I might have went 7-8 last week, but I did call a Jacksonville Jaguars moneyline play, so if you played my picks, you still easily had a positive cash week. I am now 54-50-1 against the spread on the season.
We are starting to realize which teams were overrated in preseason and which teams that made all the ‘experts’ looks stupid (I’m looking at you, Dallas).
Colt McCoy is starting for Washington this week. I hope he does well, so every sports blogger has the opportunity to un-retire old pictures Colt McCoy’s girlfriend.
I had a decent year betting against the spread in the NFL last season (133-95-10). Any year you hit nearly 60% of the NFL games against the spread is a damn good year. I hope to keep it going in 2014.
We pick every NFL game against the spread and throw out a few upsets in Week 8 of the 2014 NFL season.
San Diego Chargers at Denver Broncos (-8) – My pick is San Diego Chargers
As a life-long Colts fan, I am well-versed in Peyton Manning’s poor history against San Diego. He had some of his worst games against the Chargers. Fortunately for Manning, Antonio Cromartie is no longer on the team. He still lost to San Diego at home last year. He only threw for 289 yards and two touchdowns. Those are great numbers for 95% of the league, but considering the crazy year he had last season, those were well below average. San Diego has the blueprint to beat Peyton. You run the ball nonstop to drain the clock. Branden Oliver will be busy on Thursday night.
Detroit Lions at Atlanta Falcons (+4) – My pick is Detroit Lions
What the hell is going on with the Falcons? I predicted there would be a ‘Hard Knocks bubble’ in betting lines, but they have just been bad. Their offensive line is broken and Matt Ryan doesn’t have much time. They also miss Tony Gonzalez like crazy. Levine Toilolo is a nice toy for Ryan, but he’s nowhere near ready for the kind of workload they need from the tight end right now. Detroit is 5-2 (4-3 ATS) and have shown they can win on the road. Calvin Johnson is questionable and all signs point to him sitting this one out. I still like Detroit’s odds of a cover.
Miami Dolphins at Jacksonville Jaguars (+6) – My pick is Miami Dolphins
I wasn’t impressed with Miami until I saw their talent in the Bears game. I know a lot of what happened to the Bears was due to Jay Cutler’s inaccuracy, but Cameron Wake caused a lot of that. Blake Bortles threw three interceptions against the Browns last week. The Jags still ended up winning that game, but he can’t do that against Miami and survive. Ryan Tannehill might not be as efficient as he was against the Bears (their secondary is horrible), but as long as he doesn’t turn the ball over, they should easily beat Jacksonville by a touchdown.
Chicago Bears at New England Patriots (-6) – My pick is New England Patriots
Bill Belichick loves to gameplan to take away the best offensive weapon. Darrelle Revis will be on Brandon Marshall, but will Alshon Jeffrey to show up? Marshall called Cutler out after last week’s game. He will do what he does best, keep throwing the ball to his super tall receivers and feed Matt Forte the rock. I just don’t think that will work this week. The Bears are freefalling…I want no part of that ride.
Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals (-1) – My pick is Baltimore Ravens
Hmmm…this line seems a bit too good to be true. Cincinnati did beat Baltimore by a touchdown in Week 1, but A.J. Green is questionable for this game. He had a few unbelievable catches in that game. Baltimore has four wins this season by 20+ points. They are functioning great on offense and defense. I’m picking a Baltimore moneyline play.
Buffalo Bills at New York Jets (-3) – My pick is New York Jets
Yes, you read that correctly. The New York Jets are FAVORED by three points over the Bills. Percy Harvin is expected to play, but I don’t think he’ll be much of a factor. Kyle Orton has won two games for Buffalo, but only had the lead for a few seconds, combined. The Jets could easily be 5-2 if one play went differently in the fourth quarter in each game. Unfortunately, they are 1-6 (1-5-1 ATS), but could easily beat Buffalo. Vegas wants you to pick the Bills, but I’m not biting.
