I went 11-7-1 last week with my picks, bringing my season total to 50-28-45 on the season. I didn’t match the previous week’s domination, but 11-7-1 is solid.
Week 8 of the 2013 college football season (October 19th to be exact) has possibly the biggest marquee game all season, Florida State at Clemson.
We’re at a point in the season where favorites often fall or fail to cover the spread. When making a bet, look to see if any teams had a common opponent earlier in the season. That could help you with your decision. Injury reports and weather conditions also grow more and more important deeper in the college football season.
We pick against the spread for all the big college football games on Saturday…we also sneak in a few Thursday night games in the MAC and American Athletic Conference. Enjoy!
TCU at Oklahoma State (-7) – My pick is Oklahoma State
I’m not a fan of this line. It’s right where it should be, but damn, this one is a tough bet. TCU isn’t as dominant as in past years, but have played teams close. Neither team has fared well against the spread this season (both with sub .500 records ATS). OSU’s QB J.W. Walsh isn’t putting the numbers Brandon Weeden had under coach Mike Gundy, but they’ll put it together in Stillwater and cover the spread at home.
Florida State at Clemson (+3) – My pick is Clemson
I’ve been riding both Florida State and Clemson this season. The line opened at 1.5 in Clemson’s favor, but has already been bet down by 4.5 points in just a few days. I expect this line to settle somewhere around +3 or +3.5. I’d hold off until Friday to bet if you’re betting in Clemson’s favor. The Tigers have been great at home and I have to factor that into my decision. Jameis Winston and Tajh Boyd are two of my favorite quarterbacks to watch in college football. They are accurate both intermediate and deep. I have to take Clemson at home with points. This game will be one of the best marquee games this season.
USC at Notre Dame (-3) – My pick is Notre Dame
There’s rarely any value in Notre Dame’s point spreads. This is why they are 1-4-1 ATS this season. I never feel great betting on Notre Dame, but with all the drama surrounding the Trojans this season, I feel good picking the Irish at home.
LSU at Mississippi (+8) – My pick is Ole Miss
My gut and the stats tell me LSU. Ole Miss are on a three-game losing stream. They played Texas A&M and Auburn close, but LSU is a better than both of those teams. I wish this line was +6.5, but I have a feeling this line may end up closer to +10 by kickoff.
Miami at North Carolina (+9.5) – My pick is Miami (FL)
I’ve watched nearly every North Carolina game this season and I’m gradually becoming less impressed with their play. They lost to Virginia Tech, East Carolina and Georgia Tech the last three games. They are coming off a bye, but so are the Hurricanes. I love this line and think Miami will win big over UNC on the road.
Florida at Missouri (+3.5) – My pick is Mizzou
I wasn’t a believer in Mizzou until last week. I thought their record was inflated by beating weak teams. They changed my mind in last week’s win at Georgia. Missouri has been undervalued all season with a record of 5-0-1 ATS. On the other side of the coin, I haven’t liked Florida all season. They have trouble covering spreads and I don’t like them as a team. Give me the Missouri Tigers to cover AND put me down for a few jellybeans on the moneyline.
UCLA at Stanford (-6) – My pick is UCLA
Before last week, I had UCLA in the same boat with Missouri. They had to show me who they are before I bet on them. Well, the Bruins did just that with a win at home against Cal. UCLA is perfect ATS this season. This pick is 100% based on head-to-head opponents, mostly Utah. They both played at Utah in the last two weeks. UCLA came out with a victory and Stanford lost. I think these teams are even, so give me UCLA and the points.
Indiana at Michigan (-7) – My pick is Michigan
Indiana fooled me last week. I’ve went a decade without betting on them in college football and the ONE week I do, they disappoint me. I’m not going down that route this week. Michigan will be hungry after their overtime loss in Happy Valley. If Michigan State can put 42 points on IU, Michigan should match or exceed that total against the Hoosiers.
Iowa at Ohio State (-17) – My pick is Ohio State
Ohio State can put up crooked numbers on the scoreboard. Iowa has a very good defense, but the Buckeyes are a national championship contender. The lowest point total they’ve scored all season is 31 and Iowa has only exceeded that once against a horrible Western Michigan team. Give me Ohio State to win big in The Shoe on Saturday.
Iowa State at Baylor (-34) – My pick is Iowa State
Give me the Cyclones all day against the spread. They were 14 point dogs at Texas Tech last week and won ATS. Baylor did not look good against Kansas State last week and did not cover the spread. I love Baylor, don’t get me wrong, but Iowa State is better than Vegas believes. Baylor will win this game, but not by more than five touchdowns.
Texas Tech at West Virginia (+6) – My pick is Texas Tech
Central Florida at Louisville (-12.5) – My pick is Central Florida
South Carolina at Tennessee (+7) – My pick is South Carolina
Colorado State at Wyoming (-6.5) – My pick is Wyoming
Ball State at Western Michigan (+19) – My pick is Ball State
Utah at Arizona (-4) – My pick is Utah
BYU at Houston (+10) – My pick is Houston
Auburn at Texas A&M (-12.5) – My pick is Auburn
Duke at Virginia (-2) – My pick is Duke
Syracuse at Georgia Tech (-7.5) – My pick is Georgia Tech
*These picks are for entertainment purposes