We went 9-6 last week and are now 47-42-1 against the spread on the season.
It’s time to zig and zag in the NFL. If you’ve been riding a team so far this season, it could be time to jump off before things get ugly.
I had a decent year betting against the spread in the NFL last season (133-95-10). Any year you hit nearly 60% of the NFL games against the spread is a damn good year. I hope to keep it going in 2014.
We pick every NFL game against the spread and throw out a few upsets in Week 7 of the 2014 NFL season.
New York Jets at New England Patriots (-10) – My pick is New York Jets
The Jets impressed me last week…even though Geno Smith threw a bad interception late in the game that cost the Jets a win against the spread. Breathe. They were down against Denver, but didn’t give up. I liked the fight that I saw in them. The Jets always come to play when they face the Patriots. I don’t see New England covering a double-digit point spread on a short week.
Miami Dolphins at Chicago Bears (-3.5) – My pick is Chicago Bears
Miami was dealt a huge blow this week. They found out Knowshon Moreno tore his ACL. This means Miami is basically a one-dimensional team for the remainder of the year. Chicago is better than their record. They’ve played possibly the hardest schedule in the NFL thus far. Jay Cutler may take a few sacks from Cameron Wake, but Chicago’s receiving corps trumps Miami’s secondary. Give me the Bears to cover.
New Orleans Saints at Detroit Lions (-3) – My pick is Detroit Lions
New Orleans is a weird road team, man. They seem to only play at full-speed when they are on their home turf. I want to emphasize ‘turf’ because I mean their actual home playing surface. They can travel to Atlanta, another dome team, and still struggle. Detroit will probably still be without Calvin Johnson, but I have no faith in New Orleans on the road. Also, Jimmy Graham may not suit up (he’s still dealing with a shoulder injury).
Minnesota Vikings at Buffalo Bills (-6) – My pick is Minnesota Vikings
I try not to bet on games that I wouldn’t want to watch. I don’t like either team’s offense and think both will struggle on Sunday. I’m not a huge fan of Minnesota, but I’m taking the points. Sorry, Kyle Orton.
Carolina Panthers at Green Bay Packers (-7) – My pick is Green Bay Packers
I don’t think anyone has a ‘feel’ for Carolina yet. Cam Newton’s ribs were busted up this preseason and he has only recently started to run more. It’s also out of necessity, since both DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart are out with injuries. The major injury I’m focused on is Kelvin Benjamin. He’s currently questionable with a concussion. If he doesn’t play, I’m hitting the Packers hard at -7.
Atlanta Falcons at Baltimore Ravens (-7) – My pick is Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta’s another team that people are having trouble understanding. We all thought last season’s poor record was just due to being unlucky. The injuries they’ve suffered on the offensive line hasn’t made this season very easy either. If Marques Colston didn’t fumble the ball in overtime in Week 1, Atlanta could be 1-5 at the moment. This line is a few points higher than I’d like it to be. I’m taking the points.
Tennessee Titans at Washington Redskins (-5.5) – My pick is Washington Redskins
Ugh. I do not want to watch this train wreck. NFC East teams have looked really good against AFC South teams so far this season. I’m going with that trend. If Jake Locker plays (it doesn’t look likely), I’d put a lot of thought in picking the Titans.
Seattle Seahawks at St. Louis Rams (+7.5) – My pick is Seattle Seahawks
I thought about this game for a long time this morning. It all adds up like a possible Rams play, but they’ve been having trouble rushing the ball. If they had a running game, maybe I’d pick the Rams. I don’t like the odds of Austin Davis surviving this game with less than a pair of interceptions.
Cincinnati Bengals at Indianapolis Colts (-3.5) – My pick is Indianapolis Colts
The Bengals will be without A.J. Green and Marvin Jones. Indianapolis has issues covering big receivers, so Vontae Davis dodged a bullet. Cincy isn’t the same team with Green on the sideline in street clothes. I love the Colts on Sunday to cover.
Cleveland Browns at Jacksonville Jaguars (+6) – My pick is Jacksonville Jaguars
Oh yes. I am going there. I’m picking Jacksonville to keep this game close and possibly even winning their first game of the season. The Browns are going into this game relaxed. Their next three games are at Jacksonville and then home games against Oakland and Tampa Bay. The Jags will catch the Browns sleeping.
Kansas City Chiefs at San Diego Chargers (-4) – My pick is San Diego Chargers
This line opened up at -5.5 and has already been bet down. I actually love San Diego in this game. They are 5-1 ATS so far, so many the sharps are jumping off the bandwagon. I know they are dealing with a bunch of injuries (especially at running back), but I feel Rivers has at least one more cover in his bag of goodies. The Chargers swept last seasons meetings…and San Diego is much better this year.
New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys (-6.5) – My pick is New York Giants
I really want to have a reason to pick the Giants. Teams have historically been horrible the week after winning in Seattle. It hasn’t happened often, so most of the data is pre-Pete Carroll, so it’s borderline useful. I want to pick New York, but with Victor Cruz’s injury, it’s hard. I have to go with my gut on this one. Dallas will fall on their face a week after shocking the world.
Arizona Cardinals at Oakland Raiders (+4) – My pick is Arizona Cardinals
This is a big ‘eff you’ game for Carson Palmer. He couldn’t have enjoyed his time in Oakland. He will enjoy this win and cover.
San Francisco 49ers at Denver Broncos (-6.5) – My pick is Denver Broncos
Manning only needs a couple touchdowns to eclipse Brett Favre as the NFL’s all-time leading touchdown passer. Denver will give him every opportunity to do it in Primetime. I love Denver and think they’ll cover.
Houston Texans at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5) – My pick is Houston Texans
The Texans really did their best to attempt a comeback against the Colts. Let me rephrase that…J.J. Watt did his best to attempt a comeback against the Colts. Okay, that’s much better. They fell short against Indy, but they are better equipped to handle Pittsburgh. They match up well. Houston is a younger version of Pittsburgh’s defense. This game will be close. I’ll take the point.
*These picks are for entertainment purposes
Sweetbob was 133-95-10 against the spread in NFL games last season.
Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on Twitter at @Sweetbob