Thanks to Denver’s second-half collapse and Houston’s no-show against Jacksonville, I only had a 7-6-1 record in Week 12. I did pick a San Diego moneyline win, so hopefully you put a few jellybeans on that. I have a 91-60-9 record against the spread this year.
At this point in the season, make sure you look at home/road splits and injury reports. Weather reports should also be looked at, but that goes without saying in November and December.
If you’ve been riding a team and they’ve done well against the spread (Carolina), it could be time to look away. The spreads become inflated and the value is sucked out.
There are ZERO teams on bye this week. We actually get a full slate of games to bet. I’m more excited about that than any turkey leg you can put in front of my face.
We pick every NFL game against the spread and throw out a few upsets in Week 12 of the NFL season.
Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions (-7) - My pick is Detroit Lions
The last time Matt Flynn was the Packers’ starter against Detroit, he put up Madden numbers. I don’t expect to see a repeat performance. The Lions have beaten themselves lately with poorly-timed interceptions and fumbles. The Packers defense is near the bottom of the league in turnovers and are one of the few teams without a pick-six. I like Detroit to cover at home against Green Bay on Turkey Day.
Oakland Raiders at Dallas Cowboys (-9) - My pick is Dallas Cowboys
I’m putting my jeallybeans on Mr. November Tony Romo. The Cowboys secondary is atrocious, but can Matt McGloin take advantage? I was dead wrong on McGloin in his first game, but the Cowboys pass rush appears to be back. The numbers say this game will be close to this spread, maybe even slightly in Oakland’s favor, but Romo plays better in November. Give me the Cowboys to cover at home.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens (-3) - My pick is Pittsburgh Steelers
This line is right where it needs to be. Pittsburgh beat Baltimore by three points at Heinz Field and now it’s time for the Ravens to do the same, right? *insert Lee Corso voice* Not so fast, my friend! The Ravens are inconsistent and the Steelers look like they’ve corrected whatever was going wrong at the beginning of the season. They have won three straight and will make it a fourth in Baltimore.
Arizona Cardinals at Philadelphia Eagles (-3) - My pick is Philadelphia Eagles
This could be the game of the week. Arizona is fighting for a playoff spot and the Eagles have a shot at the NFC East title. Arizona is on a four-game winning streak and are 3-1 ATS during that stretch. The Eagles, who are coming off a bye, have won and covered in their last three games. I view these teams as equal at this point in the season. You have to factor in homefield advantage, the ‘West team playing on the East at 1pm’ theory, and the that Philly is coming off a bye. I’m picking the Eagles to cover for those reasons.
Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings (-1) - My pick is Minnesota Vikings
The St. Louis Rams ran all over Chicago last week. If Benny Cunningham can run for 109 yards and average 8.4 per carry, Adrian Peterson will have a monster game. Give me Minnesota to cover at home.
Miami Dolphins at New York Jets (-2) - My pick is New York Jets
Ugh, I’ve been dreading this game. The Dolphins and Jets are the two teams in the NFL that I have little to no feel for. They are so inconsistent and hard to confidently bet on. Both teams are horrible on the road, so for that fact alone, I’m picking the Jets in coin flip game.
New England Patriots at Houston Texans (+7.5) - My pick is New England Patriots
Houston fans are booing them at home and Kubiak could seal his fate with a loss against New England. The Texans look like a team in dire need of being rebuilt. I never would have guessed that going into the season. They looked like a team that could contend for 5+ years, but those hopes are in the rear-view mirror. New England will go into Houston and win big. Bye, Kubiak.
Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts (-4) - My pick is Indianapolis Colts
Indianapolis and Tennessee played two weeks ago on Thursday Night Football. The Colts needed a miraculous comeback to win 30-27. The Colts have been blown out in two of their last three games. They still have a 6-5 record against the spread on the season, but many of those wins came early in the season. The Colts can almost lock up an AFC South title with a win on Sunday. I like Indy to bounce back and cover at home.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers (-8) - My pick is Tampa Bay Buccaneers
I’ve been riding the Bucs since they nearly beat Seattle. They have won all three games since and are 3-0 ATS. Carolina went on a similar streak after beating Minnesota in mid-October. They won six games in a row against the spread, but couldn’t cover the spread against Miami last week. I just like the way the Bucs are playing right now. They are balanced and playing with passion…something that was nonexistent the first half of the season. Carolina may win the game, but eight points is a big spread to cover against a team playing well.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Cleveland Browns (-7) - My pick is Cleveland Browns
I was writing this post at a good speed, but this game made me stop and go get a sandwich. I had to think about it for awhile. I hate both teams, so I had to find something I actually liked. That one thing is Josh Gordon. I hate Brandon Weeden, but I believe Gordon will do special things after the catch. The seven-point spread will be made by Gordon. This game is a stay away from a betting standpoint, but if you’re desperate, the Browns are my pick.
St. Louis Rams at San Francisco 49ers (-8) - My pick is St. Louis Rams
I like the Niners, but I can’t ignore what the Rams have done in their last two games. The 49ers did beat the Rams 35-11 in St. Louis, but that was in late-September. The Rams are an efficient team with Zac Stacey running the ball. His status for this game is still up in the air since he’s going through concussion protocol. If he’s ruled out, stay away from this game, but if he’s playing, bet on the Rams.
Atlanta Falcons at Buffalo Bills (-3) - My pick is Buffalo Bills
Last Thursday, Atlanta had their first win against the spread since mid-October. New Orleans nearly squeaked out a cover, but someone clipped the leg of Pierre Thomas in the last minute of the game to save a touchdown. The Bills are still experimenting in Toronto, where this game will be played. They are still a few years away from contending in the AFC East, but I’ve liked a few things they’ve done this year. I’m picking the Bills to cover in Toronto, because they are a solid team…and I want nothing to do with Atlanta this season.
Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs (+5.5) - My pick is Denver Broncos
I hit on a Denver cover against Kansas City two weeks ago and I’m doubling down on them on Sunday. The Chiefs pass rush suffered a huge blow when Justin Houston and Tamba Hali both went down with injuries. Houston is likely out, but Hali will attempt to go. If KC’s pass rush isn’t 100%, Manning will pick them apart. I like the Broncos to win by more than a touchdown at Arrowhead.
Cincinnati Bengals at San Diego Chargers (-1) - My pick is San Diego Chargers
Cincinnati is a different team on the road. They are 2-4 with three of those games going into overtime. They are also 1-4-1 ATS on the road. This game will be very close, but I really like San Diego at home. They have only had four home games so far and they have home wins over Indianapolis and Dallas and played Denver close there. They are underrated and keep an eye on them for the rest of the season.
New York Giants at Washington Redskins (+1) - My pick is New York Giants
I avoid watching Washington as much as I can. The only player who has impressed me is Alfred Morris. The Giants are playing much better and their pass rush is finally back. They will make Robert Griffin III run for his life. New York will cover on the road.
New Orleans Saints at Seattle Seahawks (-4.5) - [Monday] - My pick is Seattle Seahawks
Drew Brees is a different player outside the Superdome. They are 1-4 ATS on the road this season. Seattle is a tough place to play, especially in big games. Seattle will miss a few cornerbacks due to suspension and injury. This will help Brees, but I have faith Richard Sherman will make up for that. It will be loud and I expect Seattle to win at home by a touchdown.
*These picks are for entertainment purposes
Sweetbob is currently 91-60-9 on the season.
Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on Twitter at @Sweetbob.