Sorry about getting my picks up so late in the week. I’ve been on injured-reserve the last few days with a thumb/wrist issue. I feel like a pitcher who can’t hit 100 mph on the radar gun. I hope you still enjoy my 60 mph knuckleballs.
I finished the regular season with a record of 131-114-9 with my NFL picks against the spread. I missed a couple last week, but feel good about this week’s picks.
I had a decent year betting against the spread during the 2013-14 season (133-95-10). Any year you hit nearly 60% of the NFL games against the spread is a damn good year. I fared well in the playoffs as well.
We pick every game in the 2015 Divisional Playoffs against the spread. Can Dallas make people forget about all of last week’s favorable calls?
Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots (-7) – My pick is Baltimore Ravens
If this was a regular season game, I would probably side with the Patriots. Divisional playoff game betting odds are often heavily in favor of the team that had a week of rest. We see it year after year that sometimes teams need to play to stay hot. I still think New England will pull out a win, but Baltimore is a better postseason team than a regular season team. They are a strong road team. Justin Forsett’s second-half really turned them into a different team. When Joe Flacco is efficient and doesn’t throw interceptions, the Ravens are a legit title contender.
Carolina Panthers at Seattle Seahawks (-11) – My pick is Carolina Panthers
These two teams faced each other in late-October. Seattle needed a last-minute touchdown to defeat Carolina 13-9. Seattle then went on to win eight of the next nine games. Carolina struggled after this game with four-straight losses, but then finished strong with five-straight wins. Cam Newton probably isn’t 100%, but he appears to be more himself than he was early in the year. He’s scrambling more and converting third downs with his legs more each game. Double-digit point spreads in the postseason are just too damn hard to cover. Seattle will probably win, but it will be closer than eleven points.
Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers (-6) – My pick is Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys got some home cookin’ last week in order to advance. They now have a chip on their shoulder. They must now prove they belong. It also helps that Aaron Rodgers has a slightly torn calf muscle. I assume he won’t be able to scramble as well. I’m sure he’ll try a few times, but Dallas must take advantage of this. Most sportsbooks have Dallas around a +200 moneyline play…it could be worthwhile to take a shot. As far as the spread it concerned, I’m taking the points all day.
Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos (-7) – My pick is Denver Broncos
As a life-long fan of the Indianapolis Colts, I get no joy out of them facing Peyton Manning in a ‘loser goes home’ playoff game. Also, I feel like Indy could get destroyed. These teams faced each other in Week 1 with Denver winning 31-24. Indy lost many key players to injury since. They have little run game and use short passes to Boom Herron to make up for it. If Reggie Wayne was healthy, I would consider Indy, but he’s FAR from it. He’s giving it all he’s got, but his triceps injury caused the once-reliable receiver to drop a lot of balls. Manning has blown his share of home playoff games (I have mental scars due to them). C.J. Anderson is the key to this game. I expect him to go off. The Colts are just lucky to be here at this point. I’m picking Denver to cover.
*These picks are for entertainment purposes
Sweetbob was 133-95-10 against the spread in NFL games for 2013-14 season.
Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on Twitter at @Sweetbob