I finished the regular season with a record of 131-114-9 with my NFL picks against the spread. I no longer have to pick Jets, Dolphins and Saints games (which screwed me most of the year)…so I feel pretty good about this week’s picks.
I had a decent year betting against the spread during the 2013-14 season (133-95-10). Any year you hit nearly 60% of the NFL games against the spread is a damn good year. I fared well in the playoffs as well.
We pick every 2014-15 Wild-Card Weekend playoff game against the spread. Can Dallas cover a touchdown points spread against Megatron?
Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers (-6.5) – My pick is Carolina Panthers
Arizona hasn’t looked the same since losing Drew Stanton. I was really high on Arizona a few weeks ago and thought they were getting ready to have a deep playoff run. Ryan Lindley is set to start for Arizona and they are facing Carolina at the wrong time. The Panthers are on a four-game winning streak. They are only 2-2 ATS during that span, but they had Derek Anderson for one of those losses. I trust Cam Newton more than Lindley and I have to ride the hot hand. I’m picking Carolina to cover in Saturday’s early game.
Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5) – My pick is Pittsburgh Steelers
These two teams always seem to meet in the postseason. They’ve had some memorable January battles. I was all prepared to ride Pittsburgh in the playoffs. Ben Roethlisberger and Antonio Brown are one of the most dangerous tandems in the NFL and Le’Veon Bell was running all over the league. Unfortunately, Bell hyperextended his knee last week and they had to sign Ben Tate to help out. That does factor in my decision. If they had Bell, I’d be all-in on this spread. I’m more tentative, but still think they squeak out a cover.
Cincinnati Bengals at Indianapolis Colts (-4) – My pick is Cincinnati Bengals
In mid-October, the Colts shutout the Bengals 27-0 at Lucas Oil Stadium. A lot has changed since that game. The Colts lost Ahmad Bradshaw for the season and Reggie Wayne’s triceps injury makes him a shell of himself. The Bengals offense has improved since that defeat by giving the starting job to running back Jeremy Hill. The Bengals are a much better team. It’s hard to beat a team twice in the NFL. This game could be close, so I’ll take the points.
Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys (-7) – My pick is Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys are just playing a different level right now. They’ve been winning games with ease. It’s crazy to think that five of their last seven games were road games and they won them all. Teams usually don’t survive those types of road stretches in the NFL. Dallas will get a do-over in regards to Calvin Johnson, who gained 329 receiving yards against them in their contest last season. I would normally shy away from a cover this large in the playoffs, but I’m not afraid of this one. Dallas will cover at home against Detroit.
I almost feel bad about tweeting about the Dallas Cowboys defense last year. One of my tweets ended up in the ‘Dallas Cowboys Players Read Mean Tweets‘ video they put on their website before this season. Sorry, Anthony Spencer.
*These picks are for entertainment purposes
Sweetbob was 133-95-10 against the spread in NFL games for 2013-14 season.
Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on Twitter at @Sweetbob