually has a future in the NFL. I don’t think he can throw for 300+ yards in back-to-back weeks. J.J. Watt will have him running for his life. I’m taking the Texans to cover.
Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions (-3) – My pick is Detroit Lions
The Lions have had a brutal schedule, but I never thought they would be winless at this point. Detroit has owned the Bears the last two years with Calvin Johnson having some of the most prolific games of his career. They will be extra motivated to get their first win of the year. I’m picking the Lions to cover at home.
Miami Dolphins at Tennessee Titans (-2.5) – My pick is Miami Dolphins
Miami fired Joe Philbin during their bye week and Dan Campbell has taken over that role. The move was a year too late and I believe Miami will respond well to the move. The Titans have put up a fight in nearly ever game this season, so it will be a close one. I’m taking the points.
Washington Redskins at New York Jets (-6) – My pick is Washington Redskins
I have to admit, I don’t have a great ‘feel’ for either team so far this season. I was down on both this preseason, but they have both played well the last two weeks. The Jet did look impressive in London against Miami, but this line seems a tad high. Washington will give them a fight. I’m taking the points.
Arizona Cardinals at Pittsburgh Steelers (+3.5) – My pick is Arizona Cardinals
I’m torn with my pick. The Steelers are rarely ever underdogs at home, but the Cardinals have dominated teams so far. Their one loss came at the hands of Todd Gurley. I do worry that Le’Veon Bell could have a similar game. I just believe Arizona’s secondary will hold up and they can stack the box against Bell. I’m taking the Cardinals to cover on the road.
Cincinnati Bengals at Buffalo Bills (+3.5) – My pick is Cincinnati Bengals
The Bills started out the year on a roll, but they haven’t been able to score many points the last two games. Tyrod Taylor can’t do it alone and their running game has been non-existent with LeSean McCoy on the sideline. Cincinnati’s offense is clicking at every level. Andy Dalton is finally playing like an elite quarterback. The Bills offense won’t be able to keep up. I’m taking the Bengals to cover.
Kansas City Chiefs at Minnesota Vikings (-4) – My pick is Minnesota Vikings
Jamaal Charles is lost for the season. Alex Smith will need to use short passes to act as their running game now. I’m not sure if Charcandrick West and Knile Davis can contribute enough. The Vikings are coming off a bye week. Hopefully Teddy Bridgewater was able to put in some extra work. He hasn’t looked comfortable this year. The Chiefs will get a healthy dose of Adrian Peterson in this one. I’m taking the Vikings to cover.
Carolina Panthers at Seattle Seahawks (-7) – My pick is Carolina Panthers
Seattle isn’t the same team. They are still a good team, but they shouldn’t strike fear in the opposing team’s fan base. Marshawn Lynch is expected to return this week, but Carolina’s run defense has been stout. Carolina will keep this one close. They are coming off a bye week and the extra travel to Seattle shouldn’t be an issue. I’m taking the points in this one.
Baltimore Ravens at San Francisco 49ers (+2.5) – My pick is Baltimore Ravens
Baltimore and San Francisco are both 1-4 on the year, but they are not on the same level. The Ravens have yet to lose by more than six points and have been in overtime games the last two weeks. San Francisco has been getting squashed since their opening week win against Minnesota. The Niners defense is suspect and I don’t trust them at all. The Ravens will cover on the road.
San Diego Chargers at Green Bay Packers (-10.5) – My pick is Green Bay Packers
I know this day would come…the Packers are finally hit with a double-digit point spread. I’ve been riding them all year and are currently 5-0 ATS. San Diego has been keeping their games close, but the Packers, in my opinion, are the best team in the NFL. They are complete and will cover this one.
New England Patriots at Indianapolis Colts (+9.5) – My pick is Indianapolis Colts
As a Colts fan, I am not looking forward to this game. Andrew Luck still isn’t a lock to start on Sunday night. If he doesn’t start, I may have to change my pick. New England has been in ‘eff you’ mode all year. The Colts are the reason the Patriots spent the entire offseason, and most of the regular season, defending against cheating allegations. The Indy crowd will be amped for this one. If Luck plays, it will be closer than most believe. I’m taking the points.
New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5) – My pick is New York Giants
Philly finally looked like the team we thought they’d be this year. It took them a few weeks, but their running game finally helped Sam Bradford. The Giants have one of the best run defenses in the NFL, so it will be hard for the Eagles to duplicate last week’s performance. NFC East matchups are always tight. I’m taking the points.
*These picks are for entertainment purposes
Sweetbob’s NFL picks against the spread record in previous seasons:
Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on Twitter at @Sweetbob