St. Louis Rams at Kansas City Chiefs (-7) – My pick is St. Louis Rams
I’m a bit conflicted with this game. I want St. Louis to do well, because I actually think they are fun to watch. On the other hand, Kansas City is difficult at Arrowhead. The Rams have only had two games that was decided by more than six points. They keep games close and get ballsy with trick plays. The Chiefs may win, but a touchdown is too high. I’ll take the points.
Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans (+2.5) – My pick is Houston Texans
Houston is realizing they made a poor decision by making Ryan Fitzpatrick their starter. It’s too early to make a change, since they got Ryan Mallett in a trade just before Week 1. He hasn’t had enough reps. Fitzpatrick may not be good enough to beat elite teams, but he is good enough to beat his old team, Tennessee. The Titans have only twice scored more than 17 points this season. Houston should cover this spread with ease.
Seattle Seahawks at Carolina Panthers (+5.5) – My pick is Seattle Seahawks
Let’s cool our jets with the whole “Seattle’s defense is figured out” nonsense. Seattle isn’t a great road team, but from what I’ve seen from Carolina this year, the Seahawks will be fine on Sunday. The line will be close, but a six-point win is doable for Seattle.
Minnesota Vikings at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3) – My pick is Minnesota Vikings
I will not be watching this game. I am a little curious to see how Teddy Bridgewater will do, but this is the worst early game on Sunday. Jerick McKinnon has overtaken Matt Asiata as the starting running back. He’s a little guy who is also a talented receiver. I think Minnesota squeaks by Tampa, who isn’t as bad as their record indicates.
Philadelphia Eagles at Arizona Cardinals (-2.5) – My pick is Philadelphia Eagles
I went back and forth with my pick for this game. Both teams are 5-1 and are 4-2 ATS. They both faced the Redskins and Giants, but nothing in those games really swayed my pick. If they were to play on a neutral field ten times, Philly would win six or seven of those games. They are coming off a bye and have fresher legs. That is the main reason why I’m picking the Eagles.
Indianapolis Colts at Pittsburgh Steelers (+3.5) – My pick is Indianapolis Colts
As I stated earlier, I’m a life-long Colts fan. You would think I should be a homer and pick them week after week. Well, it’s more the opposite. I often go into a game with a pessimistic outlook. I have actually picked them often this year and it has paid off. They are 6-1 ATS and are currently riding a five-game winning streak. Big Ben had the Colts number early in his career, but he has yet to face Andrew Luck. The Colts will go into Heinz Field and win by a touchdown.
Oakland Raiders at Cleveland Browns (-7) – My pick is Cleveland Browns
I predicted the Jaguars to win outright against the Browns because of their next two games are against Oakland and Tampa Bay. It was a clear letdown game. They were high on their horse after beating Pittsburgh by three touchdowns. I doubt the Browns had a fun week preparing for Oakland. The Raiders defense has a lot of veterans who can disrupt struggling quarterbacks. The Browns will win the game, but could be close to the betting line. I’m rolling the dice with Cleveland
Green Bay Packers at New Orleans Saints (-1) – My pick is Green Bay Packers
I don’t know what is going on with New Orleans this year and I doubt they fix their issues before facing Green Bay. The Packers are an excellent October team and are proving it once again this year. Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees will both have crazy games, but Green Bay will edge the Saints late.
Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys (-10) – My pick is Dallas Cowboys
Are you ready for the Colt McCoy Era in Washington?! Yeah, I didn’t think so. I watched a lot of McCoy on the Browns (I lived in Columbus at the time). I was not impressed at all. Dallas is on fire and even though their secondary still has moments of ‘we don’t know what we’re doing out here’, McCoy won’t be able to capitalize on those moments. I can’t remember the last time I saw Dallas favored by double-digits, but I’m rolling the dice.
*These picks are for entertainment purposes
Sweetbob was 133-95-10 against the spread in NFL games last season.
Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on Twitter at @Sweetbob