I finished 8-7-1 last week. I’ve been hovering around .500 for most of the season. I’ve had some nice underdog moneyline wins, but there are a few teams that I haven’t got a good feel for this season. I’ve whiffed on the Vikings, Rams and Falcons more the other teams. I now sit at 105-97-5 with my NFL picks against the spread this season.
I have no idea why Rob Gronkowski had a photoshoot with a kitten. I actually can’t explain anything he does, so it makes sense.
I had a decent year betting against the spread in the NFL last season (133-95-10). Any year you hit nearly 60% of the NFL games against the spread is a damn good year. Let’s hope my win percentage is near that this season.
We pick every NFL game against the spread and throw out a few upsets in Week 15 of the 2014 NFL season.
Arizona Cardinals at St. Louis Rams (-4.5) – My pick is Arizona Cardinals
“OMG, the Rams have outscored their opponents 76-0 in the last two games!” Slow your roll, OMG guy. They played Oakland and Washington in those games. The Rams defense is good, but they don’t deserve the high praise they are getting this week. Arizona haven’t been putting up as many points with Drew Stanton, but their defense is also worthy of praise. This game should be close. I’m taking the points.
Green Bay Packers at Buffalo Bills (+6) – My pick is Green Bay Packers
After blowing out Chicago and Philadelphia, Green Bay has been playing down to their competition. They are still riding a five game winning streak, but they have failed to cover in two of their last three games. This game should have a bigger spread. It opened at +4.5 and has been bet up. This feels like a trap game, but I’m still taking the bait. I’m picking the Packers to cover.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers (-3.5) – My pick is Carolina Panthers
Cam Newton was involved in a car accident this week and he has officially been ruled out of this weekend’s game. Derek Anderson will start in his place. Yes, the same Derek Anderson who had a 2 for 17 passing game back in 2010. I’m guessing Carolina will rely heavily on Jonathan Stewart’s legs. Tampa Bay doesn’t have a great run defense. I’m picking Carolina to cover and I predict this line will fall the closer we get to the game.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Baltimore Ravens (-14) – My pick is Baltimore Ravens
Jacksonville are 0-3-1 when on the wrong side of a double-digit point spread. I expect the Jaguars to try to run to keep Blake Bortles from making mistakes. Haloti Ngata got dinged for PED use, but even without him, Baltimore’s run defense is stout. A 14-point spread in the NFL is tough, but Baltimore should cover.
Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns (+1) – My pick is Cleveland Browns
Marvin Lewis had an eventful first few days of the week. He went on a local radio show and called Johnny Manziel a ‘midget’. I watched last week’s Colts/Browns game and if Cleveland got anything from Brian Hoyer, and I mean ANYTHING, they would have won. Cleveland named Johnny Manziel the starter and I expect a few ‘wow moments’ this weekend. The Browns are coming into this game with swagger and I think they’ll beat the Bengals outright.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Atlanta Falcons (+2.5) – My pick is Pittsburgh Steelers
I need to admit something. I have no idea how good Atlanta is at playing professional football. They are so damn up and down. I do know that Atlanta has trouble stopping really good running backs. Le’Veon Bell is a really good running back. Julio Jones will have a few crazy catches against Pittsburgh’s secondary, but I don’t see Steven Jackson contributing at all. I’m taking the Steelers to cover.
Washington Redskins at New York Giants (-7) – My pick is New York Giants
Is it too early to say the Redskins have quit on head coach Jay Gruden? They just laid a real stinker of a game against St. Louis last week. They have only scored more than 20 points four times this season…and they lost all but one of those games. I know the Giants haven’t been the model of consistency, but the Redskins have been consistently horrid. My man crush for Odell Beckham Jr. is still very much alive. I’m taking the Giants to cover a touchdown point spread.
Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots (-7.5) – My pick is New England Patriots
Miami beat New England in Week 1, but that won’t happen at Gillette Stadium. Miami’s offensive line is in shambles. Lamar Miller won’t been able to do much on the ground and Ryan Tannehill will be on his back a lot. New England will roll and cover at home.
Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts (-7) – My pick is Houston Texans
It’s a shame Jadeveon Clowney will miss this game. I was hoping to see him face off against Andrew Luck. It was reported that Clowney needs microfracture surgery on his knee and will miss nine months. The last time Houston played Indy, J.J. Watt had a crazy game. Houston could have easily won that game. Ryan Fitzpatrick fumbled late and the Colts recovered and just knelt down a few times to end the game. I think this game will have a similar result. I don’t see Indy covering a touchdown point spread. I’m taking the points.
Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs (-10) – My pick is Oakland Raiders
Oakland is 3-0 ATS when on the wrong side of a double-digit point spread this season. They have been fighting off big spreads all season. Oakland beat Kansas City just a couple weeks ago. It was seen as a trap game since KC was facing Denver the following week. Jamaal Charles isn’t 100% and I don’t trust Alex Smith to carry the entire offensive load. I’m taking the points.
Denver Broncos at San Diego Chargers (+4.5) – My pick is Denver Broncos
I know Peyton Manning doesn’t like facing the Chargers. It’s possibly the most overused phrase in the Manning narrative. Denver has been relying on C.J. Anderson. Manning hasn’t thrown for over 200 yards since Week 12. Julius Thomas is expected to be back from an ankle injury. Manning must be thrilled. I expect him to throw over 300 yards against San Diego and cover. The Broncos still have an outside shot at the #1 seed in the AFC.
New York Jets at Tennessee Titans (+2) – My pick is Tennessee Titans
Ugh. I’d rather watch ‘Peter Pan’ on NBC than watch this stinker of a game. Zach Mettenberger will miss the remainder of the season (AC joint separation) and Jake Locker will start for the Titans. He hasn’t been a complete shit-show of a quarterback this year. He started off the season strong, but wasn’t the same after going down with an injury. Percy Harvin looks like he found his place in the Jets offense. I just don’t trust Geno Smith as far as I can throw him. Wait, I don’t trust Geno as far as HE can throw ME…either way, it’s not far. I’m taking the points.
Minnesota Vikings and Detroit Lions (-8) – My pick is Minnesota Vikings
Minnesota has been winning (or staying in games) in weird ways. Blocked punts, long interception returns and kick returns. Teddy Bridgewater gives the defense a chance to win the game. He has been efficient and doesn’t take many chances. Calvin Johnson will still ‘get his’, but that extra point in the spread could be the difference. I’m taking the points.
San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks (-10) – My pick is Seattle Seahawks
Yikes, how the mighty have fallen. This game would have probably been -3 at the start of the year. Colin Kaepernick has been atrocious and the Niners just look like they’ve quit. You can’t get any lower than losing to the Raiders in your own house. I’m picking Seattle to cover the lofty point spread.
Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5) – My pick is Dallas Cowboys
I thought about this line for awhile. Mark Sanchez is still the starter in Philly after Nick Foles was ruled out for the game. The Eagles beat the Cowboys 33-10 just two weeks ago. It seems like this line should be higher. It’s really hard to beat the same team twice in the NFL. Dallas could surprise us and I’m taking a risk by taking the points.
New Orleans Saints at Chicago Bears (+3) – My pick is Chicago Bears
Brandon Marshall has been ruled out for the rest of the season after breaking ribs and injuring a lung. He hasn’t exactly been as big of a part of the offense lately and removing him from the locker room could work in their favor. New Orleans looked like garbage against Carolina last week. Drew Brees didn’t look healthy. I’m taking the Bears to bounce back after back-to-back losses.
*These picks are for entertainment purposes
Sweetbob was 133-95-10 against the spread in NFL games last season.
Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on Twitter at @Sweetbob