I went 12-4 last week against the spread. I also just missed two games by a single point. I hope I stay hot this week in which there are some nice home underdogs.
Philadelphia, Detroit and Indianapolis all have yet to play up to the level I thought they’d be at right now. Philly is dealing with injuries in the backfield, Detroit has had a tough schedule so far and Indy appears like something is destroying the team from the inside.
We pick every NFL game against the spread and throw out a few upsets in Week 4 of the 2015 NFL season.
Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers (+3) – My pick is Baltimore Ravens
When Pittsburgh and Baltimore face each other, they need 100% effort with everyone healthy to win. They are often physical and can become quite testy. Pittsburgh is without Ben Roethlisberger and Balitmore is without Terrell Suggs, who excels against the Steelers. Baltimore is 0-3 on the year, but have lost those three games by a combined 14 points. They are better than their record. Joe Flacco and Steve Smith Sr. should have another good week against the weaker than normal Pittsburgh defense. I don’t trust Michael Vick to produce much against the Ravens. I’m taking Baltimore to cover.
New York Jets at Miami Dolphins (+2) – My pick is Miami Dolphins
This game is being played in London, England at Wembley Stadium. The travel overseas does weird things to teams. Miami hasn’t shown us much this season. They were average in their win against Washington and then lost to Jacksonville and Buffalo the next two weeks. Ryan Fitzpatrick fell back into bad habits against Philly by throwing three picks. The Dolphins secondary has some playmakers. He will throw a few more in London. Neither team has much of a running game right now due to injuries. I’m taking the points.
Houston Texans at Atlanta Falcons (-7) – My pick is Atlanta Falcons
There are a few injuries to keep an eye on this week. Both Julio Jones and Devonta Freeman are dealing with toe injuries that ‘could’ keep them out. If they play, I’m hitting Atlanta. If I find out they are ruled out, I could change my pick closer to kickoff. Atlanta’s offense has been clicking, but they are also giving up a decent amount of points. The least amount of points they’ve given up is 20…which is also the most points Houston has scored in a game so far. I’m picking Atlanta to cover.
Oakland Raiders at Chicago Bears (+3) – My pick is Oakland Raiders
The Bears traded away two good players on defense this week. They didn’t quite fit their new system, but it doesn’t send a good message to their fans. Jay Cutler is ruled out to play this weekend, so we will get another healthy helping of Jimmy Clausen. The Raiders have looked great the last two weeks. Derek Carr, Latavius Murray and Amari Cooper could turn out to be a great three-headed monster for Oakland. I don’t trust the Bears, so I’m picking Oakland to cover.
Kansas City Chiefs at Cincinnati Bengals (-4) – My pick is Cincinnati Bengals
Andy Dalton has looked great so far this season. He hasn’t been forcing deep balls to A.J. Green as much. His offensive line has given him more time. Kansas City’s offensive line has been much worse. The Green Bay Packers sacked Alex Smith seven times last week. Geno Atkins will keep Smith on the ground this week. I’m taking the Bengals to cover.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts (-9) – My pick is Indianapolis Colts
Andrew Luck is dealing with a shoulder injury. He will play this game, but has been limited in practice so far. The Colts have struggled on both sides of the ball this year. They are 0-3 ATS this season. Jacksonville is coming off a 51-17 beating at the hands of the Patriots. The Jaguars at 0-5 ATS the last five games they faced the Colts. Indy needs to correct some things in this game before they face New England on October 18th. I expect the Colts to cover and look healthy…which many teams do against the Jags.
New York Giants at Buffalo Bills (-5.5) – My pick is New York Giants
Tyrod Taylor looked great against Miami last week. Buffalo clicked on every level. I still don’t think they are as good as advertised. Yes, they are 2-1, but New England did exploit some of their weaknesses. The Bills linebackers don’t do a great job covering tight ends and slot receivers. If the Giants chip away at their defense, Eli Manning should keep this game close. I’m taking the points.
Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Redskins (+3.5) – My pick is Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles put the ball in the hands of Ryan Mathews and Darren Sproles last week. DeMarco Murray sat out with an injury and he’s questionable against Washington. Sam Bradford looked more comfortable throwing shorter passes last week. I expect a lot more of the same. Washington will try to run it more this week. They ran it 37 times for 182 yards in their win against the Rams. They only tried to run the ball 20 times last week for 78 yards in their loss to the Giants. The road team is 11-5-1 ATS in their last 17 meetings. I’m taking the Eagles to cover.
Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3) – My pick is Carolina Panthers
Tampa Bay has looked bad this year. Jameis Winston hasn’t been accurate and the running game hasn’t been able to bail him out. Carolina’s defense should be able to keep Winston on his toes. This line should be a tad higher. I’m taking Carolina to cover on the road.
Cleveland Browns at San Diego Chargers (-7.5) – My pick is Cleveland Browns
Josh McCown was better than expected last week in Cleveland’s loss to Oakland. He distributed the ball all over when the running game wasn’t working out. San Diego could be without two major pieces on the offensive line. King Dunlap and D.J. Fluker are both questionable. This line just seems a bit high. I’d think about picking them if was closer to a field goal, so I’m taking the points.
Minnesota Vikings at Denver Broncos (-7) – My pick is Denver Broncos
Denver’s defense has actually been the biggest factor in their 3-0 ATS record so far this year. Peyton Manning hasn’t been lighting up the scoreboard like in year’s past. It doesn’t help that C.J. Anderson only has 77 yards on the year. Adrian Peterson has carried Minnesota in their two wins. Teddy Bridgewater only has one passing touchdown on the year. Denver has been able to bend and not break against the run. Jamaal Charles did go over 100 rushing yards against them, but stopped Baltimore and Detroit in the other two games. The cover will be close, but I’m taking Denver.
Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers (+9.5) – My pick is Green Bay Packers
As I said last week, the Packers will be seeing a lot of double-digit point spreads this season, so jump on them while they are lower than ten. Well, this point spread is lower than ten. Aaron Rodgers will carve up the Niners, who he still remembers passed on drafting him. The Niners defense is bad, really bad. I’m taking the Packers to cover on the road.
St. Louis Rams at Arizona Cardinals (-7) – My pick is Arizona Cardinals
The Cardinals have scored a combined 95 points in their last two games. The Rams did beat Seattle in overtime in Week 1, but then laid a pair of stinkers. Their defense is stout, but I worry about their offense. The Cardinals could have scored 60+ against the Niners last week, but laid off the accelerator in the second half. Arizona is a complete team. They are even making Chris Johnson look like a professional running back. The Cardinals will cover at home.
Dallas Cowboys at New Orleans Saints (-5) – My pick is Dallas Cowboys
This game has been taken off the board at many sportsbooks. They want to find out if Drew Brees will play. The Cowboys will start Brandon Weeden once again, but they kind of figured out who they are last week against Atlanta. If they can run the ball and throw screen passes, they will be competitive. I’m taking the points.
Detroit Lions at Seattle Seahawks (-10) – My pick is Detroit Lions
Detroit has had a tough schedule so far this year. Two road games and a home game against Peyton Manning. They aren’t as good as I thought they would be, but they still are not a bad team. It will be difficult to play in Seattle after three tough losses. Seattle basically had a bye week against Chicago last week. They needed it after starting the year 0-2. They will most likely beat Detroit, since they are so good at home, but the double-digit point spread is a bit much. I’m taking the points.
*These picks are for entertainment purposes
Sweetbob’s NFL picks against the spread record in previous seasons:
Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on Twitter at @Sweetbob