I started out well (2-1 on Thanksgiving), but then the late games on Sunday stuck it to me. I finished 7-9 and completely whiffed on the Raiders/Rams and Giants/Jaguars games. I now sit at 97-90-4 with my NFL picks against the spread this season.
Why the hell is Justin Bieber surrounded by New England Patriots players? Rob Gronkowski looks happy as hell (but when doesn’t he look happy as hell?).
I had a decent year betting against the spread in the NFL last season (133-95-10). Any year you hit nearly 60% of the NFL games against the spread is a damn good year. Let’s hope my win percentage is near that this season.
We pick every NFL game against the spread and throw out a few upsets in Week 14 of the 2014 NFL season.
Dallas Cowboys at Chicago Bears (+3.5) – My pick is Dallas Cowboys
I can’t get a feel for Chicago. They looked like they fixed their issues and then they just give up against Detroit. Dallas will have issues with Alshon Jeffery and Brandon Marshall, but Chicago’s porous secondary will let Dez Bryant do whatever he wants. I’m picking Dallas to cover at Soldier Field.
Indianapolis Colts at Cleveland Browns (+4.5) – My pick is Indianapolis Colts
Cleveland named Brian Hoyer the starter against the Colts. I was hoping to see what Johnny Manziel could do against the Colts non-existent pass rush, but we may have to wait another year for that. If Hoyer struggles, Manziel will come in. Andrew Luck will have some trouble against Cleveland’s great secondary, but the Colts will pull out a cover on the road. Also, can Indy just leave Trent Richardson in Cleveland? I’m sure Jim Irsay has the receipt for him somewhere in his duffle bag.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions (-10) – My pick is Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Double-digit points spreads are historically hard to cover in the NFL. There has been quite a few this year and the underdogs have done well. The Lions haven’t been able to string together two dominant games back-to-back. Also, Tampa Bay hasn’t lost by more than 10 points since losing to Baltimore on October 12th. I’m taking the points.
Baltimore Ravens at Miami Dolphins (-3) – My pick is Baltimore Ravens
Miami hasn’t been able to stop the run lately. Denver’s C.J. Anderson and the entire New York Jets running back corps ran all over Miami’s front-seven. Miami is meeting Justin Forsett at a very bad time. He has three straight 100-yard rushing games and is averaging 5.6 yards per carry on the season. He is on his fourth different team in four years. It looks like he finally found a home. I’m taking the points.
Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars (+6) – My pick is Houston Texans
I really can’t explain how Jacksonville was able to beat the Giants last week. It was sloppy as hell. Houston’s domination of Tennessee was the exact opposite of sloppy. Ryan Fitzpatrick just carved up his old team with six touchdown passes. I don’t see Fitz touching that mark this week, but he’ll have another good one. I’m picking Houston to cover on the road.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5) – My pick is Pittsburgh Steelers
I’m picking a lot of road dogs this week. Big Ben lost in Cleveland this year and I don’t see him getting shut out of winning in Ohio. Cincinnati has a three-game outright winning streak headed into this game. Pittsburgh has lost their last three games against the spread. I like Pittsburgh’s offense against Cincinnati’s defense. Cincinnati might squeak out a win, but that half-point means a lot. I’m taking the points.
St. Louis Rams at Washington Redskins (+3) – My pick is Washington Redskins
I whiffed HARD on the Rams last week. They definitely smoked Oakland, but the Rams are a bad road team. Washington lost to the Colts by 22 points, but Colt McCoy looked pretty damn good. He used Jordan Reed and Desean Jackson quite a bit. The Rams are a little overvalued this week after coming off a blowout win. I’m taking the points.
New York Giants at Tennessee Titans (+1.5) – My pick is New York Giants
Yuck. I’m glad I don’t live in either of these television markets. The Giants should probably be .500, but they just gave away a few games (i.e. Jacksonville). Odell Beckham Jr. is a special talent and Eli Manning better utilize him as much as possible. The Titans haven’t been able to stop the run this year, so maybe New York can get Rashad Jennings or Andre Williams going. I’m picking New York to cover in Tennessee.
New York Jets at Minnesota Vikings (-6) – My pick is Minnesota Vikings
I’d rather watch Rex Ryan get a Brazilian bikini wax than watch the New York Jets play football. It’s Week 14 and the Jets just found out a few weeks ago that they should probably run the ball…since they don’t have a professional quarterback on their roster. I’m taking the Vikings to cover at home.
Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints (-10) – My pick is New Orleans Saints
What the hell happened to the Carolina Panthers? Do they miss Greg Hardy THIS much? Cam Newton isn’t healthy and just looks bad out there. He’s been trying to hit Kelvin Benjamin, but defenses are double-teaming the big rookie target. Carolina hasn’t scored more than 21 points in a game since October 12th. New Orleans knows the NFC South is their division to take. I’m picking New Orleans to cover in the Superdome.
Kansas City Chiefs at Arizona Cardinals (-1) – My pick is Kansas City Chiefs
I have a lot of respect for what Drew Stanton has done filling in for Carson Palmer. Unfortunately, he has been without Larry Fitzgerald and they have lost both games. Fitzgerald is questionable with a Grade 2 MCL sprain and it doesn’t look like he’ll be active. Andre Ellington and Jamaal Charles aren’t expected to play either. I like Knile Davis a lot more than Arizona’s backup Marion Grice. KC is just a tough matchup for Arizona. I’m taking Kansas City to win outright.
Buffalo Bills at Denver Broncos (-10) – My pick is Denver Broncos
I wrote earlier about double-digit spreads being hard to cover this season…and I just picked two double-digit spreads back-to-back. I just think C.J. Anderson adds so much to Denver’s offense. They were missing someone to fill the role Knowshon Moreno had last season. Peyton Manning doesn’t have to throw for 400+ yards to win games. I’m picking Denver to cover at Mile High.
San Francisco 49ers at Oakland Raiders (+9) – My pick is San Francisco 49ers
As much as I don’t like San Francisco much right now, I just can’t pick a Latavius Murray-less Oakland team.
Seattle Seahawks at Philadelphia Eagles (-1) – My pick is Philadelphia Eagles
I’m quite curious what kind of defensive gameplan Pete Carroll will throw at Mark Sanchez. He’s not a bad quarterback when you have a running game. LeSean McCoy has back-to-back 100+ yards rushing games. It will be difficult to hit that mark against Seattle, but he needs to if they want to win.
New England Patriots at San Diego Chargers (+4) – My pick is New England Patriots
Tom Brady had a rough game against Green Bay. It wasn’t a blowout or anything, but Brady just went crazy on the sideline all game. San Diego isn’t on the same level as Green Bay and I like the point spread. I think they’ll easily cover four points.
Atlanta Falcons at Green Bay Packers (-12.5) – My pick is Atlanta Falcons
Vegas knows people really like Green Bay right now. If this line was ten points, I’d probably pick the Packers. Atlanta hasn’t been horrible lately. They haven’t been beaten by over 12 points since October 19th. People have been staying away from them, but this feels like a good time to come back to Atlanta. I’m taking the points.
*These picks are for entertainment purposes
Sweetbob was 133-95-10 against the spread in NFL games last season.
Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on Twitter at @Sweetbob