Week 2 was rough on many sports bettors across the world. It’s tough to go against how you thought a team would perform so far this season. You can’t completely ditch a team, but you still need to be focus on how a team has performed so far. Week 3 is a rubber week and you can find a lot of value.
I went 8-8 last week against the spread. I missed on some early games, but redeemed myself with a few moneyline plays. I may have finished .500, but I was still in the money.
I would have never thought Philadelphia, Seattle and Indianapolis would all be winless. They could all be undervalued this week…well, two of three teams.
We pick every NFL game against the spread and throw out a few upsets in Week 3 of the 2015 NFL season.
Washington Redskins at New York Giants (-3.5) – My pick is New York Giants
Kirk Cousins captained Washington to their first victory of the year. They ran the ball nearly 40 times against St. Louis. Cousins put on his ‘game manager’ hat. I expect the same gameplan from Washington on Thursday. The Giants front seven is very good against the run. They allowed less than 80 total rushing yards in each game against Dallas and Atlanta. The Giants will get their first win of the year and cover the spread.
Philadelphia Eagles at New York Jets (-2.5) – My pick is Philadelphia Eagles
It’s still early enough that we can still use the information we all researched this offseason. The Eagles were expected to be good and the Jets were expected to be bad, really bad. I still have faith in my research. The Eagles have looked bad and the Jets have been surprisingly above average (I can argue the Colts beat themselves on Monday). I can’t pick the Jets in good faith when the Eagles are being given points. I may hit this one hard.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Houston Texans (-6.5) – My pick is Tampa Bay Buccaneers
This line seems a bit high. The Texans are 0-2 and haven’t really figured out their starting quarterback. Ryan Mallett appears to be the guy (for now), but they really miss Arian Foster. I don’t think it matters which quarterback they choose. The Bucs are a young team that is hungry. Many haven’t been on a winning team in the NFL. Jameis Winston will be tested by J.J. Watt all game. I’m taking the points.
New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers (-3.5) – My pick is Carolina Panthers
Drew Brees has an injured shoulder. It is unknown if he will miss any time or just try to play through it. Luke McCown is the backup in New Orleans. I can’t believe both McCowns are still in the NFL. Carolina impressed me last week against Houston. I’m picking the Panthers to cover the spread.
Pittsburgh Steelers at St. Louis Rams (+2) – My pick is Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers slapped the San Franciso 49ers around the field last week. They scored at will. The Rams have a much better defense, but their offense appeared to take a step backward against Washington. They don’t have a healthy backfield with Tre Mason and Todd Gurley still nursing injuries. Le’Veon Bell is back from suspension, so I’m picking the Steelers to cover.
San Diego Chargers at Minnesota Vikings (-2.5) – My pick is Minnesota Vikings
I was on the fence about this game. San Diego is historically a strong road team with Philip Rivers. The Chargers have been pretty bad against the run so far this season. Adrian Peterson looked like his old self against Detroit last week. I was bullish on the Vikings this preseason. I think they squeak out a cover against San Diego.
Atlanta Falcons at Dallas Cowboys (+2.5) – My pick is Atlanta Falcons
Tony Romo got hurt at a really bad time. The Falcons love to air it out to Julio Jones. Dallas can’t handle a shootout. The Cowboys will have to run the ball if they want to stay with Atlanta. I don’t see it happening. Dallas will free-fall without Romo. I’m taking Atlanta to cover on the road.
Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans (+3.5) – My pick is Indianapolis Colts
I’m not quite sure what’s going on internally with the Colts. There’s a lot of friction between the general manager and head coach Chuck Pagano. The offensive line looks really bad and Andrew Luck isn’t helping. The Colts need this game to correct their issues. Indy will cover on the road and look more like themselves.
Oakland Raiders at Cleveland Browns (-3.5) – My pick is Oakland Raiders
The Browns named Josh McCown the starter this weekend. Yes, even after the performance Johnny Manziel had against Tennessee. Derek Carr carried the team last week against Baltimore. I really like his future prospects. I don’t like McCown against the Raiders. Give me the points.
Jacksonville Jaguars at New England Patriots (-14) – My pick is Jacksonville Jaguars
Jacksonville faced double-digit point spreads for most of the last two seasons. They are 3-6-1 in the last ten games in which they were double-digit underdogs. They are 2-2 in their last four games in which they faced a spread of at least two touchdowns. Jacksonville didn’t look terrible in last week’s win against Miami. New England will win this game, but I don’t like the spread. I would pick the Patriots if it were a few points less.
Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens (-2.5) – My pick is Cincinnati Bengals
I love picking AFC North games. Many are predictable and the ‘under’ is a smart bet. The Bengals are 4-1 in their last five games against Baltimore. Andy Dalton looked great last week against San Diego. Tyler Eifert is making his life a lot easier. He isn’t forcing as many passes downfield to A.J. Green. That is good for the Bengals, bad for fantasy players. I’m taking the Bengals in this game.
San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals (-7) – My pick is Arizona Cardinals
I would like Arizona a lot more if the spread was a few points lower. They looked fantastic against Chicago last week, but many more teams will do the same this season. The Niners got smoked by Pittsburgh, which was not a surprise. It’s time for Arizona to get some payback for all the year’s San Francisco killed them. Carson Palmer should have a really nice game against the Niners below-average defense.
Chicago Bears at Seattle Seahawks (-15.5) – My pick is Chicago Bears
Oh man…this is large spread for a Week 3 game. Jay Cutler is currently questionable with a hamstring injury. Jimmy Clausen would get the start if he’s unable to go. Kam Chancellor ended his holdout and will be in uniform for Seattle. The odds of Seattle embarrassing Chicago is quite high, but the points is too enticing to pass up. Chicago only lost to Green Bay by eight points. Cutler was healthy then, but Green Bay is a better team than Seattle. I’m taking the points.
Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins (-3) – My pick is Buffalo Bills
Just two weeks ago, I would have picked Miami to cover. Lamar Miller is banged up and may not play. Buffalo has impressed me so far. I did not expect them to look this good with Tyrod Taylor under center. Miami has looked flat in both their games this season. I’m taking Buffalo.
Denver Broncos at Detroit Lions (+3.5) – My pick is Denver Broncos
Peyton Manning has had some of the best games of his career against Detroit. Many of those were when Detroit was the laughingstock of the league, but it’s worth noting. The Lions couldn’t get a running game going against Minnesota last week. Matthew Stafford is banged up with an injury to his chest/ribs. They would need the running game to produce if he plays. I’m taking Denver to cover on the road.
Kansas City Chiefs at Green Bay Packers (-7) – My pick is Green Bay Packers
I love Green Bay this season. They will face a lot of double-digit point spreads this season. Kansas City is a formidable opponent. They could keep the game close for most of the game. Green Bay will cover late in the game.
*These picks are for entertainment purposes
Sweetbob’s NFL picks against the spread record in previous seasons:
Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on Twitter at @Sweetbob