I went 10-9-1 last week with my picks, bringing my season total to 72-44-7 on the season. It was my worst week so far this season, but still better than many of my sports betting friends.
Week 10 of the 2013 college football season (November 2nd to be exact) has a few rivalry games (Michigan/Michigan State), but college football is still in the lull of finishing conference games. The true rivalry games are still a week or more away.
I want to remind everyone that we’re at a point in the season where favorites often fall or fail to cover the spread. When making a bet, look to see if any teams had a common opponent earlier in the season. Look long and hard at home underdogs and teams trying to lock up bowl eligibility.
We pick against the spread for all the big college football games on Saturday, plus a few games in the MAC and American Athletic Conference as always…we also sneak in a Thursday night game . Enjoy!
Michigan at Michigan State (-6.5) – My pick is Michigan
I’ve went against Michigan State a few times and split. Michigan State’s offense has shown up when it’s needed, but has looked flat at times. Michigan defense leaves a lot to be desired, but they have the edge. They’re coming off a bye and are well-rested going into the game. I like the Wolverines in this game and I might even put a few jellybeans on the moneyline.
South Florida at Houston (-17.5) – My pick is Houston
I’ve been riding Houston all season. The Cougars are currently 7-0 ATS. South Florida was blown out at home against Louisville last week. Houston’s offense is on par or even better than Louisville. Give me Houston in another blowout win.
Georgia at Florida (+2.5) – My pick is Georgia
Both Georgia (1-5-1 ATS) and Florida (2-5 ATS) have made bettors angry this season. I’ve stayed away from both teams after I was bitten by them early in the season. Todd Gurley, Tray Matthews and Michael Bennett will all hopefully suit up for Georgia on Saturday. I’d keep a close eye on their progress this week, but I’m all-in if those guys are back.
Oklahoma State at Texas Tech (-2.5) – My pick is Texas Tech
Texas Tech is coming off their first loss of the season, but I still love them in this game. Oklahoma has played a cupcake schedule thus far. TCU is the toughest in-conference team they’ve played. You could say the same about the Red Raiders, but I really like freshman QB Davis Webb. He has poise and throws darts. Give me Tech to cover in Lubbock.
Minnesota at Indiana (-9.5) – My pick is Minnesota
This line looks too good, right? I feel like I’m missing something. Indiana does have an offense that can put up points, but their defense is equivalent to a high school squad. Minnesota’s passing attack is poor, but can move the ball on the ground. The Gophers only need one more victory to be bowl eligible. They will be motivated in Bloomington. I’m taking the bait, Vegas…give me Minnesota!
Iowa State at Kansas State (-16.5) – My pick is Kansas State
I stuck my neck out for the Cyclones a few weeks ago and it paid off. Unfortunately, I stood by them and their 33 point underdog status against Baylor…and got burned. I know Kansas State is better than their loss to North Dakota State, but they haven’t shown it against the meat of their schedule. I do believe Kansas State will win, but covering will be close. I believe they’ll squeak out a cover in Manhattan.
Miami at Florida State (-22) – My pick is Miami (FL)
I know Florida went into Clemson at night and smoked them, but Miami is a rival. That still means something in college football. Teams ramp their game up, make big plays on both sides of the football. In the last ten meetings, Florida State has only once beaten Miami by over 22 points (2010). These games are often close with eight out of the last ten meetings being decided by a touchdown or less. Florida State may win this game, but I don’t see 22 points.
USC at Oregon State (-5) – My pick is Oregon State
My decision to pick Oregon State is fairly simple. I’ve had a ‘football crush’ on OSU’s QB Sean Mannion all season. He’s one of the best quarterbacks in the nation. The Beavers are coming off a battle with Stanford. USC have trouble scoring against better than average defenses. Oregon State has one of those, so give me Oregon State to win big.
Tennessee at Missouri (-10.5) – My pick is Missouri
Missouri still isn’t getting any love from the public. The line opened up at -13, but has already been bet 2.5 points down. I’m still a Mizzou believer. The Vols are coming off a bad loss to Alabama and exposed their weaknesses. I think Mizzou will bounce back and win by two touchdowns at home.
Tulane at Florida Atlantic (-3.5) – My pick is Tulane
This is the section of the post where I preview a non-BCS conference game (I watch a ton of football and have actually watched both teams play this season). This seems like a trap game to me, since I don’t understand how Tulane is the underdog. Once again, Vegas…I’m eating up that bait. Give me Tulane AND I may end up putting a few jellybeans on the moneyline.
Arizona State at Washington State (+12.5) – My pick is Arizona State
Wisconsin at Iowa (+9.5) – My pick is Iowa
West Virginia at TCU (-13.5) – My pick is TCU
Arizona at California (+16) – My pick is Arizona
Clemson at Virginia (+17) – My pick is Clemson
Northern Illinois at UMass (+23.5) – My pick is Northern Illinois
Auburn at Arkansas (+8) – My pick is Auburn
UTEP at Texas A&M (-45.5) – My pick is UTEP
Pittsburgh at Georgia Tech (-10) – My pick is Georgia Tech
Hawaii at Utah State (-23) – My pick is Utah State
*These picks are for entertainment purposes