I had to wait until the last minute to post my NFL picks against the spread. There was so many things that were unknown earlier this week. We know know the status of Tony Romo, Aaron Rodgers, Eddie Lacy and even Jon Kitna…yep, THAT Jon Kitna.
I have a 124-88-10 record against the spread so far this season.
There are five games with double-digit point spreads and playoff spots and seeds are still up for grabs. This is an odd Week 17, since we have two ‘loser leaves town’ games.
I hate betting in Week 17, but it’s the last shot at betting a full slate of games. There is no such thing as a ‘sure thing’ this week, weird shit will happen, my friends.
We pick every NFL game against the spread and throw out a few upsets in Week 17 of the NFL season.
Washington Redskins at New York Giants (-3.5) - My pick is New York Giants
The Giants beat Washington by a touchdown earlier this month and the situation has gotten worse in Washington. I do think Kirk Cousins makes this game close, but I feel a 28-24 will occur.
Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals (-6.5) - My pick is Baltimore Ravens
I’ve missed on both teams many times this season. The Bengals are consistent at home, but Baltimore did beat them in overtime last month. I think a touchdown spread is too large for Cincy to cover.
Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers (-7) - My pick is Pittsburgh Steelers
The Browns have checked out. The Steelers are 5-2 in the second half (after starting out 2-6). Their two recent losses have came within a touchdown. There’s still an outside chance the Steelers can make the postseason. It’s a very slim chance. Pittsburgh loves beating up Cleveland, so give me the Steelers to cover.
Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons (+6) - My pick is Atlanta Falcons
I would normally pick Carolina without much thought, but it’s Week 17…weird shit happens. Atlanta is 4-1 against the spread in their five games. They are possibly playing for Mike Smith’s job and this will certainly be Tony Gonzalez’s final game. Carolina is 2-2-1 ATS in their last five games the market corrected itself. I’m picking Atlanta to barely squeak out a cover.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts (-10.5) - My pick is Jacksonville Jaguars
There’s a small chance the Colts could get the #2 or #3 seed, but do they really want it? They beat Kansas City pretty easily on the road last week and would face them in Indy in the first round. The Colts need Cincinnati AND New England to lose to jump to a #2 seed. Jacksonville is still playing hard and this game will be closer than 10 points.
New York Jets at Miami Dolphins (-5.5) - My pick is Miami Dolphins
I’m glad the few teams I missed on a lot this season happen to play each other this week. I will admit that I’m certainly below .500 on the Jets and Dolphins this year. I’m picking the Dolphins since Geno Smith is god awful on the road (he’s 1-6). Take this advice with a grain of salt, I have no confidence handicapping either team this season. They are both so inconsistent.
Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans (-7.5) - My pick is Houston Texans
The Texans do not want to win this game, since if they win and Washington loses, St. Louis will receive the #1 pick in the 2014 NFL Draft. I would like this line if it were a touchdown or less, but that half-point is the dealbreaker. I see a 24-17 game on Sunday…so if you’re betting an over/under, I’d bet under 43.5.
Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings (-3) - My pick is Detroit Lions
I don’t get this line. Does Vegas really think the Vikings will play harder since it’s the last game at the Metrodome? I think that’s preposterous. The Lions have nothing left to play for, but they will prevent a Vikings cover…I may even put a few jellybeans on the moneyline.
Kansas City Chiefs at San Diego Chargers (-10) - My pick is Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City is locked into the #5 seed in the AFC, so they want to get through this week unscathed. I expect we will see a lot of Chase Daniel at quarterback. This game is a 4pm EST game, so San Diego will know if they still have a shot to make the playoffs. If Miami and Baltimore both lose, San Diego will need a win. This is a non-bet, unless you bet right before kickoff.
San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals (+1) - My pick is Arizona Cardinals
I really like Arizona. They have creeped into the playoff picture and need a win and a New Orleans loss to get into the playoffs. Arizona is on a six-game cover streak and I have been riding them the entire time. I am a bit hesitant, since I love betting against teams who played Seattle the previous week. They are going into this game with confidence and I hope they get into the playoffs. They will be a darkhorse in the NFC.
St. Louis Rams at Seattle Seahawks (-11.5) - My pick is St. Louis Rams
Seattle will most likely win this game, but 11.5 points is a lot to ask for in Week 17. Teams often go at about 75% in the last week, unless they are in a ‘win or go home’ game. Give me the points.
Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears (+3) - My pick is Green Bay Packers
Not only will Aaron Rodgers return to Green Bay on Sunday, but Randall Cobb could join him. He’s a ‘maybe’, but he could be a game changer. The Bears had a shot to close out the NFC North last week, but was embarrassed by Philadelphia. Green Bay are in a position they never thought they would be in. I like their chances on Sunday and they will cover.
Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots (-8) - My pick is New England Patriots
The Bills shutout the Dolphins last week, but I don’t see the same result this week. The Patriots could still lose the #2 seed if they lose this game. They also have a shot at getting home-field advantage with a win and a Denver loss. They blew out Baltimore last week and see another one this week. I love New England this week.
Denver Broncos at Oakland Raiders (+11) - My pick is Denver Broncos
Denver is the only team that will cover a double-digit point spread this week. Oakland’s defense is terrible and Denver will have every opportunity to score.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints (-12) - My pick is Tampa Bay Buccaneers
New Orleans is lethal at home, but I like Tampa’s shot at preventing a cover. Greg Schiano’s job is on the line (he may even be fired after a win). Like I said before, double-digit spreads are hard to cover and Week 17 makes it even harder to predict. I’m being conservative and picking Tampa.
Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys (+7) - My pick is Philadelphia Eagles
Philly is dangerous once they have a lead. They can start handing the ball off to LeSean McCoy and eat some clock. I see the Eagles getting a lead early and not giving the Cowboys a chance. Kyle Orton is one of the best backup quarterbacks in the NFL, but he has his work cut out for him.
*These picks are for entertainment purposes
Sweetbob is currently 124-88-10 on the season.
Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on Twitter at @Sweetbo