Last week’s slate of games was full of nailbiters and complete surprises (see: East Carolina). I ended up going 9-11 putting my season record at 18-21-1. I’ve taken some risks so far, but I am putting the reset button my betting strategy this season. I haven’t put much emphasis on home teams and I had to re-evaluate the Big Ten. I valued them higher than I should have the first few weeks.
I went heavy on home teams and I feel great about my betting picks against the spread for Week 4 of the 2014 college football season.
We were 134-79-8 against the spread betting on college football games last season. We hope to keep it going and help you guys out again this season.
We pick against the spread for all the big college football games on Saturday (September 20th, 2014), and picked some smaller conference games as well. Enjoy!
Florida at Alabama (-15) – My pick is Alabama
I watched the entire Florida/Kentucky game last week and I came away unimpressed with Florida. Kentucky is better than last season, but they were favored by four touchdowns and it took three overtimes to beat the Wildcats. We keep waiting for Jeff Driskel to become something great, but I think he’s a poor man’s Ron Powlus. Alabama will embarrass the Gators.
Georgia Tech at Virginia Tech (-8.5) – My pick is Virginia Tech
Virginia Tech failed after defeating Ohio State in a marquee game. They lost to East Carolina and shocked everybody. ECU’s quarterback Shane Carden single-handedly beat the Hokies. Georgia Tech keeps the ball on the ground and Va Tech defends the run well. Georgia Tech have zero passing game, so I’m picking Virginia Tech to bounce back and cover at home.
Miamia at Nebraska (-7) – My pick is Nebraska
Nebraska was a play away from getting beat by McNeese State a few weeks ago, but redeemed themselves with a blowout win on the road against Fresno State. Miami played well against Arkansas State and Florida A&M, but lost in their only true test against Louisville. I believe in Nebraska are a legit Big Ten title contender, since the rest of the Conference looks like a fresh turd.
Oklahoma at West Virginia (+8) – My pick is West Virginia
WVU has overachieved so far and I’m hitting home teams hard this week. Oklahoma should have smoked Tennessee last week, but they stayed within a few scores for most of the game. The Mountaineers offense can put points up in a hurry and I’m not sure if Trevor Knight and OU can match them if they get into a shoot-out. Alabama is better than Oklahoma and WVU played them well in Tuscaloosa. I love the ‘Neers on Saturday.
Mississippi State at LSU (-10) – My pick is LSU
Is Mississippi State for real? I think they are better than we thought, but not good enough to hang with LSU in the Bayou. LSU has went 9 straight quarters without giving up a single point. I don’t see this ending well for the Bulldogs.
Northern Illinois at Arkansas (-14) – My pick is Arkansas
I picked Arkansas over Texas Tech last week and they pulled through. I was beyond confident, since Arkansas’s rushing attack is top-tier and Tech’s defensive line leaves a lot to the imagination. Northern Illinois’ run defense is better than Tech’s, but I have a man crush on Arkansas running backs Alex Collins (8.2 ypc) and Jonathan Williams (9.8 ypc). The MAC has been on fire so far, but I love the Razorbacks this season.
Iowa at Pittsburgh (-7) – My pick is Pittsburgh
Iowa has looked piss-poor so far this season. They barely beat Northern Iowa and Ball State and then lost to Iowa State. They’ve relied on Jake Rudock’s arm and their defense to keep them in games. The Hawkeyes have yet to face a running back like Pitt’s James Conner. He’s 6’2 and weighs in at 250 pounds. He’s averaging 6.7 yards per carry and over 180 yards per game. Also, opposing quarterbacks have completed less than 50% of their passes against Pitt’s defense. I like the Panthers this weekend and the Big Ten will look bad once again.
Indiana at Missouri (-14) – My pick is Missouri
I did not expect Mizzou to look this good after losing so many studs to the NFL Draft. I also didn’t expect IU to give a game away to Bowling Green. Maty Mauk is already making Missouri fans forget about James Franklin. He takes care of the football and makes a throw every game that makes your mouth drop. The Hoosiers looked like a program on the rise, but QB Nate Sudfeld hasn’t played well at all. They’ve had to solely rely on junior running back Tevin Coleman, but IU needs Sudfeld’s arm to compete with Mizzou. I’m picking the Tigers to cover the spread and blow out the Hoosiers.
South Carolina at Vanderbilt (+22.5) – My pick is South Carolina
Vanderbilt looks lost this season. South Carolina is coming off a big win against Georgia and haven’t had a chance to blow anyone out this year. They have played possibly the toughest schedule so far. Give me the Gamecocks to smoke the Commodores on Saturday.
Florida Atlantic at Wyoming (-4) – My pick is Florida Atlantic
This is where we pick an under-the-radar smaller conference game. I’ve always done well betting on Wyoming. Their lines never get bet up and you can always find value when they are facing a ranked opponent. Well, FAU is far from a ranked opponent. Wyoming stopped Oregon from getting a cover against them last week and Vegas overvalued them this weekend. Florida Atlantic has some speed and has the ability to make big plays.
Utah at Michigan (-4.5) – My pick is Michigan
New Mexico at New Mexico State (+3.5) – My pick is New Mexico State
Clemson at Florida State (-16) – My pick is Clemson
California at Arizona (-9.5) – My pick is California
Oregon at Washington State (+24.5) – My pick is Oregon
UNLV at Houston (-21) – My pick is Houston
Maryland at Syracuse (+1) – My pick is Maryland
North Carolina at East Carolina (-2.5) – My pick is East Carolina
Virginia at BYU (-14) – My pick is BYU
Texas A&M at SMU (+35) – My pick is Texas A&M
*These picks are for entertainment purposes
Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on Twitter at @Sweetbob.