It might be time to jump off the bandwagon of some teams you’ve been riding this season. Also, keep an eye on the injury report. There are some key players currently questionable.
I had a decent year betting against the spread in the NFL last season (133-95-10). Any year you hit nearly 60% of the NFL games against the spread is a damn good year. Let’s hope my win percentage is near that this season.
We pick every NFL game against the spread and throw out a few upsets in Week 9 of the 2014 NFL season.
New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers (+3) – My pick is Carolina Panthers
New Orleans had a rough start to the season, but shouldn’t we have expected it? Just like Seattle, they have extreme home/road splits. They aren’t the same team away from the Superdome. Carolina shows up for games like these. DeAngelo Williams is expected to play, which is a huge plus for the struggling Carolina rushing attack. Cam Newton needs a decent run game to set up the play action. I’ll take the points on Thursday night.
San Diego Chargers at Miami Dolphins (-1) – My pick is Miami Dolphins
I got on the San Diego bandwagon a little late. They are 0-3 ATS in their last three games. The Chargers would probably win straight up on a neutral field, but I don’t trust them on the East Coast. The Dolphins defensive line are making opposing quarterbacks afraid. Philip Rivers isn’t easy to rattle, but Miami will make him rush his passes all day. I’m picking Miami to cover.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals (-11.5) – My pick is Cincinnati Bengals
I’ve been stuck on this line for awhile. I always give Jacksonville the benefit of the doubt when they are faced with a double-digit point spread. They aren’t covered as much as you think in the NFL. The Bengals are struggling without A.J. Green and Marvin Jones. They are 1-2-1 in their last four games (1-3 ATS during that span). I want to pick the Jaguars, but Blake Bortles will probably be without tackle Luke Joeckel. I know Denard Robinson has been a nice surprise at running back, but Bortles will be pressured a lot in this game. I don’t think Jacksonville will score many points at all. I’m picking Cincy to cover.
Washington Redskins at Minnesota Vikings (pk) – My pick is Washington Redskins
It appears RG3 will start against Minnesota on Sunday. I’m sad the Colt McCoy Show only lasted one Sunday, but maybe it’s best for his career. He went out on a high note. Neither of these teams are going anywhere, so this is the perfect team to throw at RG3 to cut his teeth. I don’t predict he’ll have a huge game, but I’m confident enough to pick them to win outright on the road.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Cleveland Browns (-7) – My pick is Tampa Bay Bucs
Cleveland had a 6.5-point spread to cover last week and they pulled that off late. Tampa is a much better road team. The last two road games were against Pittsburgh (they won by a field goal) and New Orleans (they lost in overtime). The Bucs are 1-6, but all but two of their games have been withing a touchdown. They are also better off with Mike Glennon at quarterback. Cleveland might still win the game, but I’m taking the points.
Arizona Cardinals at Dallas Cowboys (-3) – My pick is Arizona Cardinals
Arizona and Dallas have both been kind to sports bettors. Arizona (5-2 ATS) are the surprise leaders in the NFC West and Dallas (5-3 ATS) are just a surprise in every aspect. The Cardinals passing attack is winning games for them. Larry Fitzgerald, Michael Floyd and rookie John Brown are nice targets for Carson Palmer. Tony Romo isn’t 100% after suffering a back contusion. If he’s not effective, Cardinals will stack eight in the box against DeMarco Murray. I’m picking Arizona to win on the road.
New York Jets at Kansas City Chiefs (-10) – My pick is Kansas City Chiefs
Am I really picking a second double-digit point spread? Yes. I watched the Jets play the last few weeks. I want nothing to do with them. Arrowhead will devour Michael Vick.
Philadelphia Eagles at Houston Texans (+2.5) – My pick is Philadelphia Eagles
I like Houston’s defense, but I don’t trust Ryan Fitzpatrick against the Eagles. The Texans’ offensive line hasn’t done well in pass protection. The Titans sacked him five times and so did the Colts, who have zero healthy pass rushers. Arian Foster and Alfred Blue aren’t enough for Houston in this game. I’m picking Philly to cover.
St. Louis Rams at San Francisco 49ers (-10) – My pick is San Francisco 49ers
Am I really picking three double-digit point spreads?! Yes. St. Louis has needed trick plays to stay competitive in games. The Rams’s backfield is a mess right now. Jeff Fisher needs to figure out who he’s comfortable with back there. Tre Mason had a nice game against Seattle, but Zac Stacy and Benny Cunningham still get carries. The Niners are currently undervalued since they are coming off a bad loss at Denver. This line should be a few points higher. I’m picking San Francisco to cover.
Oakland Raiders at Seattle Seahawks (-15) – My pick is Oakland Raiders
Am I really picking four double-digit point spreads? Hell no! Seattle’s offense isn’t clicking and Oakland’s defense isn’t horrible. Seattle will win the game, but fifteen points is just a few points too high.
Denver Broncos at New England Patriots (+3.5) – My pick is New England Patriots
As a life-long Colts fans, I’ve seen the ‘Peyton Manning in Giltette Stadium’ scenario play out far too many times. It usually doesn’t end well. New England spanked Chicago and I have a feeling they have another 40+ point effort in their immediate future. Give me the home team. I’m taking the points.
Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers (+1) – My pick is Pittsburgh Steelers
Baltimore beat Pittsburgh 26-6 in Week 2, but the Steelers are playing better now. LeVeon Bell has found his place in the offense. Baltimore is becoming a predictable offense. Justin Forsett will have trouble running the ball. I’m picking Pittsburgh to win and cover.
Indianapolis Colts at New York Giants (+3.5) – My pick is Indianapolis Colts
The Colts are a little banged up, but nearly came back last week against Pittsburgh. They were down big at the half, but this team has a lot of fight in them. The Giants are coming off a bye, but I don’t think a week was long enough to fix their issues. The loss of Victor Cruz is too much to overcome. I’m taking the Colts to cover on the road on Monday Night Football.
*These picks are for entertainment purposes
Sweetbob was 133-95-10 against the spread in NFL games last season.
Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on Twitter at @Sweetbob