Say goodbye to any value in the points spreads. The value is now in the decent teams with a bad record (Atlanta, NY Giants, Pittsburgh). Those plays are risky, but they’ll payoff this week. Keep those teams in mind in the coming weeks. You could hit on a few home underdog moneyline plays.
We pick every NFL game against the spread and throw out a few upsets in Week 7 of the NFL season.
St. Louis Rams at Carolina Panthers (-6) – My pick is Carolina
Carolina is such and up and down team this year, but I like them at home against the Rams, another up and down team. When teams are inconsistent, I look at the quarterback position. I pick whichever team has the better QB. Using that method, give me Cam Newton and the Panthers.
Cincinnati Bengals at Detroit Lions (-2.5) – My pick is Detroit
What happened to the Bengals? Is there a ‘Hard Knocks’ curse? Their offense hit a brick wall and only their defense have kept them in games. The Lions are the exact opposite. Their offense has bailed out their defense all season. I like the Lions offense more than I like the Bengals defense.
Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins (-7.5) – My pick is Buffalo
I haven’t liked Miami all season. They were over-hyped at the start of the season and they’re still getting a few more points in spreads than they should. The Bills have scurried around signing quarterbacks to fill-in while rookie EJ Manuel is out with an injury. Last week against Cincinnati, Thad Lewis pulled off the upset. I like the spark in his Bills team and think they’ll play Miami close.
San Diego Chargers at Jacksonville Jaguars (+7.5) – My pick is San Diego
I was impressed with San Diego’s win against the Colts on Monday Night Football. They kept Andrew Luck off the field. They didn’t score many points in the process, but they did enough to win. I feel extremely confident they’ll cover a 7 1/2 spread on the road against the winless Jacksonville…who are 1-5 ATS on the season.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons (-7) – My pick is Atlanta
On paper, Atlanta is 1-4, but we all know they’re better than their record…but not by much. Everyone assumed they would be a playoff team and contend for the NFC Championship. The injury bug bit them pretty hard with the loss of Julio Jones for the season. Tampa Bay rookie QB Mike Glennon played well against Philly last week, but he has a long way to go. I’m taking Atlanta to cover the spread at home.
Chicago Bears at Washington Redskins (-1) – My pick is Chicago
Until Robert Griffin III shows me he’s 100%, I can’t pick the Redskins. Chicago (1-4-1 ATS) and Washington (1-4) haven’t fared well against the spread this season. They’re both very ‘public’, so you rarely get value in their point spreads. I’m taking the points in this game.
New England Patriots at New York Jets (+4) – My pick is New England
I know the Patriots only beat the Jets by a field goal in their previous game, but I’m not a Jets believer. New England has squeaked by teams all season, but I don’t see a close game at the Meadowlands on Sunday. Belichick will have a way to confuse Geno Smith. AFC East teams rarely play two solid games against the Patriots in a season. I’ll take New England by at least a touchdown.
Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5) – My pick is Dallas
Vegas does not believe in the Cowboys this season…and the public is agreeing with them. The line opened up at -1 and has been bet up. Philly did look good last week, but (assuming that he starts) can Nick Foles do it again? I don’t see it. Give me the points.
San Francisco 49ers at Tennessee Titans (+4) – My pick is San Francisco
The Titans played Seattle tough last week, but the Seahawks made a few bonehead plays that kept the Titans in the game. They are a very sneaky team. The Titans are 4-1-1 ATS this season so far. I’d be a bit torn with my pick if this was a 1 o’clock game, but it’s at 4:05pm EST. This line will be close to the final score. I’m personally staying away from this game, but to handicap the game, I’ll pick the Niners.
Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs (-6.5) – My pick is Kansas City
The Texans have yet to cash against the spread this season (0-6 ATS) and the undefeated Chiefs are 5-1 ATS.. You would assume they’re some value in this point spread. The Texans have to win against the spread at some point, right? At this point in the week (Thursday), it looks like Matt Schaub could be ruled out for this game, so this will not be the week Houston beats the spread. I don’t like T.J. Yates against KC’s defense. I’ll take KC by at least a touchdown.
Cleveland Browns at Green Bay Packers (-10) – My pick is Green Bay
The Packers will miss Randall Cobb in this contest, but they have a healthy Eddie Lacy. It is hard to cover a double-digit point spread in the NFL, but the Packers have the firepower to do it.
Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers (-1) – My pick is Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh ended their slide last week with a nice win against the Jets. They had a bye week to get things straightened out. The Ravens look like a team that needs a bye. Their last three games have been within a field goal and they lost two of those contests. Give me Pittsburgh in another close game.
Denver Broncos at Indianapolis Colts (+6.5) – My pick is Denver
This game opened in the ‘Vegas Zone’ with a +4 point spread. The public adjusted that line up to a +6.5 with heavy action on Denver. I agree with the public. Colts are a good team with a solid defense, but Peyton Manning is motivated to put up ‘Star Wars numbers’ (Jim Irsay’s phrase) in Indy. The crowd will be confused who to cheer for. Expect a lot of cheers if Peyton throws a touchdown pass. I have to pick the Broncos by more than a touchdown.
Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals (+6) – [Thursday] – My pick is Seattle
I really hate Thursday night games. They are sloppy and hard to watch. Favorites have had a hard time covering on Thursday, but I like Seattle in this one. The last time both of these teams faced each other, Seattle beat Arizona 58-0. I know Arizona is a different team, but that kind of score is hard to forget. Give me Seattle to win by 10+ on the road.
Minnesota Vikings at New York Giants (-3.5) – [Monday] – My pick is New York Giants
Minnesota named newly-signed Josh Freeman as the starter for Monday night’s game against the Giants. This situation never turns out well. Freeman has only had the playbook for a handful of days and hasn’t had the opportunity to work with this receivers much. The one thing the Bucs have going for them is that Darrelle Revis will make Eli Manning work for completions. This game will be close, but I like the G-Men to finally get their first win of the season.
*These picks are for entertainment purposes
Sweetbob is currently 42-26-7 on the season.