I apologize for being a little late with this week’s picks. I’ve stayed up late watching college basketball all week (Jabari Parker is amazing). I went 13-7 with my picks against the spread last week. I am now 111-65-7 on the season.
I like a lot of road teams in Week 13 of the 2013 college football season (November 23rd to be exact). I hate picking road teams this late in the season, but that’s how things shake out this week. There are a few games that seem to factor in last week’s loss or win way too much. You need to look at the last few games to really get a feel for a team.
We pick against the spread for all the big college football games on Saturday, plus a few games in the MAC and American Athletic Conference as always…and a Thursday night game. Enjoy!
Wisconsin at Minnesota (+16.5) - My pick is Minnesota
Wisconsin (9-0-1 ATS) and Minnesota (7-3 ATS) have the best records against the spread in the Big Ten. Wisconsin definitely skewed this game by a few points with their blowout win against Indiana last week. On the other side of the coin, Minnesota is very underrated. They weren’t expected to do much this year, but here they are with the same record as Wisconsin. The Badgers definitely have more beauty points with blowout wins against Indiana, Illinois, Northwestern and Purdue. Minnesota’s four game winning streak hasn’t been pretty. They’ve been grinding out games. I’m picking the Gophers to be within two touchdowns.
Michigan State at Northwestern (+7) - My pick is Michigan State
This one doesn’t need much analysis. Northwestern is a mess at this point and Michigan State is playing its best football. The Spartans will go into Evanston and win this game easily.
Rutgers at Central Florida (-17.5) - My pick is Central Florida
Central Florida got the pants scared off them last weekend. They needed an insane catch to hold off Temple. Central Florida is much better at home and Rutgers has only played three road games all season (losing all three). Everything lines up for Central Florida. They’ll bounce back big and cover at home.
Texas A&M at LSU (-4.5) - My pick is Texas A&M
Texas A&M lack a signature win this season. Their schedule has been light. LSU only has an early season win against Auburn to hang their hat on.. If Johnny Manziel wants to stay in the Heisman race, he needs a monster game here. I like the Aggies to prevent LSU from covering at home AND I may put a few jellybeans on the moneyline.
Baylor at Oklahoma State (+10) - My pick is Baylor
This is Baylor’s toughest opponent so far this season. I like how Oklahoma State has played this season, but Baylor is elite. A 10-point spread is a bit high on the road, but I think they squeeze out a cover.
Missouri at Mississippi (+2.5) - My pick is Missouri
I hate picking so many road covers, but things are just lining up that way this week. I’ve been on the Missouri bandwagon since their Vanderbilt win. Mizzou is 8-1-1 against the spread, but they haven’t faced a team with Ole Miss’s ability to score. This is a true test, but I’m predicting a Mizzou cover.
Arizona State at UCLA (+2.5) - My pick is UCLA
I love UCLA in this game. I have watched their last two games and they are a different team. I have a sports crush on linebacker turned running back Myles Jack. I’m not saying he’s the next Adrian Peterson, but the dude looks like a man among boys. I like UCLA against the spread on Saturday. I know Arizona State is a legit team, but the Bruins are great at home.
BYU at Notre Dame (pk) - My pick is Notre Dame
This game will be close. Notre Dame has played well at home. These teams are alike in many ways. They are all over the place against the spread and have pulled out a few wins they had no business winning. This should be an entertaining game to watch. I like the Irish to win, but it will be close.
Indiana at Ohio State (-35) - My pick is Indiana
I actually changed my pick three times while writing this post. I can argue both sides. Ohio State feels slighted and wants to blow out Indiana to keep in the title hunt, but Indiana is better than how they played last week against Wisconsin. I just think this line is a little too high. This line is rising in Ohio State’s favor, so if you’re picking Indiana, wait until right before kickoff. Indiana’s defense is BAD, but Ohio State’s secondary isn’t elite. Illinois had a few long passing plays against them last week. Ohio State will win big, but 35 is a tall task.
Middle Tennessee at Southern Mississippi (+23) - My pick is Middle Tennessee
This is the section of the post where I pick a non-BCS conference game (I watch a ton of football and have actually watched both teams play this season). Southern Miss is bad, really bad. They haven’t won a game all season and have trouble scoring points. They haven’t scored more than 23 points in a game all season. Middle Tennessee is playing for a bowl game. At this point, they are a borderline bowl team. There will be more bowl-eligible teams than bowl game spots this season. Give me Middle Tennessee in a blowout.
Oklahoma at Kansas State (-4.5) - My pick is Oklahoma
Cincinnati at Houston (-3.5) - My pick is Cincinnati
Nebraska at Penn State (-2) - My pick is Penn State
Utah at Washington State (-1.5) - My pick is Washington State
Boston College at Maryland (pk) - My pick is Boston College
Oregon at Arizona (+21) - My pick is Oregon
Kentucky at Georgia (-23.5) - My pick is Georgia
Connecticut at Temple (-8.5) - My pick is Temple
Pittsburgh at Syracuse (+1) - My pick is Pittsburgh
Michigan at Iowa (-6) - My pick is Michigan
*These picks are for entertainment purposes
Bobby Roberts (otherwise known as Sweetbob) is the creator of ‘America’s White Boy’ and contributor at Project Shanks. His writing has been featured on ESPN’s ‘SportsNation’, Sports Illustrated’s Hot Clicks, Guyspeed, and various other sites. You can follow him on Twitter at @Sweetbob.