Vegas is starting to key into these teams. Yes, a few point spreads last week weren’t even close, but a handful were won or lost by a single point. We went 7-7-1 and are now 38-36-1 against the spread on the season.
It’s time to zig and zag in the NFL. If you’ve been riding a team so far this season, it could be time to jump off before things get ugly. It might be time to…*gulp* bet on the Jaguars. OH, THE HORROR!
I had a decent year betting against the spread in the NFL last season (133-95-10). Any year you hit nearly 60% of the NFL games against the spread is a damn good year. I hope to keep it going in 2014.
We pick every NFL game against the spread and throw out a few upsets in Week 6 of the 2014 NFL season.
Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans (+3) – My pick is Indianapolis Colts
The Colts have historically played pretty well on Thursday. They are 9-1-1 ATS in their last eleven Thursday night games. Also, they have a knack for defeating Houston. If the Texans had Jadeveon Clowney, maybe I’d think a little harder about my pick. Andrew Luck will go into Houston and cover.
Carolina Panthers at Cincinnati Bengals (-7) – My pick is Carolina Panthers
Cincinnati star wide receiver A.J. Green injured his toe at practice and will be out on Sunday. I don’t like Cincinnati this week. Carolina was a playoff team last year and a touchdown point-spread is a bit ridiculous.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns (-1.5) – My pick is Pittsburgh Steelers
Ben Roethlisberger loves playing in Ohio. He has beaten up on Ohio teams for his entire career. The Browns are a nice story and they have shown heart by coming back against Tennessee & in Pittsburgh the first week of the season. The Steelers will not take them lightly this time. I’m taking the Steelers moneyline.
New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills (+3) – My pick is New England Patriots
Let’s pump the brakes on the Bills. They beat a Lions team that didn’t have Calvin Johnson for 90% of the game. They also have Mr. Neck Beard (Kyle Orton) at quarterback. The Patriots beat Cincinnati easily last week and I take much more stock in that win. The Patriots will cover in Buffalo.
Green Bay Packers at Miami Dolphins (+3.5) – My pick is Green Bay Packers
I want nothing to do with Miami this season. I will not lay a dime on them unless the line has a lot of value attached. I see zero value and think Green Bay lays a beating on them. Green Bay has historically been a great October team. They start slow and make up for it this month.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans (-5) – My pick is Tennessee Titans
Keep a close eye on the injury report for this game. The Titans haven’t made a call on Jake Locker. If he plays, I’d hit this game hard. If Charlie Whitehurst starts in his place, I’d stay away from this game. The Jags tend to win a few games like this every year.
Baltimore Ravens at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3.5) – My pick is Baltimore Ravens
Tampa is much better with Mike Glennon at the helm, but the rest of the cast isn’t quite up to par. Baltimore is a good team and played the Colts neck and neck the entire game. They rarely lose back-to-back road games. It’s a rare skill John Harbaugh has perfected.
Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings (+2) – My pick is Detroit Lions
We are supposed to take the bait because Calvin Johnson may not play this game. I just can’t do it. I don’t think Matt Asiata can do anything against Detroit’s line. Teddy Bridgewater will become a sitting duck.
Denver Broncos at New York Jets (+10) – My pick is New York Jets
Some of Peyton Manning’s worst games of his career came in East Rutherford, NJ. The Jets have had his number in the past. The Jets are becoming a bit desperate, so they will throw the book at Peyton. If the Jets can beat Denver on Sunday, their season could be saved. I’m not saying the Jets will win, but they should keep it within double-digits.
San Diego Chargers at Oakland Raiders (+7.5) – My pick is San Diego Chargers
When a team fires their coach in-season, the next game will be an extreme. You either have a team that totally quits (because they didn’t agree with the decision) or they turn things around in a heartbeat (because the team all agreed that the previous coach needed to go). Well, I don’t think Dennis Allen was hated nor did he deserve to go. Tony Sparano is the new head coach and if there’s one coach in the NFL that screams ‘we quit’, it’s Tony Sparano.
Chicago Bears at Atlanta Falcons (-3) – My pick is Chicago Bears
It’s amazing that one of these teams will be 2-4 after Sunday. I actually liked both teams going into the season, but they’ve both suffered at least one bad loss. Chicago held their own in Carolina last week, but couldn’t move the ball on the ground. Carolina’s run defense is no joke. Atlanta hasn’t looked the same since blowing out Tampa a few Thursdays ago. Give me Chicago to bounce back after giving the game away last week.
Dallas Cowboys at Seattle Seahawks (-8) – My pick is Seattle Seahawks
This line is high because Vegas has already accounted for all the interceptions Seattle’s secondary will intercept. Tony Romo will definitely be tested. He’s lived up to the last few, but this could be painful to watch. I’m picking Seattle, but the line could be close.
Washington Redskins at Arizona Cardinals (-3.5) – My pick is Washington Redskins
Arizona hasn’t decided which quarterback will start on Sunday. It could either be Carson Palmer, Drew Stanton or Logan Thomas. If Palmer plays, I’d probably side with Arizona, but this game might be one I stay away from. For the purposes of this post, at the moment, I’m going with Washington.
New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5) – My pick is Philadelphia Eagles
I had to think about this for awhile. Eli is masterful on Sunday Night Football or it is a parade of ‘Manning Face‘ images. I’m betting on Eli throwing at least two interceptions and that will be the difference in this game.
San Francisco 49ers at St. Louis Rams (+3.5) – My pick is San Francisco 49ers
I’m a fan of betting on the 49ers when they play in Primetime. They turn up for late games and they are usually money. I also think this line should be closer to a touchdown. The Niners will easily cover this one.
*These picks are for entertainment purposes
Sweetbob was 133-95-10 against the spread in NFL games last season.
Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on Twitter at @Sweetbob