Many home dogs performed well last week. I missed on Miami, Carolina and NY Jets last week (just like many others), but I also picked the Cleveland moneyline play and predicted the exact points in the Colts victory. My record against the spread is 67-42-7 on the season.
Say goodbye to any value in the points spreads. The value is now in the decent teams coming off byes or a close loss (New Orleans, Denver, Cincinnati). They are risky, but they’ll payoff at this point in the season. Keep those teams in mind in the coming weeks.
There are only four teams on bye this week. In the last two weeks, as many as six teams were taking the week off. I’m glad there are at least 14 games this week.
We pick every NFL game against the spread and throw out a few upsets in Week 10 of the NFL season.
Oakland Raiders at New York Giants (-7) – My pick is NY Giants
The Raiders had a horrible game last week. They made Nick Foles look like Peyton Manning. The Giants are playing the right team and the right time. They are coming off a bye and have only allowed a total of two touchdowns in their two previous games. Eli Manning is playing smarter. He has not thrown an interception in either game. I look for New York’s anemic pass rush to finally get some sacks. Give me the Giants to cover at home after a bye.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans (-11.5) – My pick is Tennessee Titans
I know I emphasized betting on teams coming off a bye week, but completely ignore that advice when considering the Jaguars. Jake Locker plays well at home and Chris Johnson bailed him out last week on the road against the Rams. I see the Titans winning by at least two touchdowns on Sunday.
Seattle Seahawks at Atlanta Falcons (+6) – My pick is Seattle Seahawks
We can finally say the Falcons are bad, right? They miss Julio Jones and their rushing attack is non-existent. Matt Ryan will be forced to throw the ball against one of best secondaries in the league. Seattle will have this game won early and I expect Marshawn Lynch to have a great fantasy week in garbage time.
Buffalo Bills at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3) – My pick is Pittsburgh Steelers
This line opened with the Steelers being a touchdown favorite, but the public loves Buffalo right now. The Steelers are rarely bet down at home. They are a very public team, but Buffalo is a trendy underdog pick. I don’t blame them since the Bills are 5-4 ATS this season. The bubble will burst at Heinz Field on Sunday. The Steelers will bounce back and win by a touchdown.
Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens (+1.5) – My pick is Cincinnati Bengals
The Ravens are in the same boat as Atlanta, we now know they’re bad. They have trouble scoring and Flacco regressed back to a middle-tier quarterback. If it wasn’t for a Mohamed Sanu drop, the Bengals would have beaten Miami last Thursday. Cincinnati will bounce back and cover on the road.
Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears (+2.5) – My pick is Detroit Lions
This game has been pulled by many sportsbooks due to the possibility of Jay Cutler starting for Chicago. The Lions are coming off a bye and you know I love those teams this week. Detroit has fared well away from home. They are 3-2 ATS on the road this season. This game should go over the 52.5 over/under. I love the Lions to win on the road even if Jay Cutler plays.
St. Louis Rams at Indianapolis Colts (-9.5) – My pick is Indianapolis Colts
The Rams played well with Kellen Clemens at quarterback last week, but their defense couldn’t stop Chris Johnson. The Colts could suffer a ‘letdown game’, considering their last two games were against the Broncos and Texans. They’re not going into this game with any extra motivation. I still think they’ll cover on Sunday. The cover will be close, since the Rams pass rush is solid. Andrew Luck will need to be creative.
Philadelphia Eagles at Green Bay Packers (-1) – My pick is Philadelphia Eagles
Many teams have won with a backup quarterback this season (Browns, Bills, Eagles), but Seneca Wallace is the exact opposite of Aaron Rodgers. He has put up a few 300+ yard passing games filling-in in his career, but I don’t see it this week. I can’t bet against the Eagles after the game Nick Foles had last week, I just can’t. I try to always bet with known information. There is too much unknown about a Wallace-led Packers team. Eddie Lacy should do well, but I don’t think he’s enough. Give me the Eagles to win on the road.
Carolina Panthers at San Francisco 49ers (-6.5) – My pick is San Francisco 49ers
Carolina has played very well the last four weeks, but they beat three teams with backup quarterbacks and a down-trodden Atlanta team. The last time they played on the West Coast, they lost to the Cardinals 22-6. The 49ers are coming off bye…so, to keep up with the trend, give me San Francisco to cover at home.
Denver Broncos at San Diego Chargers (+7) – My pick is Denver Broncos
Denver ran into an inspired Indianapolis team two weeks ago, besides that blemish, they’ve been perfect. The Chargers have only score 30 or more points twice this season, a feat the Broncos have done in every game this season. Denver is coming off a bye (notice a trend?), so give me the Broncos to cover in San Diego.
Houston Texans at Arizona Cardinals (-1) – My pick is Arizona Cardinals
Houston played like a different team without Gary Kubiak in the second-half against the Colts. Case Keenum is Kubiak’s pet project, so his influence will be missed. I like Arizona coming off bye to win the game at home. I’m aware I sound like a broken record.
Dallas Cowboys at New Orleans Saints (-7) – My pick is New Orleans Saints
If this was an earlier game, I’d pick the Cowboys. I can’t remember the last time I won betting on the Cowboys when playing on NBC Sunday Night Football. I know it’s been awhile.This is a personal preference, since the stats point to this game being closer than a touchdown. I just can’t bet any jellybeans on the Cowboys on Sunday night.
Washington Redskins at Minnesota Vikings (+2.5) – [Thursday] – My pick is Washington Redskins
I will keep on betting against the Vikings until they figure out their quarterback situation (or find an actual NFL quarterback to play for them). I like the Redskins on a short week. I know the Redskins defense started out the season horrible against the run (and pass), but they’ve played better the last two months. They have out-rushed their opponents by a total of 457 the past six weeks. I like the Redskins to win by more than a touchdown on Thursday.
Miami Dolphins at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+2.5) – [Monday] – My pick is Miami Dolphins
Ugh, the Monday Night Football games have been brutal this season. Not only is this game horrible, but the Richie Incognito/Jonathan Martin drama will be beaten to the ground by ESPN. There’s really no other storyline worth mentioning. Tampa Bay played Seattle well for three quarters, but blew it in the fourth. That kind of collapse sticks with a team the following week. Miami is a much better team and shouldn’t have a problem covering in Tampa.
*These picks are for entertainment purposes
Sweetbob is currently 62-47-7 on the season.