Sorry about this week’s NFL picks article being postedlate, but I think I ate a bad McRib this week. I know there is really no such thing as a ‘bad McRib’, but I think one found my stomach. I’m fighting through it, so this week’s NFL picks against the spread is short and sweet.
I have a 116-80-10 record against the spread so far this season.
There are five games with double-digit point spreads and 80% of the games are garbage. It’s not a great week to watch NFL games.
In December, weather reports become more important than ever. Those must be looked at before you make a decision. It is also important to look at division records.
Can all five teams cover double-digit point spreads this weekend? Nope.
We pick every NFL game against the spread and throw out a few upsets in Week 16 of the NFL season.
New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers (-3) - My pick is Carolina Panthers
New Orleans doesn’t play well on the road. Until they do, I’m picking against them.
Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins (+3) - My pick is Washington Redskins
I know I’m in the minority here, but I really like Kirk Cousins. Tony Romo and Cousins will both have monster games, since they will be facing horrible defenses. Redskins played well last week in a close defeat. I feel that RGIII may have lost the locker room a bit, so these guys played hard for Cousins. I like the Redskins here, but I’d only put a unit or two down on them.
Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills (+2.5) - My pick is Miami Dolphins
I love the Dolphins in this game. Thad Lewis is starting in place of EJ Manuel, so the Dolphins are the smart play on Sunday.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at St. Louis Rams (-4) - My pick is Tampa Buccaneers
This game will be a close one. I like the Bucs defense, but the Rams have been putting up points against good teams. The Rams may win outright, but I see a 24-21 type of win.
Cleveland Browns at New York Jets (-1.5) - My pick is Cleveland Browns
What a horrible slate of games this week, yikes! The Browns are better than advertised…and the Jets, well, we know how bad they can be. The Jets are a hard team to handicap. They are so inconsistent, but the Browns defense has been solid all season. I like the Browns to cover and I may put a few jellybeans on the moneyline.
Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City Chiefs (-7) - My pick is Kansas City Chiefs
If the season ended today, these teams would play each other. The Colts have already clinched their division and have no reason to show their hand for the Chiefs to scout. The Chiefs are still fighting for the AFC West, so they will come out hot. Give me the Chiefs to cover at Arrowhead.
Minnesota Vikings at Cincinnati Bengals (-8.5) - My pick is Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings have been underrated all season. I know they are 4-9 on the season, but they are 8-6 against the spread. An 8.5 point spread for this game is too big for Cincinnati to cover.
Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars (+5) - My pick is Jacksonville Jaguars
Jacksonville beat Tennessee earlier this season. The Titans are 1-4 since that loss. The Jaguars are on a late-season run and I like them to cover as a home dog.
Denver Broncos at Houston Texans (+10) - My pick is Denver Broncos
Matt Schaub is starting for the Texans, so I can’t pick Houston. Denver still has plenty to play for, so the Broncos are my guys. Also, I expect Peyton Manning to get dangerously close to the passing touchdown record he once owned.
New York Giants at Detroit Lions (-10) - My pick is New York Giants
I can’t remember the last time the Lions covered a double-digit point spread. Wayne Fontes was probably the coach. I don’t see them doing it on Sunday. I hate Eli Manning, but the G-Men will play hard for Tom Coughlin.
Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks (-10.5) - My pick is Arizona Cardinals
Seattle is a beast at home, there’s no questioning that. Arizona is 10-4 ATS this season, the same record against the spread as Seattle. There has been value in picking the Cardinals this season…and the value is still there.
New England Patriots at Baltimore Ravens (-2) - My pick is Baltimore Ravens
New England failed to impress me last week. They will struggle the rest of the season without Rob Gronkowski. The Ravens seem to have their number and I believe in them this week. Baltimore will cover at home.
Oakland Raiders at San Diego Chargers (-10) - My pick is Oakland Raiders
San Diego beat the Denver Broncos last week, so that inflated this week’s point spread. The Raiders are 4-0 ATS in their last four games in San Diego. I know that number is a bit arbitrary, but I like Oakland to cover. The value isn’t there to pick San Diego.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Green Bay Packers (-2.5) - My pick is Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers have been putting up numbers. They are 4-2 the last six weeks, with both losses coming within a touchdown. Green Bay put up numbers against a bad Dallas defense last week and that won’t happen on Sunday. Since Aaron Rodgers won’t play, give me the Steelers to cover and win outright.
Chicago Bears at Philadelphia Eagles (-3) - My pick is Chicago Bears
I view these two teams as equals, so I have to take a different approach to pick this game. The Bears have more size and are more physical on offense. I think Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffrey will be huge factors. The Bears will cover in Philly.
Atlanta Falcons at San Francisco 49ers (-14) - [Monday] - My pick is Atlanta Falcons
I know this is the 49ers last game at Candlestick Park AND Atlanta has been a money pit all season…but I can’t pick a two touchdown point spread at this point in the season. Things are so fluid and difficult to predict this late in the season. The 49ers beat Atlanta in the NFC Championship game last season, so the Falcons have revenge on their mind. San Fran will most likely win, but will fail to cover this bloated point spread.
*These picks are for entertainment purposes
Sweetbob is currently 116-80-10 on the season.
Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on Twitter at @Sweetbob.